What Comes After Black Swans and Gray Rhinos? An Organizational Perspective of Disruption

Abstract

The interface between organizations and their environments greatly interests organizational scholars. A key research stream—how changes in the external environment produce changes within organizations—is especially relevant in today’s turbulent economic and political context. We develop a theoretical model that considers external events and organizational routine changes as key components of disruption. We first draw on event system theory to derive and describe the external event dimensions of magnitude, coupling, clustering, and space, presented in a circumplex model. Then, we use an information-processing lens to theorize how those dimensions directly and contingently influence organizational routine change. We discuss our model’s implications for the effective management of organizations amid constant disruption.

Keywords

disruption event system theory shared mental models organizational routines

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Ahlstrom

Arregle

Hitt

M. A.

Qian

Faems

(2020). Managing technological, sociopolitical, and institutional change in the new normal. Journal of Management Studies, 57(3), 411–437. https://doi.org/10.1111/joms.12569

Allport

F. H.

(1940). An event-system theory of collective action: With illustrations from economic and political phenomena and the production of war. The Journal of Social Psychology, 11(2), 417–445. https://doi.org/10.1080/00224545.1940.9918762

Aroles

McLean

(2016). Rethinking stability and change in the study of organizational routines: Difference and repetition in a newspaper-printing factory. Organization Science, 27(3), 535–550. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2015.1035

Ashmos

D. P.

Huber

G. P.

(1987). The systems paradigm in organization theory: Correcting the record and suggesting the future. Academy of Management Review, 12(4), 607–621. https://doi.org/10.2307/258067

Astley

W. G.

de Ven

A. H. V.

(1983). Central perspectives and debates in organization theory. Administrative Science Quarterly, 28(2), 245–273. https://doi.org/10.2307/2392620

Baker

Bloom

Davis

Kost

Sammon

Viratyosin

(2020). The unprecedented stock market impact of COVID-19. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper w26945. https://doi.org/10.3386/w26945

Barton

M. A.

Christianson

Myers

C. G.

Sutcliffe

(2020). Resilience in action: Leading for resilience in response to Covid-19. BMJ Leader, 4(3), 117–119. https://doi.org/10.1136/leader-2020-000260

Becker

M. C.

(2004). Organizational routines: A review of the literature. Industrial and Corporate Change, 13(4), 643–678. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dth026

Becker

M. C.

(2005). The concept of routines: Some clarifications. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 29(2), 249–262. https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bei031

10.

Bertalanffy

L. V.

(1950). An outline of general system theory. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 1(2), 134–165. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/I.2.134

11.

Brammer

Branicki

Linnenluecke

M. K.

(2020). COVID-19, societalization, and the future of business in society. Academy of Management Perspectives, 34(4), 493–507. https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2019.0053

12.

Burke

C. S.

Stagl

K. C.

Salas

Pierce

Kendall

(2006). Understanding team adaptation: A conceptual analysis and model. Journal of Applied Psychology, 91(6), 1189–1207. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.91.6.1189

13.

Cannon-Bowers

J. A.

Salas

Converse

(1993). Shared mental models in expert team decision-making. In CastellanJr

N. J.

(Ed.), Individual and group decision-making: Current issues (pp. 221–246). Lawrence Erlbaum.

14.

Chesbrough

(2010). Business model innovation: Opportunities and barriers. Long Range Planning, 43(2–3), 354–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lrp.2009.07.010

15.

Christensen

C. M.

(1997). The innovator’s dilemma: When new technologies cause great firms to fail. Harvard Business School Press.

16.

Cohen

M. D.

Bacdayan

(1994). Organizational routines are stored as procedural memory: Evidence from a laboratory study. Organization Science, 5(4), 554–568. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.5.4.554

17.

Cohen

M. D.

Burkhart

Dosi

Egidi

Marengo

Warglien

Winter

(1996). Routines and other recurring action patterns of organizations: Contemporary research issues. Industrial and Corporate Change, 5(3), 653–698. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/5.3.653

18.

Conte

J. M.

Landy

F. J.

Mathieu

J. E.

(1995). Time urgency: Conceptual and construct development. Journal of Applied Psychology, 80(1), 178–185. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.80.1.178

19.

Csaszar

F. A.

(2018). A note on how NK landscapes work. Journal of Organization Design, 7(1), 15. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41469-018-0039-0

20.

Cyert

R. M.

March

J. G.

(1963). A behavioral theory of the firm. Prentice-Hall.

