Economic Growth,Income Disparity,and Road Fatalities: Analyzing the Elderly-to-Younger-Adult Ratio Through Global Panel Data

Abstract

Prior research has demonstrated a Kuznets-curve relationship between road fatalities and per-person income. This indicates a positive correlation between road fatalities and income at lower levels of per-person income, while at higher levels of per-person income, the correlation is negative. Elder adults have more road crashes caused by cognitive and physical impairments, while younger adults have more accidents caused by inexperience and risk-taking driving. However, there has been no research conducted to investigate the correlation between per-person income and the ratio of road fatalities among elder adults compared with younger adults (ETYF). This study employed fixed effects panel regression techniques using data from 82 nations over 30 years to examine the effect of per-person gross domestic product (GDP) on the ETYF ratio and its underlying variables. The estimated results reveal a U-shaped relationship between the ETYF ratio and per-person GDP. This suggests that younger-adult fatalities are more prevalent in countries with lower levels of per-person GDP, whereas elder-adult fatalities become more prevalent as per-person GDP increases. Moreover, higher income disparity accelerates this transition at lower per-person GDP levels. The relationship between the ratio of motorcycle to passenger-car ownership (MPC) and the ETYF ratio follows a reverse U-shaped pattern. Interestingly, the ETYF ratio peaks at the inflection point where urban population density is higher and road options are fewer. The conclusion explores policy implications and strategies aimed at reducing mortality rates among both elderly and younger adults.