The literature on the transnational dimension of civil wars points to transnational ethnic kin as an important catalyst that initiates and sustains civil wars. Ethnic ties that transcend national boundaries, these studies argue, intensify the conflict by providing sanctuaries as well as human and material resources to the rebels. In this study, I argue that the same transborder ethnic ties make it more difficult for the government to achieve a decisive victory and contribute to outcomes more favorable to rebels. These networks can help create a more balanced relationship between an ethnic group and a previously antagonistic state by increasing the political, economic, and military costs of repression for the government. An analysis of ethnic civil wars starting and ending between 1950 and 2006 demonstrates that civil wars fought by ethnically mobilized rebel groups are more likely to be negotiated and settled in favor of rebels who have ethnic kin in a neighboring country.
BarbieriK.KeshkO.PollinsB.2008. “Correlates of War Project Trade Data Set Codebook.” Version 2.01. http://correlatesofwar.org (accessed September 20, 2014).
2.
Box-SteffensmeierJ. M.JonesB. S.2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
3.
BrandtT. B.MasonT. D.GursesM.PetrovskyN.RadinD.2008. “When and How the Fighting Stops: Explaining the Duration and Outcome of Civil Wars.” Defence and Peace Economics19 (6): 415–34.
4.
CedermanL. E.GirardinL.GleditschK. S.2009. “Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars.” World Politics61 (3): 403–37.
5.
CedermanL. E.GleditschK. S.SalehyanI.WucherpfennigJ.2013. “Transborder Ethnic Kin and Civil War.” International Organization67 (Spring): 389–410.
6.
CedermanL. E.WeidmannN. B.GleditschK. S.2011. “Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison.” American Political Science Review105 (3): 478–95.
7.
CedermanL. E.WimmerA.MinB.2010. “Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis.” World Politics62 (1): 87–119.
8.
CetinyanR.2002. “Ethnic Bargaining in the Shadow of Third-Party Intervention.” International Organization56 (3): 645–77.
9.
ChapmanT.RoederP.2007. "Partition as a Solution to Wasr of Nationalism." American Political Sceince Review101 (4): 677-691.
10.
CollierP.1999. “On the Economic Consequences of Civil War.” Oxford Economic Papers51 (1): 168–83.
11.
DeRouenK. R.SobekD.2004. “The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome.” Journal of Peace Research41 (3): 303–20.
12.
DoyleM.SambanisN.2000. “International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis.” American Political Science Review94 (4): 779–801.
13.
FearonJ. D.LaitinD. D.2003. “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War.” American Political Science Review97 (1): 75–90.
14.
ForsbergE.2013. “Do Ethnic Dominos Fall? Evaluating Domino Effects of Granting Territorial Concessions to Separatist Groups.” International Studies Quarterly57 (2): 329–40.
GleditschK. S.2007. “Transnational Dimensions of Civil War.” Journal of Peace Research44 (3): 293–309.
17.
GleditschN. P.WallensteenP.ErikssonM.SollenbergM.StrendH.2002. “Armed Conflict 1946–2001: A New Data Set.” Journal of Peace Research39 (5): 615–37.
18.
GunterM. M.1997. The Kurds and the Future of Turkey. New York: St. Martin’s Press.
19.
GurrT. R.1993. “Why Minorities Rebel: A Global Analysis of Communal Mobilization and Conflict since 1945.” International Political Science Review14 (2): 161–201.
20.
GursesM.2010. “Partition, Democracy, and Turkey’s Kurdish Minority.” Nationalism and Ethnic Politics16 (3): 337–53.
21.
GursesM.2014. “From War to Democracy: Transborder Kurdish Conflict and Democratization” In Conflict, the Kurds, and Democratization in the Middle East: Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, edited by RomanoDavidGursesMehmet. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 249-265.
22.
GursesM.RostNicolas. 2013. “Sustaining the Peace after Ethnic Civil Wars.” Conflict Management and Peace Science30 (5): 469-491.
HarbomL.WallensteenP.2010. “Armed Conflict, 1946-2009.” Journal of Peace Research47 (4): 501–509.
25.
HegreH.EllingsenT.GleditschN. P.GatesS.2001. “Towards a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change and Civil War, 1816–1992.” American Political Science Review95 (1): 34–48.
26.
HegreH.SambanisN.2006. "Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset." Journal of Conflict Resolution50 (4): 508-535.