21.

Dess

G. G.

Beard

D. W.

(1984). Dimensions of organizational task environments. Administrative Science Quarterly, 29(1), 52–73. https://doi.org/10.2307/2393080

22.

Dougherty

(1992). Interpretive barriers to successful product innovation in large firms. Organization Science, 3(2), 179–202. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.3.2.179

23.

Duncan

R. B.

(1972). Characteristics of organizational environments and perceived environmental uncertainty. Administrative Science Quarterly, 17(3), 313–327. https://doi.org/10.2307/2392145

24.

Edwards

B. D.

Day

E. A.

Arthur

Bell

S. T.

(2006). Relationships among team ability composition, team mental models, and team performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 91(3), 727–736. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.91.3.727

25.

Eisenhardt

K. M.

Zbaracki

M. J.

(1992). Strategic decision making. Strategic Management Journal, 13(S2), 17–37. https://doi.org/10.1002/smj.4250130904

26.

Feldman

M. S.

(2000). Organizational routines as a source of continuous change. Organization Science, 11(6), 611–629. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.11.6.611.12529

27.

Feldman

M. S.

Pentland

B. T.

(2003). Reconceptualizing organizational routines as a source of flexibility and change. Administrative Science Quarterly, 48(1), 94–118. https://doi.org/10.2307/3556620

28.

Feldman

M. S.

Pentland

B. T.

(2022). Routine dynamics: Toward a critical conversation. Strategic Organization, 20(4), 846–859. https://doi.org/10.1177/14761270221130876

29.

Foss

N. J.

(2020). Behavioral strategy and the COVID-19 disruption. Journal of Management, 46(8), 1322–1329. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206320945015

30.

Galbraith

J. R.

(1974). Organization design: An information processing view. Interfaces, 4(3), 28–36. https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.4.3.28

31.

Garud

Gehman

Kumaraswamy

(2011). Complexity arrangements for sustained innovation: Lessons from 3M corporation. Organization Studies, 32(6), 737–767. https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840611410810

32.

Gavetti

Levinthal

(2000). Looking forward and looking backward: Cognitive and experiential search. Administrative Science Quarterly, 45(1), 113–137. https://doi.org/10.2307/2666981

33.

Guttman

(1954). A new approach to factor analysis: The radex. In Lazarsfeld

P. F.

(Ed.), Mathematical thinking in the social sciences (pp. 258–348). Free Press.

34.

Hällgren

Rouleau

de Rond

(2018). A matter of life or death: How extreme context research matters for management and organization studies. The Academy of Management Annals, 12(1), 111–153. https://doi.org/10.5465/annals.2016.0017

35.

Hannah

S. T.

Uhl-Bien

Avolio

B. J.

Cavarretta

F. L.

(2009). A framework for examining leadership in extreme contexts. The Leadership Quarterly, 20(6), 897–919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.leaqua.2009.09.006

36.

Hannan

M. T.

Freeman

(1989). Organizational ecology. Harvard University Press.

37.

Hickson

D. J.

Hinings

C. R.

Lee

C. A.

Schneck

R. E.

Pennings

J. M.

(1971). A strategic contingencies’ theory of intraorganizational power. Administrative Science Quarterly, 16(2), 216–229. https://doi.org/10.2307/2391831

38.

Hoffman

A. J.

Ocasio

(2001). Not all events are attended equally: Toward a middle-range theory of industry attention to external events. Organization Science, 12(4), 414–434. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.12.4.414.10639

39.

Holbrook

Cohen

W. M.

Hounshell

D. A.

Klepper

(2000). The nature, sources, and consequences of firm differences in the early history of the semiconductor industry. Strategic Management Journal, 21(10–11), 1017–1041.

40.

Houghton

S. M.

Simon

Aquino

Goldberg

C. B.

(2000). No safety in numbers: Persistence of biases and their effects on team risk perception and team decision making. Group and Organization Management, 25(4), 325–353. https://doi.org/10.1177/1059601100254002

41.

Johnson-Laird

P. N.

(1983). Mental models. Harvard University Press.

42.

Kellermanns

F. W.

Floyd

S. W.

Pearson

A. W.

Spencer

(2008). The contingent effect of constructive confrontation on the relationship between shared mental models and decision quality. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 29(1), 119–137. https://doi.org/10.1002/job.497

43.

Klimoski

Mohammed

(1994). Team mental model: Construct or metaphor? Journal of Management, 20(2), 403–437. https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639402000206

44.

