Abstract
In this prospective cohort study, we aimed to investigate external validity of the Allouche’s nomogram to predict preterm birth in symptomatic women in Iran. We employed six variables of cervical length, uterine contractions, rupture of membranes, vaginal bleeding, gestational age, and multiple pregnancy to draw the nomograms. These variables were examined in the first day of women’s hospitalization and participants followed up until giving birth. The concordance index of area under the curve (AUC) was used for validation of the nomograms. Of the participants 10% gave birth within 48 hours and 29% before 34 weeks. The nomogram had sufficient accuracy in predicting birth within 48 hours (AUC 0.89 [95% CI 0.82–0.96]) and birth before 34 weeks (AUC 0.89 [95% CI 0.84–0.94]). The optimal risk threshold for nomogram predicting birth within 48 hours was 0.16. Use of these two nomograms, can improve the health of women and their neonates.
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