Simulating urban heat island effects with climate change on a Manchester house

Abstract

This article presents a methodology for determining the internal temperatures of a post-1919 mid-terrace house for the present-day and a future (2050) climate. The Meteorological Office, Hadley Centre regional climate model has been run with urban parameterisation and an improved land-surface scheme with urban heat island forcing and a weather generator to quantify the effect of the urban heat island. Manchester city dry-bulb air temperatures are shown to be of the order of 4 K higher than those for the present-day under a UKCP09 medium emissions scenario. Extreme summer temperature data (99% percentile) are used to produce a cooling design day for use in a building simulation program.¹ Loft and wall insulation decreases internal air temperatures by up to 17% and low e glazing with louvres by up to 8%. Internal temperatures for a 2050 climate will exceed existing Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers thresholds.

Practical application: Climate change is an important subject for both the building industry and local authorities. Climate change scenarios produced by the Hadley Centre General Circulation Models (GCM) have been downscaled to the local level for use in a building simulation model.¹ This article demonstrates a technique that enables data from a GCM to be used within a building simulation program¹ for an urban environment. It also examines the implications of the combined effect of the urban heat island and climate change on the adaptation options available to designers and planners for existing and future buildings.