Kozlowski

S. W. J.

Klein

K. J.

(2000). A multilevel approach to theory and research in organizations: Contextual, temporal, and emergent processes. In Klein

K. J.

Kozlowski

S. W. J.

(eds), Multilevel theory, research, and methods in organizations: Foundations, extensions, and new directions (pp. 3–90). Jossey-Bass.

45.

Kremser

Schreyögg

(2016). The dynamics of interrelated routines: Introducing the cluster level. Organization Science, 27(3), 698–721. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2015.1042

46.

Kumaraswamy

Garud

Ansari

(2018). Perspectives on disruptive innovations. Journal of Management Studies, 55(7), 1025–1042. https://doi.org/10.1111/joms.12399

47.

Lampel

Shamsie

Shapira

(2009). Experiencing the improbable: Rare events and organizational learning. Organization Science, 20(5), 835–845. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1090.0479

48.

Lant

T. K.

(2002). Organizational cognition and interpretation. In Baum

J. A. C.

(Ed.), The Blackwell companion to organizations (pp. 345–362). Blackwell Publishers Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781405164061.ch15

49.

Levinthal

D. A.

(1997). Adaptation on rugged landscapes. Management Science, 43(7), 934–950. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.43.7.934

50.

March

J. G.

Olsen

J. P.

(1976). Ambiguity and choice in organizations. Universitetsforlaget.

51.

March

J. G.

Shapira

(1992). Variable risk preferences and the focus of attention. Psychological Review, 99(1), 172–183. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.99.1.172

52.

March

J. G.

Simon

H. A.

(1958). Organizations. Wiley.

53.

Mathieu

J. E.

Heffner

T. S.

Goodwin

G. F.

Cannon-Bowers

J. A.

Salas

(2005). Scaling the quality of teammates’ mental models: Equifinality and normative comparisons. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 26(1), 37–56. https://doi.org/10.1002/job.296

54.

Maynard

M. T.

Gilson

L. L.

(2014). The role of shared mental model development in understanding virtual team effectiveness. Group and Organization Management, 39(1), 3–32. https://doi.org/10.1177/1059601113475361

55.

McKean

K. J.

(1994). Using multiple risk factors to assess the behavioral, cognitive, and affective effects of learned helplessness. Journal of Psychology, 128(2), 177–183. https://doi.org/10.1080/00223980.1994.9712721

56.

Meyer

A. D.

(1982). Adapting to environmental jolts. Administrative Science Quarterly, 27(4), 515–537. https://doi.org/10.2307/2392528

57.

Milliken

F. J.

(1987). Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment: State, effect, and response uncertainty. Academy of Management Review, 12(1), 133–143. https://doi.org/10.2307/257999

58.

Mithani

M. A.

(2020). Adaptation in the face of the new normal. Academy of Management Perspectives, 34(4), 508–530. https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.2019.0054

59.

Mohammed

Ferzandi

Hamilton

(2010). Metaphor no more: A 15-year review of the team mental model construct. Journal of Management, 36(4), 876–910. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206309356804

60.

Mohammed

Klimoski

Rentsch

J. R.

(2000). The measurement of team mental models: We have no shared schema. Organizational Research Methods, 3(2), 123–165. https://doi.org/10.1177/109442810032001

61.

Morgeson

F. P.

(2005). The external leadership of self-managing teams: Intervening in the context of novel and disruptive events. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(3), 497–508. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.90.3.497

62.

Morgeson

F. P.

Mitchell

T. R.

Liu

(2015). Event system theory: An event-oriented approach to the organizational sciences. Academy of Management Review, 40(4), 515–537. https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.2012.0099

63.

Nelson

R. R.

Winter

S. G.

(1982). An evolutionary theory of economic change. Harvard University Press.

64.

Nigam

Ocasio

(2010). Event attention, environmental sensemaking, and change in institutional logics: An inductive analysis of the effects of public attention to Clinton’s health care reform initiative. Organization Science, 21(4), 823–841. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1090.0490

65.

Ocasio

(1997). Towards an attention-based view of the firm. Strategic Management Journal, 18(S1), 187–206.

66.

Ocasio

(2011). Attention to attention. Organization Science, 22(5), 1286–1296. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1100.0602

67.

Orton

J. D.

Weick

K. E.

(1990). Loosely coupled systems: A reconceptualization. Academy of Management Review, 15(2), 203–223. https://doi.org/10.2307/258154

68.

