Abstract
Bridges are vital connections within transport networks, but scour-induced failures can severely disrupt network connectivity, increase user travel delays, and reduce reliability. The goal of this paper is to prioritize bridge scour management actions to improve transport network performance, defined here by connectivity and delay. This paper introduces a novel risk-informed decision-support framework that aids long-term programming and real-time operational decision processes. This framework couples bridge-level monitoring with network-level prioritization based on predicted transport-user impacts and early-warning triggers. It quantifies expected travel delays and network connectivity under different flood scenarios, guiding maintenance and protection investments toward bridges with the largest performance consequences. The framework is applied to a case study on UK railway bridges where warning times to failure are estimated and proactive bridge closures are simulated to assess operational impacts. The results inform the risk-aware prioritization of bridges for operational measures. This risk-informed approach extends traditional scour management by explicitly tying asset interventions to user-oriented performance outcomes and by supporting long-term programming and real-time operational decisions under uncertainty.
Introduction
Bridges are critical links in transport networks, the connectivity and operational integrity of which are essential for mobility. However, many bridges are vulnerable to scour, which is a leading cause of bridge collapse globally (
Infrastructure authorities have recently committed to developing and publishing climate change adaptation plans for their infrastructure, encouraging asset managers to adopt such practices (
This study proposes a comprehensive risk-informed framework for bridge scour management that explicitly targets transport performance. The framework conceptualizes decision-making at two interconnected levels: network-level planning and bridge-level operations. At the network level (strategic and programming functions), probabilistic scour risk models and network analysis can be employed to compute expected connectivity losses for each bridge under various flood scenarios. These metrics guide the prioritization of monitoring, maintenance, and mitigation projects toward bridges with the greatest impact on network performance. At the bridge level (preparation and operations functions), real-time river flow monitoring from flow gauges can be used to estimate warning times to potential failure, triggering proactive interventions such as controlled closures (
In summary, the main contributions of this paper are: 1) development of a novel risk-informed decision framework for bridge scour management that is explicitly geared toward enhancing transport network performance; 2) integration of real-time hydrological monitoring and early-warning triggers to enable proactive operational responses; 3) explicit incorporation of transport-user impact metrics (travel delays and connectivity loss) to prioritize interventions by their network consequences; and 4) a dual-level decision structure linking network-scale programming with bridge-scale operations, coordinating long-term planning and real-time management. These innovations differentiate our framework from prior risk-based bridge management approaches, which generally lack integrated user-oriented performance metrics, real-time warning systems, and dual-level decision linkage.
Bridge Scour Management
Bridge management in the UK is distributed across several authorities: National Highways (NH) manages motorways and major roads bridges in England, Transport Scotland performs a similar role in Scotland, the Welsh Assembly in Wales, and the Department for Infrastructure in Northern Ireland. Local authorities (LAs) are responsible for county-level road bridges, while Network Rail (NR) oversees railway bridges. Bridge inspections are typically conducted every 2 years (general inspections) and 6 years (detailed inspections). These inspections are guided by the Design Manual for Roads and Bridges (DMRB), which includes scour risk assessment standard BD97/12 (now updated as CS 469) and the design standard CD 356 for bridges over watercourses (
NR follows the EX2502 standard for railway bridges, prioritizing structures based on hydrological and hydraulic assessments (
Interviews with seven UK infrastructure authorities—NR, and six LAs (referred to as LA1–6)—revealed widely varying practices in bridge scour management. Table 1 provides a comparative overview of key scour management practices across these authorities, indicating whether each practice or guideline is fully implemented or only partially/not formally implemented. This comparison highlights that the uptake of recommended scour guidance is inconsistent. For instance, not all LAs carry out the full two-stage BD97/12 risk assessment process for all their bridges, and some rely on informal methods or past incident history instead. Similarly, proactive measures such as strategic planning for scour, dedicated scour monitoring, or climate change adaptation in design and maintenance are often only partially adopted (or not at all) by many authorities. In general, scour management practices in the UK appear fragmented and predominantly reactive, with each agency interpreting and applying guidance to different extents. The following subsections review these practices in more detail and examine relevant academic research on bridge scour management.
