Migration potential from Iran: A cluster analysis of the main departure drivers

Abstract

French

Exploring the reasons behind people’s migration decisions has always been a core topic of migration studies. However, there is little scientific information on Iranian citizens’ migration plans; therefore, this study aims to fill this research gap. Our goal is to explore the main factors that push people to leave Iran, their reasons for seeking a new life abroad, their anticipations about their journey from Iran to the destination countries, and expectation of life outside Iran. We focused our attention on potential migrants relying on a convenience sample of Iranian citizens (n = 1006) who filled the online survey that was spread on Telegram channels and X application in Iran. We found that the main push factors are economic issues, lack of social freedom, and lack of job security. When it comes to choosing the destination country, good living conditions, availability of job opportunities, and economic security were identified as the main factors. Financial issues, emotional problems, and language barriers were the most often chosen challenges concerning the journey from Iran to the destination countries. As far as their main anticipations are concerned, providing a better life for their families and children, having freedom, and finding a better job chosen by participants.

Keywords

destination countries freedom Iranian job security migration

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Aksoy

Poutvaara

(2019) Refugees’ and irregular migrants’ self-selection into Europe: Who migrates where? CESifo working paper no. 7781, August. Available at: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7781.pdf (accessed 23 December 2021).

Aryan

Halderman

(2013) Internet censorship in Iran: A first look. In: Proceedings of the 3rd USENIX workshop on free and open communications on the internet. Available at: https://jhalderm.com/pub/papers/iran-foci13.pdf (accessed 3 February 2021).

Asch

(1994) Emigration and its effects on the sending countries. The RAND Corporation Monograph Report Series. Available at: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/2006/MR244.pdf (accessed 22 September 2021).

Asylum Information Database (2019) Country report: United Kingdom. Available at: https://www.asylumineurope.org/reports/country/united-kingdom

Azadi

Mirramezani

Mesgaran

(2020) Migration and brain drain from Iran. Stanford Iran 2040 project. Working paper no. 9. Available at: https://stanford.app.box.com/s/zv18ed560o38q0sefkxx4leikz5q2cpw (accessed 23 December 2021).

BalkanInsight (2018) Serbia Blames System’s ‘Abuse’ for Restoring Visas for Iranians. Available at: https://balkaninsight.com/2018/10/11/serbia-reinstates-visas-for-iranians-10-11-2018/

BAMF (2019) Aktuelle Zahlen. Available in German. Available at: https://www.bamf.de/SharedDocs/Anlagen/DE/Statistik/AsylinZahlen/aktuelle-zahlen-dezember-2019.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=5

Bani Kamal

Ishtiaq

(2016) The Iranian diaspora in Malaysia: A socio-economic and political analysis. Diaspora Studies 10(1):1–14.

Bauer

Zimmermann

(1998) Causes of international migration: A survey. In: Gorter

Nijkamp

Poot

(eds) Crossing Borders: Regional and Urban Perspectives on International Migration. Farnham: Ashgate Publishing, pp.95–127.

10.

Belhadj

Picarra

Borges

, et al (2010) Policies on Irregular Migrants. Volume III: France, Portugal and Poland. Illustrated ed. London: Council of Europe.

11.

Burkova

(2017) It’s a men’s club’. discrimination against women in Iran’s job market. Available at: https://www.hrw.org/report/2017/05/26/its-mens-club/discrimination-against-women-irans-job-market

12.

Cohen

(Ed) (1995) The Cambridge Survey of World Migration. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

13.

Countrymeters (2022) Iran population. Available at: https://countrymeters.info/en/Iran (accessed February 15, 2022).

14.

Crawley

(2010) Chance or Choice? Understanding Why Asylum Seekers Come to the UK. Swansea: Swansea University. Available at: https://www.refugeecouncil.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/Chance-or-choice-2010.pdf (accessed 27 December 2021).

15.

Dabiri

(2023) ‘Woman, life, freedom’: A movement in progress in Iran. Dignity 8(1): 5.

16.

de Haas

(2021) A theory of migration: The aspirations-capabilities framework. Comparative Migration Studies 9(1): 8.

17.

Dekker

Engbersen

Klaver

, et al (2018) Smart refugees: How Syrian asylum migrants use social media information in migration decision-making. Social Media + Society 4(1): 1–11.

18.

Epstein

Gang

(2006) The influence of others on migration plans. Review of Development Economics 10(4): 652–665.

