Modeling the Demand for Demand Responsive Transit Service in Shrinking Rural Areas

Abstract

This article investigates the demand for demand responsive transit (DRT) services in shrinking rural areas, focusing on factors influencing adoption. As rural populations decline and traditional transit options become less viable, DRT offers a flexible and cost-effective alternative. Using an integrated choice and latent variable model, this study analyzes stated preference data from a survey conducted in South Korea’s rural regions experiencing population decline. It examines socio-demographic factors, service attributes, and latent traits such as sociability, tech-savviness, and punctuality. Results show that socio-demographic characteristics, including age, income, and children’s status, significantly affect mode choice, with younger individuals and higher-income households more likely to choose DRT. The study highlights that residents of severely shrinking areas are less likely to adopt DRT, suggesting population decline affects service viability. Additionally, latent variables like sociability, tech-savviness, and punctual mindset positively influence DRT adoption. Key attributes, including in-vehicle travel time, access time, egress time, cost, and detour time, significantly determine mode choice, with longer travel times and higher costs negatively affecting DRT preference. These findings highlight the importance of ensuring service efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and accessibility for the successful implementation of DRT in rural areas. The article offers policy recommendations, including targeted service design, infrastructure improvements, and financial incentives. It also suggests future research exploring induced demand and long-term user adaptation to DRT in rural settings.