Bridge Scour Management Practices in the UK
*Local authorities are referred to as LA1–6 to anonymize their identity.
Scour Risk Identification
The first step in effective scour management is identifying which bridges in the network are susceptible to scour. The standards mentioned above provide guidance for this task (
A range of factors contribute to bridge scour susceptibility, which can be broadly categorized into hydraulic, geotechnical, and structural factors (
Scour Risk Assessment
Once scour-susceptible bridges have been identified, the next step is to assess their level of risk by evaluating both the likelihood of scour occurrence and the potential consequences. Assigning a risk level or ranking to each bridge enables authorities to prioritize interventions (such as detailed inspections, maintenance, or strengthening) for those structures that need it most. In the interviewed sample of LAs, this prioritization is typically informed by general network criticality ratings and customized scoring systems. For instance, LA2 combines multiple criteria—a maintenance needs score (on a scale from 1 to 12), the route type or hierarchy (categorized into four levels), and historical flood alert frequencies—to determine which bridges merit higher priority for scour mitigation. Similarly, LA6 incorporates considerations of resilience into its assessment: it evaluates current deterioration and predicts future degradation rates for each bridge, then gauges how these factors might affect the structure’s robustness, effectively estimating how a scour event could affect the bridge, given its condition.
Unlike other types of infrastructure (such as pavements or rail tracks) where well-established deterioration models inform long-term maintenance planning, the progressive development of scour over time is seldom explicitly included in routine bridge management (
Researchers have also investigated how factors such as long-term climate change and debris accumulation against piers influence scour risk and progression (
Scour-Related Data Employed or Collected by UK Infrastructure Authorities
*Local authorities are referred to as LA1–6 to anonymize their identity.
Despite the increasing risks posed by climate change, most interviewed authorities have not yet formally integrated climate adaptation into their scour management policies (see the last rows of Table 1). This gap is concerning, given the consensus that changing weather patterns—more intense rainfall, higher river flows, and more frequent flooding—are likely to exacerbate scour risk if not planned for. Recognizing this, the latest highway engineering guidance (CD 356) was updated to emphasize climate change considerations in hydraulic design (
There is significant variation in how prepared different bridge authorities are for climate change impacts. For example, one LA in England is considering the use of higher design flood return periods (i.e., assuming more extreme flood events) when evaluating bridge scour susceptibility, to provide an added margin of safety under future conditions. In Scotland, one of the surveyed LAs plans to gather near-real-time data on localized heavy rainfall and prolonged wet weather, which can feed into operational decision-making (e.g., issuing warnings or inspections before a flood peak arrives). Another LA has developed an internal flood risk management plan that not only outlines strategies for dealing with flood emergencies but also mandates post-flood assessment of the entire bridge stock, including targeted scour inspections after major flood events. These examples illustrate a growing awareness of climate-related scour risks, but such practices are not yet standard across all agencies.
