Influence of ICU Surge and Capacity on COVID Mortality Across U.S. States and Regions During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Background

To describe the influence of COVID-19 caseload surges and overall capacity in the intensive care unit (ICU) on mortality among US population and census divisions.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of the national COVID ActNow database between January 1, 2021 until March 1, 2022. The main outcome used was COVID-19 weekly mortality rates, which were calculated and incorporated into several generalized estimation of effects models with predictor variables that included ICU bed capacity, as well as ICU capacity used by COVID cases while adjusting for ratios of vaccinations in populations, case density, and percentage of the population over the age of 65.

Results

Each 1% increase in general ICU capacity is correlated with approximately 5 more weekly deaths from COVID-19 per 100,000 population and each percentage increase in the number of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU resulted in approximately 10 more COVID-19 deaths per week per 100,000 population. Significant differences in ability to handle caseload surges were observed across US census divisions.

Conclusions

A strong association was observed between COVID-19 ICU surges, overall ICU surge, and increased mortality. Further research is needed to reveal best practices and public health measures to prevent ICU overcrowding amidst future pandemics and disaster responses.