One of the most understudied aspects of the spiral of silence theory is the influence on opinion expression of different social structures anchored in geopolitical units, such as cities or states. This study evaluates political opinion expression after an election by relying on national survey data collected in Colombia (Latin America) and using multilevel analytic techniques to assess geopolitical and individual contexts of influence. Results provide evidence that a disagreeable national context—an election outcome contrary to one’s preference—matters in explaining citizens’ political expression. In addition, individual-level variables in the form of self-censorship were studied. Rather than an individual’s level of self-censorship contributing to expression inhibition, it appears that aggregate city levels of self-censorship affect the likelihood of an individual expressing his or her opinion after a presidential election.
AjzenI. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50, 179-211.
2.
BaldassareM.KatzC. (1996). Measures of attitude strength as predictors of willingness to speak to the media. Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, 73, 147-158.
3.
BockR. D. (1989). Multilevel analysis of educational data. New York, NY: Academic Press.
4.
CastreeN. (2004). Differential geographies: Place, indigenous rights and “local” resources. Political Geography, 23, 133-167. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2003.09.010
5.
ChoJ. (2008). Political ads and citizen communication. Communication Research, 35, 423-451.
DarlingtonR. B.SmuldersT. V. (2001). Problems with residual analysis. Animal Behavior, 65, 599-602.
8.
EvelandW. P.HutchensM. J. (2013). The role of conversation in developing accurate political perceptions: A multilevel social network approach. Human Communication Research, 39, 422-444. doi:10.1111/hcre.12011
9.
EvelandW. P. J. (2002). The impact of news and entertainment media on perceptions of social reality. In DillardJ. P.PfauM. (Eds.), The persuasion handbook: Developments in theory and practice (pp. 691-727). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
10.
FieldsJ. M.SchumanH. (1976). Public beliefs about the beliefs of the public. Public Opinion Quarterly, 40, 427-448.
11.
GlynnC. J.HayesA. F.ShanahanJ. (1997). Perceived support for one’s opinions and willingness to speak out: A meta-analysis of survey studies on the “spiral of silence.”Public Opinion Quarterly, 61, 452-463.
12.
GlynnC. J.McLeodJ. M. (1984). Public opinion du jour: An examination of the spiral of silence. Public Opinion Quarterly, 48, 731-740.
13.
GlynnC. J.ParkE. (1997). Reference groups, opinion intensity, and public opinion expression. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 9, 213-232.
14.
GlynnC. J.ShanahanJ.HayesA. F. (2007). The spiral of silence: A meta-analysis and its impact. In PreissR. W. (Ed.), Mass media effects: Advances through meta-analysis (pp. 415-427). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
15.
HayesA. F. (2005). A computational tool for survey shortening applicable to composite attitude, opinion, and personality measurement scales. Paper presented at the meeting of the Midwest Association for Public Opinion Research, Chicago, IL.
16.
HayesA. F. (2007). Exploring the forms of self-censorship: On the spiral of silence and the use of opinion expression avoidance strategies. Journal of Communication, 57, 785-802. doi:10.1111/j.1460-2466.2007.00368.x
HayesA. F.GlynnC. J.ShanahanJ. (2005a). Validating the Willingness to Self-Censor scale: Individual differences in the effect of the climate of opinion on opinion expression. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 17, 443-455.
19.
HayesA. F.GlynnC. J.ShanahanJ. (2005b). Willingness to self-censor: A construct and measurement tool for public opinion research. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 17, 298-323.
20.
HayesA. F.UldallB. R.GlynnC. J. (2010). Validating the Willingness to Self-Censor scale II: Inhibition of opinion expression in a conversational setting. Communication Methods and Measures, 4, 256-272. doi:10.1080/19312458.2010.505503
21.
HoS.McLeodD. M. (2008). Social-psychological influences on opinion expression in face-to-face and computer-mediated communication. Communication Research, 35, 190-207.
22.
HoffmanL. H. (2013). When the world outside gets inside your head: The effects of media context on perceptions of public opinion. Communication Research, 40, 463-485. doi:10.1177/0093650211435938
23.
HoffmanL. H.GlynnC. J. (2008). Media and perceptions of reality. In DonsbachW. (Ed.) The international encyclopedia of communication (Vol. VII, pp. 2945-2959). Malden, MA: Blackwell.
24.
HofmannD. A. (2002). Issues in multilevel research: Theory development, measurement, and analysis. In RogelbergS. G. (Ed.), Handbook of research methods in industrial and organizational psychology (pp. 247-274). John Wiley.
25.
HolmesJ. S.GutiérrezdePiñeresS. A. (2012). Party system decline in Colombia: A subnational examination of presidential and senate elections from 1994 to 2006. Democracy and Security, 8, 175-190. doi:10.1080/17419166.2012.681510
26.
