Does government partisanship still matter in the era of welfare retrenchment? The comprehensive quantitative research on this question offers contradicting answers. Our meta-analysis demonstrates that the results of published empirical studies depend on a number of the studies’ characteristics. Focusing on studies on retrenchment-prone ‘old social policies’, we show that the single most important factor affecting the results on partisanship is the choice of the dependent variable. In general, studies using entitlements are four times more likely to find partisan effects than studies based on social spending. Furthermore, partisan effects are more pronounced in class-related programmes like unemployment benefits and sick pay than in lifecourse-related welfare programmes such as pensions. Finally, we show a clear decline of partisanship over time. Some recent studies, however, indicate that innovations in terms of operationalisation and measurement of the independent variable may bring new life to the debate on the persistence of partisanship.
AllanJ.P.ScruggsL.A. (2004) ‘Political Partisanship and Welfare State Reform in Advanced Industrial Societies’, American Journal of Political Science48(3): 496–512.
2.
AmableB.GattiD.SchumacherJ. (2006) ‘Welfare-State Retrenchment: The Partisan Effect Revisited’, Oxford Review of Economic Policy22(3): 426–44.
3.
BenoitK.LaverM. (2007) ‘Estimating Party Policy Positions: Comparing Expert Surveys and Hand-Coded Content Analysis’, Electoral Studies26(1): 90–107.
4.
BolukbasiH.T.ÖktemK.G. (2018) ‘Conceptualizing and Operationalizing Social Rights: Towards Higher Convergent Validity in SCIP and CWED’, Journal of European Social Policy28(1): 86–100.
5.
BonoliG.ReberF. (2010) ‘The Political Economy of Childcare in OECD Countries: Explaining Cross-National Variation in Spending and Coverage Rates’, European Journal of Political Research49(1): 97–118.
6.
CarejaR.EmmeneggerP. (2009) ‘The Politics of Public Spending in Post-Communist Countries’, East European Politics and Societies23(2): 165–84.
7.
CastlesF.G. (2001) ‘On the Political Economy of Recent Public Sector Development’, Journal of European Social Policy11(3): 195–211.
8.
ClasenJ.SiegelN.A. (2007) Investigating Welfare State Change: The ‘Dependent Variable Problem’ in Comparative Analysis. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
9.
DacombeR. (2018) ‘Systematic Reviews in Political Science: What Can the Approach Contribute to Political Research?’ Political Studies Review16(2): 148–57.
10.
DanforthB.StephensJ.D. (2013) ‘Measuring Social Citizenship: Achievements and Future Challenges’, Journal of European Public Policy20(9): 1285–98.
11.
DöringH.SchwanderH. (2015) ‘Revisiting the Left Cabinet Share: How to Measure the Partisan Profile of Governments in Welfare State Research’, Journal of European Social Policy25(2): 175–93.
12.
Esping-AndersenG. (1999) Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
13.
FerrariniT.NelsonK.KorpiW.PalmeJ. (2013) ‘Social Citizenship Rights and Social Insurance Replacement Rate Validity: Pitfalls and Possibilities’, Journal of European Public Policy20(9): 1251–66.
14.
FinseraasH.VernbyK. (2011) ‘What Parties Are and What Parties Do: Partisanship and Welfare State Reform in an Era of Austerity’, Socio-Economic Review9(4): 613–38.
15.
Green-PedersenC. (2004) ‘The Dependent Variable Problem within the Study of Welfare State Retrenchment’, Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis6(1): 3–14.
16.
HaE. (2015) ‘The Impact of Democracy, Government Ideology, and Globalization on Social Spending in Less Developed Countries’, International Journal of Comparative Sociology56(5): 338–65.
17.
HansenH.IngebrigtsenT. (2008) ‘Social Class and Sickness Absence in Norway’, Acta Sociologica51(4): 309–27.
18.
HäusermannS. (2012) ‘The Politics of Old and New Social Policies’, in BonoliG.NataliD. (eds) The Politics of the New Welfare State, pp. 111–32. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
19.
HemerijckA. (2013) Changing Welfare States. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
20.
HicksA.M.FreemanK. (2009) ‘Pension Income Replacement: Permanent and Transitory Determinants’, Journal of European Public Policy16(1): 127–43.