Beyond assessing risk, authorities must consider the potential consequences of scour-induced failures or closures on the wider network and public. The disruption caused by a bridge closure can vary greatly depending on the bridge’s importance (route criticality), traffic levels, and the availability of alternative routes. Life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) models provide a way to estimate both direct and indirect costs associated with scour. Recent studies have extended LCCA to capture various impacts: the direct repair or mitigation costs borne by the authority, the economic and time costs experienced by users because of detours and delays, and even environmental costs (e.g., additional vehicle emissions resulting from longer travel routes) (
Scour Risk Mitigation and Monitoring
Common mitigation strategies include the installation of physical scour protections (e.g., rip-rap blankets, gabion, or concrete aprons around piers and abutments) and river training works (e.g., guide banks or spur dikes to alter flow patterns and reduce erosion). In addition, agencies conduct targeted inspections for high-risk bridges—often after major flood events or as part of more frequent inspection cycles. In some cases, detailed underwater inspections or subsurface investigations (e.g., drilling or probing around foundations) are carried out to assess the extent of scour or to verify foundation depths (
Despite a general consensus on the importance of addressing scour risk proactively, the specific operational practices and thresholds vary between authorities (
On the other hand, not all authorities have adopted such proactive monitoring tools. LA2’s protocol during extreme weather is largely limited to visual checks for debris accumulation around bridge piers (since debris dams can exacerbate scour) and ensuring channels are clear, whereas LA3 does not yet utilize any real-time weather or flow data to inform its scour management actions (
For longer-term measures, most authorities implement scour countermeasures at sites known to be high-risk. These include installing revetments, collars, or underpinning foundations, and they often coincide with major maintenance projects or after an incident has occurred. Regular inspection cycles (biennial general inspections and more detailed inspections typically every 6 years, or more frequently for known scour-critical bridges) remain a cornerstone of scour management, as they can detect early signs of scour or changes in river conditions. Various specialized monitoring technologies have been explored in both research and practice to provide early warning of scour. These range from fixed instruments such as magnetic sliding collars and float-out devices that indicate when a certain depth of scour has occurred, to advanced sensor systems such as fiber Bragg gratings and sonar- or radar-based devices that continuously measure water levels and scour depth (
Risk-Informed Bridge Management
Bridge infrastructure owners and managers must address a variety of risks, including floods, structural deterioration, and budget constraints. Effective risk mitigation plans require consideration of both the susceptibility of bridges to defects and the associated impacts. While significant variability exists among different asset owners in their approaches to managing bridge scour, there is a consensus on the appropriateness of risk-based methods. Academic research has developed conceptual frameworks and approaches for risk-based bridge management (
A conceptual bridge management framework is presented in Figure 1. This framework can serve as a basis for developing asset management plans and their implementation, enabling the organization, its technology, and its processes. The framework identifies the relationships between asset management, policy influence, budget, and performance. The asset management planning components and enablers are informed by Taggart et al., while the four management functions and associated activities are defined as per Robinson et al. and Sasidharan et al. (

The proposed approach (see Figure 1) frames the role of bridge management systems (BMS) for risk-based decision-making at the network and bridge levels through four management functions: strategic planning, programming, preparations, and operations management. These functions relate to decisions ranging from individual bridges to the entire network, establishing the asset management framework and service levels required to achieve strategic objectives and performance targets. Risk assessments at the network level identify critical structures for prioritized interventions, which inform budget and risk mitigation plans. At the bridge level, structural integrity inspections guide maintenance and repair requirements, optimized for monitoring and maintenance options. These are prioritized based on budget, scheduling, disruption probability, and broader impacts. Activities within each management function, along with relevant models and approaches from the literature, are briefly outlined below:
The
The
The infrastructure authority defines
Effective asset management relies on
BMS of varying sophistication are employed by infrastructure authorities to maintain desired service levels and bridge network conditions. BMS typically include input modules (e.g., inventory, inspection, prioritization, condition prediction, planning, financing) and output modules (e.g., maintenance, repair works, monitoring). BMS manage the lifecycle of bridges, from design to maintenance. Data mining techniques are proposed to explore deterioration factors of different bridge members (
The infrastructure authority establishes the asset management framework and service levels at the network level to deliver strategic objectives and performance targets. These targets provide a means of measuring how bridge inspection and maintenance activities affect the performance of transport networks (e.g., connectivity, costs, safety, delays). Risk assessment is typically conducted at the network level to identify critical structures requiring prioritized interventions and to assess risks associated with operational activities (
At the bridge level, each structure is inspected to assess its structural integrity and to determine maintenance and repair needs. These bridge-level decisions must be optimized to offer a range of monitoring and maintenance options, which are then prioritized at the network level based on budget constraints, scheduling, the likelihood of disruptions, and their broader impacts. These decisions are implemented across the four management functions: strategic, programming, preparation, and operations.
