Who’s Got the “Best Shot”? Race-Gender Stereotypes and Primary Elections

Abstract

This article draws on an original dataset of all candidates for the U.S. House (2006–2020) to analyze the impact of both gender and race in primary elections across district competitiveness. I argue that stereotypes related to women’s perceived liberalism can either pose obstacles or prove advantageous depending on the district context, and I ask how these patterns differ when race and intersectionality are integrated into analyses. I first employ single-axis models to examine candidacies and election outcomes for women across party, before turning to an intersectional approach to detect observational evidence of the impact of race-gender stereotyping for white women and women of color candidates. I find that while Democratic women overall win primaries more often in competitive and safe Republican districts, this pattern is driven by white Democratic women succeeding in precisely the districts where one would expect stereotypes about women’s liberalism should disadvantage them. Conversely, both white women and women of color in the Republican Party are more likely to win in safe Democratic districts. My findings broaden our view of when and where identity matters most at the primary stage and call into question conclusions from extant work suggesting voters apply stereotypes that penalize all women candidates.