21.
HicksA.M.SwankD.H. (1992) ‘Politics, Institutions, and Welfare Spending in Industrialized Democracies, 1960–82’, American Political Science Review86(3): 658–74.
22.
HiedaT. (2013) ‘Politics of Childcare Policy Beyond the Left–Right Scale: Post-Industrialisation, Transformation of Party Systems and Welfare State Restructuring’, European Journal of Political Research52(4): 483–511.
23.
HornA. (2017) Government Ideology, Economic Pressure and Risk Privatization: How Economic Worldviews Shape Social Policy Choices in Hard Times. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press.
24.
HuberE.StephensJ.D. (2001) Development and Crisis of the Welfare State, Parties and Policies in Global Markets. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
25.
HuberE.StephensJ.D. (2014) ‘Partisan Impacts of Social Policy and the Distributive Outcomes in the Eras of Welfare State Expansion and Retrenchment’, Paper Prepared for Delivery at the Meetings of the APSA, Washington, DC, 28–31August.
26.
HuberE.MustilloT.StephensJ.D. (2008) ‘Politics and Social Spending in Latin America’, The Journal of Politics70(2): 420–36.
27.
HuberE.RaginC.StephensJ.D. (1993) ‘Social Democracy, Christian Democracy, Constitutional Structure, and the Welfare State’, American Journal of Sociology99(3): 711–49.
28.
ImbeauL.M.PétryF.LamariM. (2001) ‘Left–Right Party Ideology and Government Policies: A Meta-Analysis’, European Journal of Political Research40(1): 1–29.
29.
ImmergutE.M.Abou-ChadiT. (2014) ‘How Electoral Vulnerability Affects Pension Politics: Introducing a Concept, Measure and Empirical Application’, European Journal of Political Research53(2): 269–87.
30.
IversenT.WrenA. (1998) ‘Equality, Employment, and Budgetary Constraint: The Trilemma of the Service Economy’, World Politics50(4): 507–46.
31.
JensenC. (2011a) ‘Marketization Via Compensation: Health Care and the Politics of the Right in Advanced Industrialized Nations’, British Journal of Political Science41(4): 907–26.
32.
JensenC. (2011b) ‘Negotiated Expansion: Left-Wing Governments, Corporatism and Social Expenditure in Mature Welfare States’, Comparative European Politics9(2): 168–90.
33.
JensenC. (2012) ‘Labour Market- Versus Life Course-Related Social Policies: Understanding Cross-Programme Differences’, Journal of European Social Policy19(2): 275–91.
34.
KangasO.PalmeJ. (2007) ‘Social Rights, Structural Needs and Social Expenditure: A Comparative Study of 18 OECD Countries 1960–2000’, in ClasenJ.Siegel (eds) Investigating Welfare State Change: The ‘Dependent Variable Problem’ in Comparative Analysis, pp. 106–29. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
35.
KorpiW.PalmeJ. (2003) ‘New Politics and Class Politics in the Context of Austerity and Globalization: Welfare State Regress in 18 Countries, 1975–95’, American Political Science Review97(3): 425–46.
36.
KwonH.Y.PontussonJ. (2010) ‘Globalization, Labour Power and Partisan Politics Revisited’, Socio-Economic Review8(2): 251–81.
37.
LaverM. (2014) ‘Measuring Policy Positions in Political Space’, Annual Review of Political Science17: 207–23.
38.
LipsmeyerC.S. (2002) ‘Parties and Policy: Evaluating Economic and Partisan Influences on Welfare Policy Spending during the European Post-Communist Transition’, British Journal of Political Science32(4): 641–61.
39.
LittellJ.H.CorcoranJ.PillaiV.K. (2008) Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
40.
NelsonM. (2013) ‘Making Markets with Active Labour Market Policies: The Influence of Political Parties, Welfare State Regimes, and Economic Change on Spending on Different Types of Policies’, European Political Science Review5(2): 255–77.
41.
NoyS. (2011) ‘New Contexts, Different Patterns? A Comparative Analysis of Social Spending and Government Health Expenditure in Latin America and the OECD’, International Journal of Comparative Sociology52(3): 215–44.
42.