A brief overview of the activities involved in each function and the relevant models or approaches from the literature that can be applied is provided below.
Case Study
This case study illustrates the applicability of the proposed bridge management framework (see Figure 1) for decision-making at the programming level to manage bridge scour on the Ashford International to Canterbury West railway route in Southeast England. This route, part of the South Eastern Main Line, includes three masonry arch bridges (B1863, B1879, B1890) and one steel arch bridge (B1900), all crossing the River Great Stour (see Figure 2 and Table 3). It plays a vital role in regional and national connectivity, linking the historic city of Canterbury with Ashford, a major transport hub providing international connections via the Eurostar and high-speed rail services to London St Pancras. The route also supports commuter and leisure travel within Kent, connecting towns such as Wye and Chartham, and facilitates economic activity by serving local industries and tourism in this historically significant area.

The map of the railway route used for the case study.
Characteristics of Bridges Used for Scour Risk Modeling
Decision-making at the programming level (shown in Figure 1) involves identifying vulnerable bridges on a route-by-route basis by 1) calculating the warning-time-to-failure for each bridge and 2) estimating the operational impacts of bridge closures. The warning-time-to-failure because of scour during a peak flow event determines the
where
where
where
The warning-time-to-failure results for the investigated bridges on the selected route are adapted from the authors’ previously published work (
The operational impacts of closure to a given bridge (
where
where
The duration of scour-related railway bridge disruptions (both short- and long-term closures) depends on the extent of the damage caused (
1) Short-term bridge closures triggered by intervention thresholds associated with 1-in-100, 1-in-50, and 1-in-20-year flood events
2) Long-term bridge closures necessitated by repair works following structural failures induced by 1-in-100, 1-in-50, and 1-in-20-year flood events
Monte Carlo simulations were performed for 100,000 iterations using @RISK™ to address the uncertainties associated with data on the length of bridge closures, delays because of re-routing, passengers’ travel mode choices, and the value of travel time. In each case, a normal distribution was assumed, following the approach suggested by Elcheikh and Burrow, and Sasidharan et al. for calculating the operational impact of railway disruptions (
Data on passenger usage of the route were provided by NR, while historical data on short- and long-term closures of railway bridges because of scour-related incidents were informed by Lamb et al. (
The estimated operational impacts for the aforementioned scenarios are presented in Figures 3 and 4. It can be observed that the closure of Bridge 1863 will have a greater impact on the route’s operations than other three bridges. The short-term (see Figures 5 and 6) and long-term (see Figures 7 and 8) impacts associated with bus replacements and rail diversions for both routes are also presented. The impact costs of rail diversions are significantly higher than those of bus replacements for both routes across different flood return periods. The high operational impact costs associated with a 1-in-20-year flood, compared with other scenarios, highlight the effects of climate change on railway operations. The 1-in-20-year flood, being more frequent, incurs the highest costs because of cumulative disruptions from service interruptions, re-routing, and reduced passenger confidence. In contrast, the 1-in-50 and 1-in-100-year floods, though rarer, can result in more severe physical damage, requiring costly long-term repairs and extended closures. While the annualized costs of these rarer events are lower because of their infrequency, their impact is amplified by the extensive recovery and rehabilitation needed when they occur. Resilience on railways is not just about saving maintenance and repair bills; it is also about controlling the cascade of operational costs that arise the moment a timetable is disrupted.