HornseyM. J.MajkutL.TerryD. J.McKimmieB. M. (2003). On being loud and proud: Non-conformity and counter-conformity to group norms. British Journal of Social Psychology, 42, 319-335.
27.
HoxJ. (2002). Multilevel analysis: Techniques and applications. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
28.
HuangH. P. (2005). A cross-cultural test of the spiral of silence. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 17, 324-325.
29.
HuckfeldtR.SpragueJ. (1995). Citizens, politics, and social communication: Information and influence in an election campaign. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
30.
KeithM.PileS. (2004). Place and the politics of identity. New York, NY: Routledge.
31.
KennamerJ. D. (1990). Self-serving biases in perceiving the opinions of others: Implications for the spiral of silence. Communication Research, 17, 393-404.
32.
KimH.-S. (2007). A multilevel study of antecedents and a mediator of employee—Organization relationships. Journal of Public Relations Research, 19, 167-197. doi:10.1080/10627260701290695
33.
KimS. H.HanM.ShanahanJ.BerdayesV. (2004). Talking on ‘Sunshine in North Korea’: A test of the spiral of silence as a theory of powerful mass media. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 16(1), 39-62.
34.
KimY. M.WangM.GotliebM. R.GabayI.EdgerlyS. (2013). Ambivalence reduction and polarization in the campaign information environment: The interaction between individual- and contextual-level influences. Communication Research, 40, 388-416.
35.
KleinK. J.KozlowskiS. W. J. (2000a). From micro to meso: Critical steps in conceptualizing and conducting multilevel research. Organizational Research Methods, 3, 211-236. doi:10.1177/109442810033001
36.
KleinK. J.KozlowskiS. W. J. (2000b). From micro to meso: Critical steps in conceptualizing and conducting multilevel research. Organizational Research Methods, 3, 211-236.
37.
LasorsaD. L. (1991). Political outspokenness: Factors working against the spiral of silence. Journalism Quarterly, 68, 131-140.
38.
LeeW.DetenberB. H.WillnatL.AdayS.GrafJ. (2004). A cross-cultural test of the spiral of silence theory in Singapore and the United States. Asian Journal of Communication, 14, 205-226.
39.
LinC. A.SalwenM. B. (1997). Predicting the spiral of silence on a controversial public issue. Howard Journal of Communications, 8, 129-141.
40.
MarksG.MillerN. (1987). Ten years of research on the false-consensus effect: An empirical and theoretical review. Psychological Bulletin, 102, 72-90. doi:10.1037/0033-2909.102.1.72
41.
MatthesJ.HayesA. F.RojasH.ShenF.MinS.DylkoI. B. (2012). Exemplifying a dispositional approach to cross-cultural spiral of silence research: Fear of social isolation and the inclination to self-censor. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 24, 287-305.
42.
MatthesJ.Rios-MorrisonK.SchemerC. (2010). A spiral of silence for some: Attitude certainty and the expression of political minority opinions. Communication Research, 37, 774-800.
43.
McCroskeyJ. C. (1978). Validity of the PRCA as an index of oral communication apprehension. Communication Monographs, 45, 192-203.
44.
McLeodJ. M.PanZ. (1989). Getting levels across and crossing levels: Comments on Reeves. American Behavioral Scientist, 33, 199-202.
45.
McLeodJ. M.PanZ.RucinskiD. (1995). Levels of analysis in public opinion research. In GlasserT. L.SalmonC. T. (Eds.), Public opinion and the communication of consent (pp. 55-86). New York, NY: Guildford Press.
46.
MillerG. R.BosterF. J.RoloffM. E.SieboldD. R. (1987). MBRS rekindled: Some thoughts on compliance gaining in interpersonal settings. In RoloffM. E.MillerG. R. (Eds.), Interpersonal processes: New directions in communication research (pp. 89-116). Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
47.
MorgesonF. P.HofmannD. A. (1999). The structure and function of collective constructs: Implications for multilevel research and theory development. The Academy of Management Review, 24, 249-265.
48.
MuñozJ.ArturoJ.BrombergP.MoncadaR. (2003). Reflexiones sobre Cultura Ciudadana en Bogotá [Reflections on city culture in Bogotá]. Bogotá, Colombia: Observatorio de Cultura Urbana.
49.
MutzD. C. (1998). Impersonal influence: How perceptions of mass collectives affect political attitudes. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
50.
MutzD. C. (2006). Hearing the other side: Deliberative versus participatory democracy. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
51.
NeuwirthK. (2000). Testing the spiral of silence model: The case of Mexico. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 12, 138-159.
52.
