Food security in India is often associated with the sufficiency of fine cereals (paddy and wheat) in the consumer basket, and the concentration of fine cereals in total cereal production and distribution in India makes climate change-related threats more severe. The pattern of changes in the climate variables is ascertained with monthly rainfall and temperature data for day and night. Findings suggest unambiguous increase in day temperature across reference months and regions. The increase in the night temperature is conspicuous in states, south of the Tropic of Cancer. Rainfall pattern indicates a shift in rain across months and reference regions. The susceptibility of fine cereals is studied by separately regressing productivity of paddy and wheat crops on climatic variables and time. The day temperature has an adverse effect on yield of both the crops; effect is significant during flowering and grain filling stage of paddy and wheat respectively. The night temperature is affecting yield of paddy adversely. The relationship between temperature and yield of crops is revealed with the log-linear specifications in the most cases. In Haryana, relationship between the above variables is quadratic. Time, irrespective of climate variables, remains an important explanatory variable for variation in the yield of crops.
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