Operational impacts on Ashford International to Canterbury West route resulting from bridge closure: (

Operational impacts on Wye to Canterbury West route resulting from bridge closure: (

Short-term operational impacts on Ashford International to Canterbury West route resulting from bridge closure: (

Long-term operational impacts on Ashford International to Canterbury West route resulting from bridge closure: (

Short-term operational impacts on Wye to Canterbury West route resulting from bridge closure: (

Long-term operational impacts on Wye to Canterbury West route resulting from bridge closure: (
The substantial costs across all scenarios highlight vulnerabilities in existing infrastructure and the urgent need for adaptation. Short-term measures, such as early warning systems, are essential to mitigate frequent disruptions, while long-term investments in flood and scour protection measures are necessary to address the risks of rarer but catastrophic events. A risk-based approach is crucial to prioritize resources effectively, balancing immediate needs with long-term resilience. The results of this analysis can also inform other management functions beyond the demonstrated programming level. For example, at the strategic level, the insights gained can be used to forecast long-term budget requirements and develop high-level risk mitigation plans across the entire network. During the preparation stage, the prioritization list of bridges helps in planning and scheduling maintenance activities efficiently, while ensuring minimal disruption to traffic. Additionally, in operational management, real-time monitoring of bridges identified as critical can be enhanced to support timely interventions and ensure resilience against unforeseen events. Overall, integrating the results across various management functions allows for a coordinated approach to maintaining bridge infrastructure and mitigating risks effectively.
Discussion
The proposed framework for bridge scour management offers a pragmatic approach for infrastructure authorities, emphasizing resilience and sustainable asset longevity. This framework integrates a strategic layer that underpins corporate planning with comprehensive condition and climate risk assessments, ensuring that long-term interventions are prioritized through cost-effective life-cycle considerations. For instance, NR could employ this framework to proactively address scour-related vulnerabilities, thereby preempting disruptions and enhancing the reliability of rail services. Concurrently, at the programming and preparation stages, incorporating environmental impact assessments and establishing adaptive maintenance schedules align with business plans, providing a road map for anticipatory and reactive measures against scour. This is particularly pertinent for LAs and NH, where the maintenance of bridge assets is crucial for the uninterrupted flow of road traffic. At the operational level, the framework’s emphasis on inspections and agile decision-making enables real-time management and immediate mitigation strategies during adverse weather conditions.
The resilience cycle is central to the framework, ensuring that network operations are not only designed to withstand disruptions but also to recover functionality quickly and adapt to evolving risks. Preparedness is emphasized through early warning systems and real-time monitoring, enabling timely responses during peak river flow events. Recovery and adaptation are informed by the analysis of disruption impacts, prioritizing interventions such as scour mitigation and flood protection to enhance long-term resilience.
The case study on the railway route in southeast England illustrates how the operational impacts of scour-related bridge closures on network operations can be estimated and employed for prioritizing operation-critical bridges for interventions. For example, while Bridge 1900 is the most vulnerable on the route, the disruption to Bridge 1863 would result in the highest operational impact despite its lower vulnerability. Thus, Bridge 1900 could be prioritized for scour and/or flood protection measures, followed by Bridges 1879 and 1890 to reduce scour vulnerability on the route. Meanwhile, Bridge 1863 can be prioritized for river-level monitoring to better inform closure/reopening decisions. In the absence of direct measurements of scour and its temporal changes, hydrogeological inputs and foundation depth are utilized. From a resilience and planning perspective, the higher costs of the 1-in-20-year flood scenario highlight the immediate vulnerabilities of railway infrastructure to climate change-induced extreme events. The increasing frequency of what were once considered low-probability floods suggests that the 1-in-20-year scenario may soon represent a “new normal,” demanding urgent adaptive measures. Conversely, the 1-in-50 and 1-in-100-year scenarios underscore the need for long-term investments in infrastructure robustness, as the severity of these less frequent events can cause catastrophic impacts if systems are unprepared.
