Deceptively Stable? How the Stability of Aggregate Abortion Attitudes Conceals Partisan Induced Shifts

Abstract

The 2022 Dobbs decision, striking down constitutional protection for abortion, sent shockwaves through the American political system. For the 50 years prior, however, public opinion on abortion was distinctive for its stability, with almost the same percent of Americans supporting legal abortion in the twenty-first century as in the 1970s. This stasis persisted during a period of dramatic change in the political landscape. We employ General Social Survey (GSS) data to explore the ways that partisanship, as well as demographic and attitude changes among key groups, have contributed to underlying shifts in abortion attitudes and, on an aggregate level, the appearance of stability. We show that demographic changes combined with meaningful attitude change balance each other out leading to deceptive stability. We also show the growing power of partisanship as a predictor of abortion attitudes for both Democrats and Republicans, especially Republican women, who have become more opposed to legal abortion than Republican men. Our findings provide a baseline for understanding abortion attitudes in post-Roe America and insights as to where continuity and change can be expected.