We investigate the path-dependent effects of subnational variation in authoritarian state-building policies on voter–party linkages after regime change. We argue that long-term patterns of regional favoritism and marginalization produce patterned regional heterogeneity in the attitudes and preferences linking voters with parties. Postcolonial state-building policies create “winners” and “losers” from particular interventions, in turn shaping local citizens’ preferences over these policy areas and forming axes of contestation ready to be activated by democratic politics. We argue that attitudes associated with regionally consistent state-building policies should function uniformly as determinants of vote choice across regions, while attitudes associated with regionally divergent state-building policies should experience patterned regional variation in their effect on vote choice. We develop these arguments empirically with historical analysis of Tunisian state-building and an original exit survey of voters in five diverse regions conducted on the day of Tunisia’s first democratic legislative elections in 2014. Our findings contribute to a growing literature on the importance of analyzing political transformation at the subnational level.
AlexanderChristopher. 2010. Tunisia: Stability and Reform in the Modern Maghrib. London: Routledge.
2.
AndersonLisa. 1986. The State and Social Transformation in Tunisia and Libya, 1820-1980. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
3.
AtkesonLonna Rae. 1999. “‘Sure I Voted for the Winner!’ Overreport of the Primary Vote for the Party Nominee in the National Elections.” Political Behavior21 (3): 197–215.
4.
BatesRobert H.1974. “Ethnic Competition and Modernization in Contemporary Africa.” Comparative Politics Studies6 (4): 457–84.
5.
BeissingerMark R.KotkinStephen. 2014. “The Historical Legacies of Communism: An Empirical Agenda.” In Historical Legacies of Communism in Russia and Eastern Europe, edited by BeissingerMark R.KotkinStephen, 1–27. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
6.
BellinEva. 1991. “Tunisian Industrialists and the State.” In Tunisia: The Political Economy of Reform, edited by ZartmanIra William, 45–66. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
7.
BellinEva. 2002. Stalled Democracy: Capital, Labor, and the Paradox of State-Sponsored Development. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
BrusztLaszloStarkDavid. 1991. “Remaking the Political Field in Hungary: From the Politics of Confrontation to the Politics of Competition.” Journal of International Affairs45 (1): 201–45.
10.
BuehlerMatt. 2015. “Continuity through Co-optation: Rural Politics and Regime Resilience in Morocco and Mauritania.” Mediterranean Politics20 (3): 364–85.
11.
BunceValerie. 2005. “The National Idea: Imperial Legacies and Post-Communist Pathways in Eastern Europe.” East European Politics and Societies19 (3): 406–42.
12.
BurgessRobin Remi JedwabMiguelEdwardMorjariaAmeetMiquelGerard Padroi. 2015. “The Value of Democracy: Evidence from Road Building in Kenya.” The American Economic Review105 (6): 1817–51.
13.
CavatortaFrancescoHaugbølleRikke Hostrup. 2012. “The End of Authoritarian Rule and the Mythology of Tunisia under Ben Ali.” Mediterranean Politics17 (2): 179–95.
14.
CollierRuth BerinsCollierDavid. 1991. Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
15.
CrowDavidJohnsonMartinBowler.Shaun2015. “Jumping on the Bandwagon or Jumping Ship? Testing Alternative Theories of Vote Share Overestimation.” Working Paper, California: University of California Riverside.
16.
DardenKeithGrzymala-BusseAnna. 2006. “The Great Divide: Literacy, Nationalism, and the Communist Collapse.” World Politics59:83–115.
17.
GeddesBarbara. 1995. “A Comparative Perspective on the Leninist Legacy in Eastern Europe.” Comparative Political Studies28 (2): 239–74.
18.
GelmanAndrewKingGary. 1993. “Why Are American Presidential Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes Are so Predictable?” British Journal of Political Science23 (4): 409–51.
19.
HerbstJeffrey. 2000. States and Power in Africa. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
20.
HibouBeatrice. 2011. The Force of Obedience: The Political Economy of Repression in Tunisia. Cambridge: Polity Press.
21.
HickenAllenMartinez-KuhontaErik. 2015. Party System Institutionalization in Asia: Democracies, Autocracies, and the Shadows of the Past. New York: Cambridge University Press.
22.