NeuwirthK.FrederickE. (2004). Peer and social influence on opinion expression: Combining the theories of planned behavior and the spiral of silence. Communication Research, 31, 669-703.
53.
NeuwirthK.FrederickE.MayoC. (2007). The spiral of silence and fear of isolation. Journal of Communication, 57, 450-468.
54.
Noelle-NeumannE. (1974). The spiral of silence: A theory of public opinion. Journal of Communication, 24, 43-51.
55.
Noelle-NeumannE. (1993). The spiral of silence: Public opinion—Our social skin (second edition). Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press.
56.
OjedaD. (2013). War and tourism: The banal geographies of security in Colombia’s “Retaking.”Geopolitics, 18, 759-778. doi:10.1080/14650045.2013.780037
57.
PanZ.McLeodJ. M. (1991). Multilevel analysis in mass-communication research. Communication Research, 18, 140-173.
58.
PerryS. D.GonzenbachW. J. (2000). Inhibiting speech through exemplar distribution: Can we predict a spiral of silence?Journal of Broadcasting & Electronic Media, 44, 268-281.
59.
PriceV.AllenS. (1990). Opinion spirals, silent and otherwise: Applying small-group research to public opinion phenomena. Communication Research, 17, 369-392.
60.
Puig-i-AbrilE.RojasH. (2007). Being Early on the Curve: Online Practices and Expressive Political Participation. International Journal of Internet Science, 2(1), 28-44.
61.
RaudenbushS. W.BrykA. S.CongdonR. (2007). HLM: Hierarchical linear and nonlinear modeling (Version 6.04). Lincolnwood, IL: Scientific Software International.
62.
Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil. (2007). Resultados de las elecciones a Presidente en 2006 [2006 Presidential elections results]. Retrieved from http://www.registraduria.gov.co/
63.
Rodríguez RagaJ. C.SeligsonM. A. (2008). Cultura política de la democracia en Colombia: 2007 [The political culture of democracy in Colombia]. Bogotá, Colombia.
64.
RojasH.PérezI. B. (Eds.). (2009). Comunicación y participación política [Communication and political participation]. Bogotá, Colombia: Externado de Colombia University Press.
65.
RojasH.Puig-i-AbrilE. (2009). Mobilizers mobilized: Information, expression, mobilization and participation in the digital age. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication, 14, 902-927.
66.
SalmonC. T.NeuwirthK. (1990). Perceptions of opinion “climates” and willingness to discuss the issue of abortion. Journalism Quarterly, 67, 567-577.
67.
ScheufeleD. A.MoyP. (2000). Twenty-five years of the spiral of silence: A conceptual review and empirical outlook. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 12(1), 3-28.
68.
SeamanM. A.LevinJ. R.SerlinR. C. (1991). New developments in pairwise multiple comparisons: Some powerful and practicable procedures. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 577-586.
69.
ShamirM.ShamirJ. (2008). What were the elections about, and why we should ask about it in election surveys. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 20, 211-223.
TasaK.TaggarS.SeijtsG. H. (2007). The development of collective efficacy in teams: A multilevel and longitudinal perspective. Journal of Applied Psychology, 92(1), 17-27. doi:10.1037/0021-9010.92.1.17
72.
TuathailG. Ó.ToalG. (1996). Critical geopolitics: The politics of writing global space. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
73.
WeinsteinN. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 806-820.
74.
Weitz-ShapiroR.WintersM. S. (2011). The link between voting and life satisfaction in Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society, 53, 101-126. doi:10.1111/j.1548-2456.2011.00135.x
75.
WeymouthS.FeinbergR. (2011). National competitiveness in comparative perspective: Evidence from Latin America. Latin American Politics and Society, 53, 141-159.
76.
WilliamsR. L. (1991). Novels and power in Colombia 1844-1987. Austin: University of Texas Press.
77.
WillnatL. (1996). Mass media and political outspokenness in Hong Kong: Linking the third-person effect and the spiral of silence. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 8, 187-212.
78.
WillnatL.LeeW.DetenberB. H. (2002). Individual-level predictors of public outspokenness: A test of the spiral of silence theory in Singapore. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 14, 391-412.
79.
WojcieszakM.RojasH. (2011). Correlates of Party, Ideology and Issue Based Extremity in an era of Egocentric Publics. The International Journal of Press/Politics, 16, 488-507.
80.
WoltmanH.FeldstainA.MacKayJ. C.RocchiM. (2012). An introduction to hierarchical linear modeling. Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 8(1), 52-69.
81.
YuanY. C.FulkJ.MongeP. R.ContractorN. (2010). Expertise directory development, shared task interdependence, and strength of communication network ties as multilevel predictors of expertise exchange in transactive memory work groups. Communication Research, 37, 20-47. doi:10.1177/009365020351469