Overall, these findings illustrate the dual challenge of addressing both short-term operational resilience and long-term infrastructure adaptation in the face of climate change. The data suggest that while preparing for rarer, high-severity floods is essential, the immediate focus should also be on mitigating the higher-frequency 1-in-20-year events, as these are likely to exert the greatest economic and societal toll in the near future. The results from the case study and proposed recommendations were presented to NR’s bridge scour management working group, which includes bridge managers from across the country. During these interactions, the expert team highlighted the need to update NR’s scour risk assessment practices by estimating the warning-time-to-failure, as demonstrated in this case study and Sasidharan et al. (
The level of analysis required to estimate the time-to-failure is time-consuming, making it practical for selected bridges but challenging to apply on a larger scale, such as an entire agency inventory. A strategic susceptibility assessment, in which bridges are prioritized for further detailed evaluations based on their susceptibility scores and/or the potential severity of disruptions they may face, informs subsequent detailed inspections and assessments aimed at identifying specific risks and vulnerabilities associated with scour for each prioritized bridge (
Conclusion
This study highlights the critical importance of bridges in maintaining the functionality of transportation networks and emphasizes the need for a standardized approach to managing bridge scour risks across infrastructure authorities in the UK. The proposed bridge management framework, outlined in Figure 1, guides decision-making from strategic, long-term planning at the network level, to operational, daily, or weekly tasks at the individual-bridge level. This framework considers various aspects of bridge management, including condition assessments, environmental impacts, budgeting, prioritization based on cost analysis, and the actual execution and supervision of maintenance and repair work. Designed to be both systematic and dynamic, the framework recommends regular reviews to ensure bridge management is responsive to changing conditions of different defects.
The case study presented in this study demonstrates the application of the proposed framework, showing how operational impacts resulting from bridge closures can inform intervention prioritization. The prioritization strategy considers not only vulnerability but also operational impacts on users, providing a nuanced approach to scour risk management. However, the risk assessment in the case study relies on predictions because of the absence of direct scour measurements, hydrogeological inputs, and foundation depth data.
Engaging with NR’s Bridge Scour Management Working Group, which includes bridge managers from across the organization, provided a valuable forum for presenting the case study findings and yielded critical insights into the framework’s practical implications and effectiveness. NR emphasized the significance of incorporating warning-time-to-failure in decision-making within their scour risk assessment. The current practice, based on structural information and route criticality, lacks a formal estimation of operational impacts and warning-time-to-failure. The study suggests utilizing real-time flow and water level data from a network of monitoring stations, accessible through APIs, to enhance risk assessment models.
The proposed operational impact modeling approach from the case study offers potential extensions to consider impacts on safety, environment, and social consequences. Such a holistic approach becomes crucial in evaluating climate adaptation schemes, especially given predictions of increased flood events in the UK because of climate change (
While this study assumed that re-routed trips would be accommodated within the existing transport schedules, future research should explore the impact of disruptions in greater detail. This includes evaluating the potential need for additional buses on detour routes and examining whether increased train frequencies would be required to accommodate shifting passenger demand. Incorporating these factors into future economic analyses would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the operational and financial implications of transport disruptions. Future research could also focus on a cost-benefit analysis of scour mitigation strategies, incorporating LCC and the effectiveness of scour risk mitigation measures.
Footnotes
Author Contributions
The authors confirm contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design: M. Sasidharan, M. Herrera, A. Parlikad; data collection: M. Sasidharan; analysis and interpretation of results: M. Sasidharan, M. Herrera; draft manuscript preparation: M. Sasidharan, M. Herrera, G. Yilmaz, A. Parlikad, J. Schooling. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.
Declaration of Conflicting Interests
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
Funding
The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This work was supported by the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) (Grant Nos. EP/N021614/1—CSIC Innovation and Knowledge Centre Phase 2; EP/Y024257/1—Research Hub for Decarbonized Adaptable and Resilient Transport Infrastructure; EP/T022566/1—DIGITLab - Next Stage Digital Economy Research Centre; and Innovate UK (Grant No. 920035—Centre for Smart Infrastructure and Construction).
Data Availability
The data used for this paper has been provided by Network Rail.