19.

Eurosat (2019) Five main citizenships of first-time asylum applicants (non-EU-27 citizens), 2019 (number, rounded figures). Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Special:WhatLinksHere/File:Five_main_citizenships_of_first-time_asylum_applicants_(non-EU-27_citizens),_2019_(number,_rounded_figures).png&hidelinks=1 (accessed 27 December 2021).

20.

Fesharaki

Majbouri

(2016) Iran’s multi-ethnic mosaic: A 23-year perspective. Wider working paper 2016/117. Available at: https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2016-117.pdf (accessed 30 September 2021).

21.

Fozi

(2018) Why the lack of research on Iranian emigrants, asylum seekers, and refugees? Available at: http://www.ror-n.org/-blog/why-the-lack-of-research-on-iranian-emigrants-asylum-seekers-and-refugees

22.

Freedom House (2023a) Freedom in the world 2023. Iran. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-world/2023#CL

23.

Freedom House (2023b) Iran. Available at: https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran/freedom-net/2023

24.

Garvik

Valenta

(2021) Seeking asylum in Scandinavia: A comparative analysis of recent restrictive policy responses towards unaccompanied Afghan minors in Denmark, Sweden and Norway. Comparative Migration Studies 9(1): 15.

25.

Gheasi

Nijkamp

(2017) A brief overview of international migration motives and impacts, with specific reference to FDI. Economies 5(3): 1–11.

26.

Gholampour

Simonovits

(2023) Exploring the migration process of Iranian asylum seekers in Europe: A case of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Journal of Borderlands Studies 38(5): 865–886.

27.

Göransson

Hultin

Mähring

(2020) The phone means everything. Mobile phones, livelihoods and social capital among Syrian refugees in informal tented settlements in Lebanon. Migration and Development 9(3): 331–351.

28.

Gov.UK (2020) National Statistics: How many people do we grant asylum or protection to? Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-year-ending-march-2020/how-many-people-do-we-grant-asylum-or-protection-to (accessed 27 December 2021).

29.

Graham

(2015) How smartphones are helping refugees in Europe. Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/11/how-smartphones-are-helping-refugees-in-europe.html (accessed 10 February 2022).

30.

Guild

(2013) The right to leave a country. Issue paper by the Council of Europe Commissioner for Human Rights. Available at: https://rm.coe.int/the-right-to-leave-a-country-issue-paper-published-by-the-council-of-e/16806da510 (accessed 23 December 2021).

31.

Hakakian

(2022) The bonfire of the headscarves. Available at: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/iran-headscarf-protest-mahsa-amini/671555/ (accessed February 2024).

32.

Hakimzadeh

(2006) Iran: A vast diaspora abroad and millions of refugees at home. Available at: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/iran-vast-diaspora-abroad-and-millions-refugees-home (accessed 23 March 2022).

33.

Hamidi

(2023) Woman, life, freedom, and the question of multiculturalism in Iranian studies. International Journal of Middle East Studies 55(4): 744–748.

34.

Harris

Todaro

(1970) Migration, unemployment and development: A two-sector analysis. The American Economic Review 60: 126–142.

35.

Haug

(2008) Migration networks and migration decision-making. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 34(4): 585–605.

36.

Hicks

(1932) The Theory of Wages. New York: Macmillan Publishers.

37.

Hidayati

(2020) Social media and migration decision-making processes of Indonesian highly skilled migrants in the Middle East countries. Journal of Humanities and Social Studies 4(2): 141–145.

38.

Honari

van Bezouw

Namazie

(2017) The role and identity of Iranian migrants in Western Europe. Vrije Universiteit. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318793039_The_Role_and_Identity_of_Iranian_Migrants_in_Western_Europe

39.

ILO (2017) Islamic Republic of Iran: Employment and environmental sustainability fact sheets 2017. Available at: https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/—asia/—ro-bangkok/documents/publication/wcms_627809.pdf (accessed 28 September 2021).

40.

IMDP (2021) Iran migration outlook. Available at: https://en.imdp.info

41.

IOM (2010) Migration and transnationalism: Opportunities and challenges. Available at: https://www.iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl486/files/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/microsites/IDM/workshops/migration_and_transnationalism_030910/background_paper_en.pdf

42.

IOM (2011) Glossary on migration. ‘International Migration Law’. Available at: https://www.corteidh.or.cr/sitios/observaciones/11/anexo5.pdf (accessed 21 September 2021).

