The burden of low back pain in China and forecasted over the next 20 years: Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract

Background

Low back pain (LBP) is a common condition impacting the lumbar region, leading to significant dysfunction and diminished quality of life. This study focuses on understanding the burden of LBP in China and projects its incidence trends over the next 20 years. Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (GBD 2021) was used to conduct the analysis.

Methods

The study employed multiple statistical approaches, including Joinpoint regression analysis, Age-Period-Cohort Model (APCM), Decomposition Analysis, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, to assess the trends in LBP prevalence, incidence, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in China from 1990 to 2021 and predict future trends through 2041.

Results

In 2021, LBP affected 628838475 individuals globally, with China accounting for 16% of this burden. Between 1990 and 2021, although the absolute number of LBP cases, incidence, and DALYs increased, the rates per 100000 people decreased. Age-specific analysis indicated LBP onset from age 5, peaking in the 55–59 age group. Females showed higher prevalence, incidence, and DALYs compared to males. Projections suggest the incidence rate will rise from 2343.78 per 100000 people in 2022 to 2560.92 per 100000 in 2041.

Conclusions

The findings highlight the increasing burden of LBP in China, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted prevention and treatment strategies. Future interventions should aim at reducing the impact of LBP to improve overall health and quality of life in affected populations.