This article assesses whether macroeconomic developments in Europe will assist the reduction of social exclusion under EMU. It concludes that the objectives of the Lisbon Council will be difficult to meet. Enlargement, ageing and the `new economy' may alter projections but more rapid structural change has adverse asymmetric effects on average and regional unemployment. As increased public spending can have disincentive effects, combating exclusion needs to focus on building `capabilities' to participate in society and economic activity. However, constraints from EMU are largely illusory. Although problems might arise if the fiscal policies adopted by different countries pull in different directions, these can be attenuated by sensible coordination mechanisms.
Cet article évalue dans quelle mesure les développements macro-économiques sous condition d'UEM contribueront à réduire l'exclusion sociale. Nous concluons que les objectifs du Conseil européen de Lisbonne seront difficiles à atteindre. L'élargissement, le vieillissement de la population et la “nouvelle” économie peuvent modifier les projections mais des changements structurels plus rapides tout en augmentant les revenus ont des effets asymétriques négatifs sur le taux de chômage moyen et régional. Comme l'augmentation des dépenses publiques peut avoir des effets désincitatifs, la lutte contre l'exclusion sociale doit se centrer sur la construction de “capacités” pour participer à la société et aux activités économiques. Bien qu'il puisse y avoir des problèmes si les politiques budgétaires adoptées par les différents Etats membres vont dans des directions différentes, ceci peut être atténué par des mécanismes appropriés de coordination.
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