Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

Synthetic estimation techniques are used to project the number of developmentally disabled persons in Florida in the year 2000. This yields an idea of the future number of these persons if migration continues at its current pace. Next, the population is projected on the assumption that no net migration occurs in the future and the same prevalence rates are applied to that projection. The difference in the number of persons with developmental disabilities yielded by the two sets of synthetic projections illustrates the effects of migration upon demand. Demand for developmental disabilities services is projected to increase by 36% over 1985 levels by the year 2000. Only 11% of the projected increase is due to reproductive change among persons already resident in Florida in 1985. The remainder is due to net migration into Florida. Because the movement of persons who are developmentally disabled seems to be part of a general stream of migration to Florida rather than a separate one, the demands placed upon the state's infrastructure to prevent deterioration of per capita service levels is affected by decisions made elsewhere and the state must largely react to changes in service demand created by population change rather than playing an active role in shaping it.

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Causey, B. (1988). Evaluation of census ratio estimation and synthetic estimation. (Report 5, Statistical Research Division Report Series, U.S. Bureau of the Census). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Gortmaker, S. & Sappenfield, W. (1984). Chronic childhood disorders: prevalence and impact. Pediatric Clinics of North America , 31, 3-19.

Kiernan, W.E. & Bruininks, R.R. (1986). Demographic characteristics . In W. E. Kiernan & J. A. Stark (eds.). Pathways to employment for adults with developmental disabilities (pp. 21-50). Baltimore: Paul H. Brookes.

McLaren, J. & Bryson, S. (1987). Review of recent epidemiological studies of mental retardation: prevalence, associated disorders, and etiology. American Journal of Mental Retardation, 92, 243-254.

National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) ( 1986). Current estimates from the National Health Interview Survey. (DHHS Publication No. PHS 86-1588). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) ( 1987). Detailed diagnoses and procedures for patients discharged from short-stay hospitals. (DHHS Publication No. PHS 87-1751). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Region IV Network for Data Management and Utilization (RNDMU) (1985). The incidence and prevalence of handicapping conditions in children: A compendium of rates and state-specific estimates for DHHS Region IV. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina, School of Public Health, Department of Maternal and Child Health.

Smith, S.K. & Bayya, R. (1989). Population estimates and projections by age, sex and race for Florida and its counties, 1987-2000. Population Studies, Bulletin No. 89-90. Gainesville: University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Steinberg, J. (ed.). (1979). Synthetic estimates for small areas: statistical workshop papers and discussion . Rockville: National Institute on Drug Abuse.

10.

U.S. Bureau of the Census. (1988). State population and household estimates, with age, sex, and components of change: 1981-87. (Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1024). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

11.

U.S. Department of Justice, Immigration and Naturalization Service. (1986). 1985 statistical yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service. Washington, DC : U.S. Government Printing Office.

12.

Valdivieso, R. & Davis, C. (1988). U.S. Hispanics: Challenging issues for the 1990s. (Population Trends and Public Policy series no. 17). Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

13.

Weller, R.H. , Sly, D.F. , Serow, W.J. & Micklin, M.M. (1989). A demographic study of persons with developmental disabilities in Florida. Working Paper WPS 90-60. Tallahassee : The Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population.

Migration and the Demand for Developmental Disabilities Services

Abstract

Get full access to this article

References