Assessing 10-Year Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Malaysians With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: Framingham Cardiovascular Versus United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Equations

Abstract

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the Framingham cardiovascular disease (CVD) and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk equations to predict the 10-year CVD risk among type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients in Malaysia. T2DM patients (n = 660) were randomly selected, and their 10-year CVD risk was calculated using both the Framingham CVD and UKPDS risk equations. The performance of both equations was analyzed using discrimination and calibration analyses. The Framingham CVD, UKPDS coronary heart disease (CHD), UKPDS Fatal CHD, and UKPDS Stroke equations have moderate discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic [aROC] curve = 0.594-0.709). The UKPDS Fatal Stroke demonstrated a good discrimination (aROC curve = 0.841). The Framingham CVD, UKPDS Stroke, and UKPDS Fatal Stroke equations showed good calibration (P = .129 to .710), while the UKPDS CHD and UKPDS Fatal CHD are poorly calibrated (P = .035; P = .036). The UKPDS is a better prediction equation of the 10-year CVD risk among T2DM patients compared with the Framingham CVD equation.