A modelling approach to the investigation of the effects of the Minoan supervolcanic eruption on Aegean sand fly diversity

Abstract

The late Bronze Age eruption of the Thera volcano was among the largest eruptions of the Holocene era. This catastrophic event might perish all organisms from the ancient Santorini and could seriously impact the sand fly fauna of the Aegean islands. To investigate these effects, the survival possibility of the sand fly fauna in the Santorini islands and the biogeographic investigation of the sand fly fauna of eleven Aegean islands were conducted. It was found that only the south and east slopes of the massifs of Thira could provide refuge for sand fly populations. The expression-based heat map of the Jaccard coefficient matrix data showed that the Santorini islands and their neighbouring Anafi, Folegandros had clearly different z-score patterns compared to the other islands. It could be a late sign of the devastating effect of the Minoan eruption and/or the consequence of the distance of these islands from the mainland. Neither the glacial seashore patterns nor the geographic-climatic conditions can explain the present sand fly fauna of the Aegean Archipelago. If the sand fly populations of ancient Santorini survived the Minoan cataclysm, it could indicate that the environmental tolerance and the resilience of the sand fly populations can be high, and local geological and geomorphological conditions can play a greater role in the survival of sand fly species than previously assumed.