Computers,Expert Systems,and ADRs: Can Causality Assessment Be Automated?

Abstract

It may be possible to automate the type of analysis under discussion, provided a prestructured framework can be established within a restricted class of suspected reactions. Parallels are drawn with computer-aided diagnosis of disease, and the potential use of “causal networks” as a representation of pharmacologic knowledge is pointed out. It is argued that many of the problems raised in the papers have been recognized in other research areas, and appropriate techniques are being evolved; in particular, it may be feasible to begin with a somewhat vague subjective opinion that is then “tuned” automatically in the light of experience. Another important feature of a working system should be the ability to continuously monitor “surprise” at what it is told in order to automatically detect “odd” cases. This only seems feasible within the coherent probabilistic framework described in these papers.