OeschD.RennwaldL. (2018) ‘Electoral Competition in Europe’s New Tripolar Political Space: Class Voting for the Left, Centre-Right and Radical Right’, European Journal of Political Research57(4): 783–807.
43.
PiersonP. (1996) ‘The New Politics of the Welfare State’, World Politics48(2): 143–79.
44.
PiersonP. (1998) ‘Irresistible Forces, Immovable Objects: Post-Industrial Welfare States Confront Permanent Austerity’, Journal of European Public Policy5(4): 539–60.
45.
PihaK.LaaksonenM.MartikainenP.RahkonenO.LahelmaE. (2009) ‘Interrelationships between Education, Occupational Class, Income and Sickness Absence’, European Journal of Public Health20(3): 276–80.
46.
PotrafkeN. (2009) ‘Did Globalization Restrict Partisan Politics? An Empirical Evaluation of Social Expenditures in a Panel of OECD Countries’, Public Choice140(1–2): 105–24.
47.
PotrafkeN. (2017) ‘Partisan Politics: The Empirical Evidence from OECD Panel Studies’, Journal of Comparative Economics45(4): 712–50.
48.
RossF. (2000) ‘“Beyond Left and Right”: The New Partisan Politics of Welfare’, Governance13(2): 155–83.
49.
RöthL.AfonsoA.SpiesD.C. (2018) ‘The Impact of Populist Radical Right Parties on Socio-Economic Policies’, European Political Science Review10(3): 325–50.
50.
RuedaD. (2006) ‘Social Democracy and Active Labour-Market Policies: Insiders, Outsiders and the Politics of Employment Promotion’, British Journal of Political Science36(3): 385–406.
51.
ScharpfF.W. (2000) ‘The Viability of Advanced Welfare States in the International Economy: Vulnerabilities and Options’, Journal of European Public Policy7(2): 190–228.
52.
SchmidtM.G. (1996) ‘When Parties Matter: A Review of the Possibilities and Limits of Partisan Influence on Public Policy’, European Journal of Political Research30(2): 155–83.
53.
SchmidtM.G. (2012) ‘Political Parties and the Welfare State in Western and Post-Communist Democracies’, in KemanH.Müller-RommelF. (eds) Party Government in the New Europe, pp. 139–62. London: Routledge.
54.
SchmittC. (2016) ‘Panel Data Analysis and Partisan Variables: How Periodization Does Influence Partisan Effects’, Journal of European Public Policy23(10): 1442–59.
55.
ScruggsL.JahnD.KuittoK. (2017) ‘Comparative Welfare Entitlements Dataset 2: Version 2017-09’, University of Connecticut and University of Greifswald, Greifswald, available at: http://cwed2.org/.
56.
SiegelN.A. (2007) ‘When (only) Money Matters: The Pros and Cons of Expenditure Analysis’, in ClasenJ.SiegelN.A. (eds) Investigating Welfare State Change: The ‘Dependent Variable Problem’ in Comparative Analysis, pp. 43–71. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.
57.
SOFI (2019) ‘Social Insurance Entitlements Dataset (SIED)’, Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, available at: www.spin.su.se/datasets/sied.
58.
StephensJ.D. (2015) ‘Revisiting Pierson’s Work on the Politics of Welfare State Reform in the Era of Retrenchment Twenty Years Later’, Political Science & Politics48(2): 274–78.
59.
TromborgM.W. (2014) ‘Bringing the Median Voter Back In: The Relationship between Government Debt, Median Voter Preferences, and Welfare State Spending’, Journal of European Social Policy24(2): 107–21.
60.
VlandasT. (2013) ‘Mixing Apples with Oranges? Partisanship and Active Labour Market Policies in Europe’, Journal of European Social Policy23(1): 3–20.
61.
WenzelburgerG.ZohlnhöferR.WolfF. (2013) ‘Implications of Dataset Choice in Comparative Welfare Research’, Journal of European Public Policy20(9): 1229–50.
62.
WolfF.ZohlnhöferR.WenzelburgerG. (2014) ‘The Politics of Public and Private Pension Generosity in Advanced Democracies’, Social Policy & Administration48(1): 86–106.
63.
ZohlnhöferR.EnglerF.DümigK. (2018) ‘The Retreat of the Interventionist State in Advanced Democracies’, British Journal of Political Science48(2): 535–62.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