43.

IOM (2019) Glossary on migration. ‘International Migration Law’. Available at: https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/iml_34_glossary.pdf (accessed 10 March 2022).

44.

IOM (2020) Iranian nationals in Europe 2020: A multiple source snapshot. Available at: https://displacement.iom.int/sites/default/files/public/reports/IRN_EU_2020.pdf (accessed 16 February 2022).

45.

Iran Data Portal (2016) Population. Available at: https://irandataportal.syr.edu/population

46.

Iranian Green Movement (n.d.) Wikipedia. Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Green_Movement

47.

IRB (2020) Refugee protection claims (new system) by country of alleged persecution, 2020. Available at: https://irb.gc.ca/en/statistics/protection/Pages/RPDStat2020.aspx (accessed 1 March 2022).

48.

Jafari

(2017) Iranians find shortcut to EU visas. Available at: https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2017/08/iran-european-embassies-tehran-visa-mafia-travel-agency.html (accessed 10 February 2022).

49.

Justice.gov (2020) Country policy and information note Iran: Military Service. Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/63875670e90e07656c9c8497/IRN_CPIN_military_service.pdf (accessed 3 January 2022).

50.

Kaushal

(2015) Recent immigration to Canada and the United States: A mixed tale of relative selection. The International Migration Review 49(2): 479–522.

51.

Kazemi

Baghbanian

Maymand

, et al (2018) Contributing factors to migration growth among Iranian students: Drivers of migration to Malaysia. Journal of International Migration and Integration 19(3): 757–770.

52.

Kemp

(2023) Digital 2023. Available at: https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2023-iran

53.

Koser

(2016) International Migration: A Very Short Introduction. 2nd ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

54.

Kuhn

(2015) Internal migration: Developing countries. In: Smelser

Baltes

(eds) International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Science. Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp.433–442.

55.

Kurekova

(2009) Theories of Migration: Critical Review in the Context of the EU East–West Flows. Fiesole: European University Institute.

56.

Kyaing

(2012) Pull and push factors of migration: A case study in the urban area of Monywa Township. Myanmar. Available at: https://www.academia.edu/27784961/Pull_and_Push_Factors_of_Migration_A_Case_Study_in_the_Urban_Area_of_Monywa_Township_Myanmar

57.

Lai

Batalova

(2021) Immigrants from Iran in the United States. The Online Journal of the Migration Policy Institute. Available at: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/iranian-immigrants-united-states-2021 (accessed 16 February 2022).

58.

Lee

(1966) A theory of migration. Demography 3(1): 47–57.

59.

Lewis

(1954) Economic development with unlimited supplies of labor. The Manchester School 22(2): 139–191.

60.

Light

Bhachu

Karageorgis

(1989) Migration Networks and Immigrant Entrepreneurship. Westwood Village, CA: Institute for Social Science Research, UCLA. Available at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/50g990sk (accessed 22 September 2021).

61.

Lindstrom

Lauster

(2001) Local economic opportunity and the competing risks of internal and U.S. migration in Zacatecas, Mexico. International Migration Review 35(4): 1232–1256.

62.

Litchfield

Mahmood

Siddiqui

, et al (2015) Migration and social networks: Evidence from Bangladesh. Migrating out of poverty RPC working paper, no. 31. Migrating out of Poverty Consortium, University of Sussex. Available at: http://www.migratingoutofpoverty.org/files/file.php?name=wp31-litchfield-et-al-2015-migration-and-social-networks-evidence-from-bangladesh.pdf&site=354 (accessed 22 September 2021).

63.

McAuliffe

(2013) Seeking the views of irregular migrants: Decision making, drivers and migration journeys. Irregular migration research program occasional paper series. Available at: https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/views-irregular-migrant-decision-drivers-journey.pdf (accessed 23 December 2021).

64.

Macdonald

(1964) Chain migration, ethnic neighborhood formation, and social networks. The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 42: 82–97.

65.

MacLellan

(2018) What you need to know about internet censorship in Iran. Available at: https://www.cigionline.org/articles/what-you-need-know-about-internet-censorship-iran/ (accessed 3 February 2022).

66.

Mahmoudi

(2021) Iran loses highly educated and skilled citizens during long-running ‘brain drain’. Available at: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/iran-brain-drain-emigration (accessed 10 February 2022).

67.

