The Evolving Presence of the United Arab Emirates in Ethiopia: Security Implications

Abstract

The evolving engagement of the Gulf States in the Horn of Africa has become an emerging determinant of the region’s current and future security landscape. The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) active presence in the political economy of Ethiopia following the Ethiopia–Eritrea peace deal brings existing and potential security threats to Ethiopia and the wider Horn region. This study mainly tried to glean the political and security threats posed by the UAE’s active presence in Ethiopia since 2018. This study employed a qualitative research approach with an exploratory research design. The primary and secondary data were thoroughly consulted. The study argues that given Ethiopia’s age-old dispute with Egypt and Sudan—strategic, historical and religious alliance with the UAE over Nile River utilisation—the UAE is unlikely to be Ethiopia’s strategic partner. The study also finds that the theocratic and undemocratic state experiences of the UAE, coupled with the de-institutionalised nature of bilateral relations, put the UAE at odds with Ethiopia’s long-range national interests. The rival advent of Gulf States in the region also exposed Ethiopia and the Horn African states to potential proxy wars.