“We No Longer Only Carry Flowers”: Radicalization Processes Among the Belarusian Opposition-in-Exile

Abstract

This article explores radicalization processes among the Belarusian opposition-in-exile using resource mobilization theory. Drawing on the case of the post-2020 opposition, exiled in the European Union and recognized by the West as a privileged interlocutor and “legitimate representative of the [Belarusian] people,” it identifies the stages of its radicalization in response to repression in Belarus and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine: first a peaceful approach, then emphasis on self-defense, and finally preparation for violent resistance. It explains each stage by the aggregation and maintenance of a “resource threshold.” It counts domestic/exile networks and Western allies as resources crucial for activism among the exiled opposition. The article also argues that different strategies (peaceful versus violent) have been useful for achieving the resource threshold of the Belarusian opposition-in-exile depending on the domestic, host states’, and sponsor states’ political and geopolitical environments.