HodlerRolandRaschkyPaul A.2014. “Regional Favoritism.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics129 (2): 995–1033.
23.
InglotTomasz. 2003. “Historical Legacies, Institutions, and the Politics of Social Policy in Hungary and Poland, 1989–1999.” In Capitalism and Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe: Assessing the Legacy of Communist Rule, edited by EkiertGrzegorzHansonStephen E., 210–47. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
24.
JheeByong-Kuen. 2008. “Economic Origins of Electoral Support for Authoritarian Successors: A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting in New Democracies.” Comparative Political Studies41 (3): 362–88.
25.
KasaraKimuli. 2007. “Tax Me If You Can: Ethnic Geography, Democracy, and the Taxation of Agriculture in Africa.” American Political Science Review101 (1): 159–72.
26.
KitscheltHerbert. 1995. “Formation of Party Cleavages in Post-Communist Democracies: Theoretical Propositions.” Party Politics1 (4): 447–72.
27.
KopsteinJeffrey S.ReillyDavid A.2000. “Geographic Diffusion and the Transformation of the Postcommunist World.” World Politics53 (1): 1–37.
28.
KramonEricPosnerDaniel N.2013. “Who Benefits from Distributive Politics? How the Outcome One Studies Affects the Answer One Gets.” Perspectives on Politics11 (2): 461–74.
29.
KurzmanCharles. 2004. The Unthinkable Revolution in Iran. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
30.
La PorteJodyLussierDanielle N.2011. “What Is the Leninist Legacy? Assessing Twenty Years of Scholarship.” Slavic Review70 (3): 637–54.
MainwaringScott. 1989. Transitions to Democracy and Democratic Consolidation: Theoretical and Comparative Issues. Working paper, US: University of Notre Dame.
33.
MarkowskiRadoslaw. 1997. “Political Parties and Ideological Spaces in East Central Europe.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies30 (3): 221–54.
MigdalJoel S.1988. Strong Societies and Weak States: State-Society Relations and State Capabilities in the Third World. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
36.
MurphyEmma C.1999. Economic and Political Change in Tunisia from Bourguiba to Ben Ali. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
37.
O’DonnellGuillermo. 1993. “On the State, Democratization, and Some Conceptual Problems: A Latin American View with Glances at Some Postcommunist Countries.” World Development21 (8): 1355–69.
38.
O’DonnellGuillermoSchmitterPhilippe. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
39.
PepinskyThomas B.2014. “Subnational Peripheries and the Comparative Method.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington DC, August 28–31.
40.
PerkinsKenneth. 2014. A History of Modern Tunisia. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
41.
Pop-ElechesCristianPop-ElechesGrigore. 2012. “Targeted Government Spending and Political Preferences.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science73:285–320.
Pop-ElechesGrigoreTuckerJoshua A.2013. “Communist Socialization and Post-Communist Economic and Political Attitudes.” Electoral Studies33:77–89.
44.
RichardsAlanWaterburyJohn. 2007. A Political Economy of the Middle East. Boulder: Westview Press.
45.
RiedlRachel Beatty. 2014. Authoritarian Origins of Democratic Party Systems in Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press.
46.
RudebeckLars. 1970. “Developmental Pressure and Political Limits: A Tunisian Example.” The Journal of Modern African Studies8 (2): 173–98.
47.
SalemNorma. 1984. Habib Bourguiba, Islam and the Creation of Tunisia. Abingdon: Routledge Kegan & Paul.
48.
ShleiferAndreiVishnyRobert W.1994. “Politicians and firms.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics3:995–1025.
49.
SnyderRichard. 2001. “Scaling down: The Subnational Comparative Method.” Studies in Comparative Inter-national Development36 (1): 93–110.
50.
StangerAllison. 2004. “How Important Are New Constitutions for Democratic Consolidation? Lessons from the Post-Communist States.” Democratization11 (3): 1–26.
TuckerJoshua A.2006. Regional Economic Voting: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Czech Republic, 1990-1999. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
53.
WittenbergJason. 2013. “What is a Historical Legacy?” Working paper, Berkeley: University of California.
54.
YousfiHela. 2018. Trade Unions and the Arab Revolutions: The Case of UGTT. New York: Routledge.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