Majbouri

(2017) Sir! I’d rather go to school, Sir! IZA discussion papers. Available at: https://ftp.iza.org/dp10787.pdf (accessed 3 January 2022).

68.

Mansoor

Quilling

(2007) Migration and Remittances: Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/6920

69.

Michaelsen

(2018) Exit and voice in a digital age: Iran’s exiled activists and the authoritarian state. Globalizations 15(2): 248–264.

70.

Migrationsverket (2020) Asylum: Overviews and statistics from previous years. Available at: https://www.migrationsverket.se/English/About-the-Migration-Agency/Statistics/Asylum.html (accessed 1 March 2022).

71.

Mitze

Reinkowski

(2010) Testing the Neoclassical migration model: Overall and age-group specific results for German regions. Ruhr Economic Papers. Available at: http://www.rwi-essen.de/media/content/pages/publikationen/ruhr-economic-papers/REP_10_226.pdf

72.

Moghaddari

(2020) Internal Diversity: Iranian Germans between Local Boundaries and Transnational Capital. Berlin: Springer. Available at: https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/id/7a5fd5b5-f64b-4532-b690-a26689fb5fd0/1007200.pdf

73.

Mossaad

(2019) Annual Flow Report, Refugees and Asylees, 2017. Washington, DC: DHS Office of Immigration Statistics. Available at: https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/Refugees_Asylees_2017.pdf (accessed 28 February 2022).

74.

NAE (2018) Refugee resettlement in U.S. cities. Available at: https://data.newamericaneconomy.org/en/refugee-resettlement-us/#exploratory_tool (accessed 28 February 2022).

75.

NCERT (2021) Migration: Types, causes and consequences. Available at: https://ncert.nic.in/textbook/pdf/legy202.pdf (accessed 22 September 2021).

76.

Nikou

(2021) Timeline of Iran’s foreign relations. Available at: https://iranprimer.usip.org/resource/timeline-irans-foreign-relations (accessed 10 February 2022).

77.

Oppenheim

(1995) Social freedom and its parameters. Journal of Theoretical Politics 7(4): 403–420.

78.

OECD (2016) Why is migration increasing in the Americas? Available at: https://www.oecd.org/els/mig/migration-policy-debates-11.pdf (accessed 27 December 2021).

79.

OECD (2017) Making emigration a better asset for origin countries. In: Collectif (ed.) Interrelations between Public Policies, Migration, and Development. Paris: OECD Publishing, pp.209–225.

80.

OECD (2017) Making Emigration a Better Asset for Origin Countries, in Interrelations between Public Policies. Migration and Development, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Publishing. DOI: 10.1787/9789264265615-10-en.

81.

OECD (2020) How attractive is Germany for foreign professionals? Available at: https://www.oecd.org/migration/mig/migration-policy-debates-23.pdf (accessed 1 March 2022).

82.

Pham

Dimov

Nguyen

(2004) Selection of K in K-means clustering. Mechanical Engineering Science 219: 103–119.

83.

Rajaei

Nasrollahi Shahri

Jensen

(2020) The lived experience of recent Iranian graduate student immigrants in the United States. New Diversities 22(2) 1–16.

84.

Rashidvash

(2013) Iranian people: Iranian ethnic groups. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science 3(15): 216–226.

85.

Sadeghi-Boroujerdi

(2023) Iran’s uprisings for ‘women, life, freedom’: Over- determination, crisis, and the lineages of revolt. Politics 43(3): 404–438.

86.

Salavati

(ed.) (2020) Iran Migration Outlook. Tehran, Iran: Sharif University of Technology.

87.

Salehi-Isfahani

(2011) Iranian youth in times of economic crisis. Iranian Studies 44(6): 789–806.

88.

Seefar (2015) Iranian Refugees: An exploration of irregular migration to Australia. Available at: https://seefar.org/wp-content/uploads/Seefar-Exploration-of-Irregular-Iranian-Migration-to-Australia.pdf (accessed 4 May 2022).

89.

Seefar (2016) Who dares wins: Understanding the decision-making of irregular migrants from Iran. Available at: https://seefar.org/wp-content/uploads/Seefar-Who-Dares-Wins-Iranian-Refugees-Irregular-Migration-to-EU.pdf (accessed 23 December 2021).

90.

Shaffer

(2021) Iran is More than Persia: Ethnic Politics in the Islamic Republic. Washington, DC: FDD Press.

91.

