Development of an Online Daily Goods Shopping Demand Model Using Internet-Based Consumption Behavior Survey Data

Abstract

With the rapid growth of the e-commerce market, how to cater to the demand for last-mile deliveries to households is an important challenge for both policymakers and practitioners. Therefore, the incorporation of e-commerce-driven delivery demand into a freight transportation analysis is required. In this research, we conduct an internet-based survey in Japan to collect data on past in-person and online shopping behaviors and develop a household-based e-commerce demand model that simultaneously estimates e-commerce delivery demand in regard to the total value and order size (or order frequency) using a framework proposed by Sakai et al. Using the estimated model parameters, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the model to understand the impact of changes in delivery service on e-commerce delivery demand. Focusing on groceries and household goods, we successfully demonstrate the ability of the model framework and obtain insights into the impact of delivery service characteristics on households’ reliance on e-commerce using the model developed based on real-world data.