Assessing Sweden’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Road Maintenance using Environmental Product Declarations and Network Life-Cycle Optimization

Abstract

To achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the average temperature rise to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 43% from 2010 levels by 2030. This paper quantifies greenhouse gas emissions from road maintenance in Sweden and evaluates reduction pathways by integrating three elements: (1) lifetime estimates of maintenance operations, (2) corresponding emissions estimated from published Environmental Product Declarations, and (3) simulation of a 10-year maintenance plan that maintains current condition distribution at minimum cost across three regions (Stockholm, Skåne, Norrbotten). We assess three scenarios: a 2010 fossil-fuel baseline; a 2024 practice with predominantly biofuel-fired production and higher reclaimed asphalt utilization; and a 2024 extension that additionally replaces 5% of bitumen with a biogenic binder and employs biofuels for transport and machinery. Relative to 2010, the simulated emissions required to maintain current network condition were 28% to 30% lower under 2024 practices and 60% to 61% lower with added biogenic binder. The largest emission reductions arose from switching production heat from fossil to biofuels and from increased reclaimed asphalt. Total life-cycle impacts remained sensitive to treatment longevity, underscoring the need to integrate performance into procurement and to monitor the durability of emerging low-carbon materials. Although Sweden has reduced emissions substantially, achieving the 43% reduction target by 2030 will require measures beyond current practice.