When is international trade a security threat?

Abstract

Discussion of trade is increasingly dominated by security-oriented terms and concepts. We examine the tendency of individuals to perceive trade not merely as an economic issue but as a threat to national security, which we term “trade–security equivalence.” While many scholars have studied individual-level support for trade, we show that trade–security equivalence is distinct from trade preferences. We use a survey experiment of US respondents to isolate conditions that lead individuals to perceive trade as a security threat. Treatments vary aspects of hypothetical US trade relationships: military and economic gaps, partner alignment with US foreign policy, and potential macro- and micro-level economic impacts. Our analysis reveals multiple paths to trade–security equivalence, involving both economic and security influences, with the strongest effect from macro-level economic influences. When subjects are told that trade negatively affects the overall US economy, they are especially likely to view trade as a national security threat.