Shahabadi

Jameh-Bozorgi

(2014) The effect of economic, political and civil freedom on migration (By emphasizing on brain drain). Quarterly Journal of Majles and Rahbord 21(77): 41–69. (in Persian)

92.

Sinaga

Yang

M-S

(2020) Unsupervised K-means clustering algorithm. IEEE Access 8: 80716–80727.

93.

Soltani

Botticello

Watts

(2021) Exploring the physical activity of Iranian migrant women in the United Kingdom: A qualitative study. International Journal of Qualitative Studies on Health and Well-being 16(1): 1963111.

94.

Sreberny

Gholami

(2019) The politics of diasporic integration. In: Tsagarousianou

Retis

(eds) The Handbook of Diasporas, Media, and Culture. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley-Blackwell, pp.207–224.

95.

Statista (2019) Number of immigrants new arriving in Canada in 2019, by country of origin. Available at: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1171597/new-immigrants-canada-country/ (accessed 24 February 2022).

96.

Tasnim News (2021) President encourages expats to invest in Iran. Tasnim News, 28 November. Available at: https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2021/11/28/2615964/president-encourages-expats-to-invest-in-iran (accessed 10 February 2022).

97.

The World Bank (2021) Unemployment, total (% of the total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate) – Iran, Islamic Rep. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS?locations=IR&most_recent_value_desc=false (accessed 29 September 2021).

98.

The World Bank (2022) Unemployment. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.UEM.TOTL.MA.ZS?locations=IR

99.

Thulin

Vilhelmson

(2014) Virtual practices and migration plans: A qualitative study of urban young adults. Population, Space and Place 20(5): 389–401.

100.

Torbat

(2002) The brain drain from Iran to the United States. The Middle East Journal 56(2): 272–295.

101.

Uehling

(2004) Unwanted Migration: Combating and Unwittingly Creating Irregular Migration in Ukraine, New Issues in Refugee Research (Working paper 109). Geneva: UNHCR.

102.

UIS (The UNESCO Institute for Statistics) (2016) Iran (the Islamic Republic of): Literacy rate. Available at: http://uis.unesco.org/country/IR (accessed 29 September 2021).

103.

United Nations (2020) International migration 2020 highlights. Available at: https://www.un.org/en/desa/international-migration-2020-highlights (accessed 10 March 2022).

104.

UNDP (2019) Despite dangers, majority of irregular migrants from Africa to Europe would still travel [UNDP report]. Available at: https://www.undp.org/press-releases/despite-dangers-majority-irregular-migrants-africa-europe-would-still-travel-undp (accessed 22 December 2021).

105.

UNHCR (2014) The top 20 countries. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/56655f4e0.pdf (accessed 20 October 2021).

106.

UNHCR (2020a) Midyear trends 2020. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/statistics/unhcrstats/5fc504d44/mid-year-trends-2020.html?query=UNHCR%20Global%20Trends%202020 (accessed 20 October 2021).

107.

UNHCR (2020b) Refugee data finder. Available at: https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/

108.

Vahabi

(2016) The origin of the different waves of Iranian migration in France. Cultural and Religious Studies 4(8): 469–487.

109.

Vahdat

(2018) Iran orders internet providers to block Telegram. Available at: https://phys.org/news/2018-04-iran-internet-block-telegram.html (accessed 4 June 2024).

110.

Vollmer

(2011) Irregular Migration in the UK: Definitions, Pathways and Scale. Oxford: The Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.

111.

Wegge

(1998) Chain migration and information networks: Evidence from nineteenth-century Hesse-Cassel. The Journal of Economic History 58(4): 957–986.

112.

Worlddata (2020a) Asylum applications and refugees from Iran. Available at: https://www.worlddata.info/asia/iran/asylum.php (accessed 1 March 2022).

113.

Worlddata (2020b) Asylum applications and refugees in the United Kingdom. Available at: https://www.worlddata.info/europe/united-kingdom/asylum.php (accessed 16 February 2022).

114.

Worldometers (2021) Iran population (live). Available at: https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/iran-population/ (accessed 29 September 2021).

115.

Yeoh

BSA

(2009) Emigration. In: Kitchin

Thrift

(eds) International Encyclopedia of Human Geography. Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp.434–439.

116.

Zijlstra

van Liempt

(2017) Smart(phone) travelling: Understanding the use and impact of mobile technology on irregular migration journeys. International Journal of Migration and Border Studies 3(2–3): 174.