Pentland

B. T.

Haerem

Hillison

(2011). The (n)ever changing world: Stability and change in organizational routines. Organization Science, 22(6), 1369–1383. https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1110.0624

69.

Pfeffer

Salancik

(1978). The external control of organizations: A resource dependence perspective. Harper and Row.

70.

Pil

F. K.

Cohen

S. K.

(2006). Modularity: Implications for imitation, innovation, and sustained advantage. Academy of Management Review, 31(4), 995–1011. https://doi.org/10.2307/20159262

71.

Rodner

Roulet

T. J.

Kerrigan

Vom Lehn

(2020). Making space for art: A spatial perspective of disruptive and defensive institutional work in Venezuela’s art world. Academy of Management Journal, 63(4), 1054–1081. https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2016.1030

72.

Romanelli

Tushman

M. L.

(1994). Organizational transformation as punctuated equilibrium: An empirical test. Academy of Management Journal, 37(5), 1141–1166. https://doi.org/10.2307/256669

73.

Roulet

T. J.

Bothello

(2022). An event-system perspective on disruption: Theorizing the pandemic and other discontinuities through historical and fictional accounts of the plague. Academy of Management Review.

74.

Rouse

W. B.

Cannon-Bowers

J. A.

Salas

(1992). The role of mental models in team performance in complex systems. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 22(6), 1296–1308. https://doi.org/10.1109/21.199457

75.

Russell

J. A.

(1980). A circumplex model of affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(6), 1161–1178. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0077714

76.

Saavedra

Earley

P. C.

Van Dyne

(1993). Complex interdependence in task-performing groups. Journal of Applied Psychology, 78(1), 61–72. https://doi.org/10.1037/0021-9010.78.1.61

77.

Sarta

Durand

Vergne

J. P.

(2021). Organizational adaptation. Journal of Management, 47(1), 43–75. https://doi.org/10.1177/0149206320929088

78.

Scott

W. R.

(1981). Organizations: Rational, natural and open systems. Prentice-Hall.

79.

Smith

D. D.

Grandey

A. A.

(2022). The emotional labor of being a leader. Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2022/11/the-emotional-labor-of-being-a-leader.

80.

Staw

B. M.

(1997). The escalation of commitment: An update and appraisal. In Shapira

(Ed.), Organizational decision making (pp. 191–215). Cambridge University Press.

81.

Stewart

J. B.

Eavis

(2014). Revisiting the lehman Brothers bailout that never was. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/business/revisiting-the-lehman-brothers-bailout-that-never-was.html

82.

Suchman

L. A.

(1983). Office procedure as practical action: Models of work and system design. ACM Transactions on Information Systems, 1(4), 320–328. https://doi.org/10.1145/357442.357445

83.

Taleb

N. N.

(2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Random House.

84.

The World Bank (2023). Urban development. Understanding poverty. The World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/urbandevelopment/overview

85.

Tversky

Kahneman

(1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124

86.

US Geological Survey (2023). Earthquake magnitude, energy release, and shaking intensity. Earthquake Hazards Program. US Geological Survey. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/earthquake-magnitude-energy-release-and-shaking-intensity

87.

van Rensburg

J. J.

Santos

C. M.

de Jong

S. B.

Uitdewilligen

(2021). The five-factor perceived shared mental model scale: A consolidation of items across the contemporary literature. Frontiers in Psychology, 12, 784200. https://doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.784200

88.

Waller

M. J.

Gupta

Giambatista

R. C.

(2004). Effects of adaptive behaviors and shared mental models on control crew performance. Management Science, 50(11), 1534–1544. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0210

89.

Walsh

J. P.

Fahey

(1986). The role of negotiated belief structures in strategy making. Journal of Management, 12(3), 325–338. https://doi.org/10.1177/014920638601200302

90.

Weick

K. E.

(1990). The vulnerable system: An analysis of the Tenerife air disaster. Journal of Management, 16(3), 571–593. https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639001600304

91.

Weick

K. E.

(1993). The collapse of sensemaking in organizations: The Mann Gulch disaster. Administrative Science Quarterly, 38(4), 628–652. https://doi.org/10.2307/2393339

92.

Wucker

(2016). The gray rhino: How to recognize and act on the obvious dangers we ignore. St. Martin’s Press.

93.

Zellmer-Bruhn

M. E.

(2003). Interruptive events and team knowledge acquisition. Management Science, 49(4), 514–528. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.49.4.514.14423