27.
HeraclidesA.1990. “Secessionist Minorities and External Involvement.” International Organization44 (3): 341–78.
28.
HestonA.SummersR.AtenB.2009. “Penn World Table Version 6.3.” Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, August.
29.
HorowitzD. L.1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press.
30.
JenneE.2004. “A Bargaining Theory of Minority Demands: Explaining the Dog That Did Not Bite in 1990s Yugoslavia.” International Studies Quarterly48 (4): 729–54.
31.
KangS.MeernikJ.2005. “Civil War Destruction and the Prospects for Economic Growth.” Journal of Politics67 (1): 88–109.
32.
KaufmannC.1996. “Possible and Impossible Solutions to Ethnic Civil Wars.” International Security20 (4): 136–75.
33.
KeckM.SikkinkK.1998. Activists beyond Borders: Advocacy Networks in International Politics. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
MasonT. D.FettP. J.1996. “How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach.” Journal of Conflict Resolution40 (4): 546–68.
41.
MasonT. D.WeingartenJ. P.FettP. J.1999. “Win Loose, Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars.” Political Research Quarterly52 (2): 239–68.
42.
Minorities at Risk Project. 2009. Minorities at Risk Dataset. College Park: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar/ (accessed June 2, 2010).
43.
OlsonR. W.1989. The Emergence of Kurdish Nationalism and the Sheikh Said Rebellion, 1880-1925. Austin: University of Texas Press.
44.
QuinnJ. M.MasonT. D.GursesM.2007. “Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence.” International Interactions33 (2): 167–93.
45.
ReganP. M.2002. “Third Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts.” Journal of Conflict Resolution46 (1): 55–73.
46.
Reynal-QuerolM.2002. “Political Systems, Stability and Civil Wars.” Defence and Peace Economics13 (6): 465–83.
47.
RomanoD.2006. The Kurdish Nationalist Movement: Opportunity, Mobilization and Identity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
48.
SaidemanM. S.2002. “Discrimination in International Relations: Analyzing External Support for Ethnic Groups.” Journal of Peace Research39 (1): 27–50.
49.
SaidemanM. S.AyresR. W.2000. “Determining the Causes of Irredentism: Logit Analyses of Minorities at Risk Data from the 1980s and 1990s.” Journal of Politics62 (4): 1126–44.
50.
SalehyanI.2007. “Transnational Rebels: Neighboring States as Sanctuary for Rebel Groups.” World Politics59 (1): 217–42.
51.
SalehyanI.2010. Transnational Insurgencies and the Escalation of Regional Conflict: Lessons for Iraq and Afghanistan. Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College.
52.
SambanisN.2000. “Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War: An Empirical Critique of the Theoretical Literature.” World Politics52 (July): 437–83.
53.
SambanisN.2001. “Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes? A Theoretical and Empirical Inquiry (Part 1).” Journal of Conflict Resolution45 (3): 259–82.
54.
SambanisN.2004. “What Is Civil War? Conceptual and Empirical Complexities of an Operational Definition.” Journal of Conflict Resolution48 (6): 814–58.
55.
SingerJ. D.BremerS.StuckeyJ.1972. “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965.” In Peace, War, and Numbers, edited by RussettBruce, 19–48. Beverly Hills: SAGE.
56.
TezcurG. M.2010. “When Democratization Radicalizes: The Kurdish Nationalist Movement in Turkey.” Journal of Peace Research47 (6): 775–89.
57.
TezcurG. M.2013a. “Farewell to Life: Participation in the Kurdish Insurgency.” Paper presented at the Middle East Studies Association Annual Meeting, New Orleans, October.
58.
TezcurG. M.2013b. “Prospects for Resolution of the Kurdish Question: A Realist Perspective.” Insight Turkey15 (2): 69–84.
Van der BekenC.2012. Unity in Diversity: Federalism as a Mechanism to Accommodate Ethnic Diversity: The Case of Ethiopia. LIT Verlag Münster. http://books.google.com/books?id=W-Ec7HX-40YC (accessed September 20, 2014).
WalterB. F.2006. “Information, Uncertainty, and the Decision to Secede.” International Organization60 (1): 105–35.
63.
WimmerA.CedermanL. E.MinB.2009. “Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict: A Global Configurational Analysis of a New Global Data Set.” American Sociological Review74 (2): 316–37.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
