Abstract
The flow of Peter Kalmus’ book took me by surprise throughout its course, but having finished it (for the first reading, that is, since it is definitely one to be dipped into for further booster shots of inspiration), I am left feeling significantly uplifted, from a topic that is all too easy to be overwhelmed, and imbued with negativity by, namely, climate change. Kalmus was formerly an astrophysicist but is now a climate scientist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory: he is, therefore, well placed to present the broad technical background to the subject of climate change, and the probable consequences to be expected from this phenomenon. While there are many other scientists who are, at least, as amply qualified as Kalmus for this task, what sets him apart is his own response to the available information, which was to undertake a practical and personal journey, during which he and his family managed to cut their carbon emissions to one-tenth that of the average American; hence, the title of the book is an echo of the phrase, “Be the change that you wish to see in the world” (the distillate of a broader and more encompassing quote from Mahatma Gandhi), often taken to mean that the most powerful way toward creating the world you want is by beginning with the self (personal responsibility) and adapting your own thoughts, ideas, and behavior to that end.
Kalmus reflects upon his epiphany moment, which led to a deep and growing sense of spiritual harmony with other living organisms, initially inspired by a large avocado tree at the back of a house that he and his family moved into. Here also was the first patch of land he had ever owned and which provided an opportunity to grow, first, a few tomatoes and finally an entire garden, with raised beds, among many other means to enlarge the available food growing area. The overall transformation of mind, body, and spirit that he describes, during this time, led to a new awareness of the “substance” of the natural world, but the transience of the artificial landscapes, created by human technology, as is expressed in the first of many quotes which punctuate the book, some taken as abstracts from its main text: As I ride my bicycle on the overpass of the freeway, the traffic below looks impermanent. The way our society lives feels ephemeral to me.
The author stresses that the word environment (“as typically used by environmentalists”) implies a disconnection, and a competition between meeting the needs of humans and those of a realm (environment) which is non-human. He argues that he term nature has fallen into a similar dualism and places humans as being separate from the rest of the universe rather than encompassing all things; this leads to the concept that we are somehow “special” among all species, external to nature, and not subject to natural laws. Biosphere and biospherism are suggested as alternative terms, which encompass all things and imply unity: thus, biospherism regards the biosphere (rather than the “environment”) as being “the sum of the impacts of individuals (human and non-human from any of the kingdoms of life) comprising it.” Hence, it seeks to reduce the impacts of humans “to sustainable levels, by changing our priorities.” The arguments which follow are along lines familiar to practitioners of permaculture: that you cannot throw anything away, because there is no away, just somewhere else, since everywhere/everything is interconnected (as we are seeing with the intrusion of microplastics into the soils, the oceans, food, drinking water, and living organisms); low-energy living; and that sustainable is not really good enough, because it simply means keeping something going for a finite time, whereas the true goal must be regenerative (i.e. perpetually self-restoring and evolving; again acknowledged as the ultimate, value-added factor of permaculture designs). Kalmus objects to the term green, on the grounds that it has no fundamental environmental meaning. I agree that this is true, but even worse, it is too often used to create an artificial sense of “saving the planet/world” (an arrogant illusion, born of human egocentrism) and other platitudes of green-wash. He proposes that we say low-energy instead, and indeed, all necessary actions to curb our use of energy (especially from fossil fuels) and to establish systems that are more resource-efficient, and ideally regenerative, sit well and more explicitly under that heading than green. Further topics such as self-reliance, community resilience, and the need to change our mind-set (expectations, values, goals, and priorities) are also embodied in permaculture principles, which also underpin the ideology of the Transition Towns movement.
The nature of our present predicament is succinctly captured in the title of Chapter 5, “Growth Always Ends,” which opens with the famous quote from Albert Bartlett: The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.
The fact that there is a limit to physical growth is an underpinning truth for plants, animals, colonies of bacteria, and indeed entire civilizations. The nature of exponential growth is often deceptive, since an initial, apparently linear, increase suddenly accelerates upward and relentlessly. Kalmus illustrates the dramatic reality of exponential growth with an allegorical story, about how the secret agent, James Bond, has been handcuffed to a seat at the top of the largest multi-purpose sports stadium in the world (the Rungrado May Day Stadium, in Rungra Island, Pyongyang, North Korea), by his arch-enemy, Ernst Stavro Blofeld. The stadium is waterproofed and has a machine placed in the center that delivers one drop of water in the first minute, two in the second, four in the third, and so on, doubling the number of drops every minute. Bond works out that he has 52 min before he can break free of the handcuffs and escape. The stadium is huge, and so even after 25 min, it is just about possible to glimpse a reflection from some water in the middle of the field. He thinks nothing of it and continues with the task in hand, but to his amazement, when he glances up after another 19 min, the water is 14 m deep, and rising rapidly. Finally, Bond only just manages to fill his lungs with enough air to get the handcuffs off, and swim free, because another 2 min later, he is totally submerged.
Although entertaining, the story illustrates the rapid ascent of an exponential process, once it has gathered sufficient momentum, and growth at a continuous rate of X% per year means a doubling every 69/X years. Since both anthropogenic greenhouse emissions and the atmospheric CO2 concentration are increasing at a rate of 2.2% per year, the amount of CO2 accumulated in the atmosphere doubles every 30 years. By 2014, the atmospheric CO2 concentration (sometimes called a “mixing ratio”) had risen to 400 ppm, from 280 ppm in 1781, and if the same rate continues, we can expect a further increase to 520 ppm by 2046, and by 2100, it will be above 1200 ppm. The message is that something has to change and that something is ourselves. If we ignore this call, nature (the Earth systems) will take its own direction, although, as Kalmus acknowledges, it is a mistake to try and scare people from/to particular modes of behavior—the “carrot” is often a more effective driver than the “stick,” which, in our case, is the promise of a more fulfilling human experience, in harmony with all other living things on Earth.
Viewed differently, we may see global warming as fundamentally a failure of the collective imagination of humankind (and our humanity), and accordingly, we are presented with an opportunity rather than a problem: a chance to reconsider where we fit in the great realm of existence and ask the “big questions” that encompass all things, and hence are not well addressed under any one specific subject heading. In his former life, Kalmus found that his heaviest CO2-emitting activity was flying, which he now avoids, and advocates an increased use of video-conferencing, although there is presently a lack of cultural will to embrace this by employers and universities. The book takes the cultural dimension further, in its exposition that it is not necessary to abandon capitalism entirely, and that systemic, collective actions also have their place in the grand scheme, since not everyone will find themselves disposed to make steep and voluntary individual reductions. Therefore, it is proposed that a carbon price be adopted, specifically a fee and a dividend. By adding this gradually—hence avoiding a massive shock to the economy in one go—to the price of a gallon of gasoline or a ton of coal, all provisions within our culture, including food, transport, heating and cooling buildings, would become incentivized toward low-carbon energy and demand reduction strategies. Fossil fuels would therefore become more expensive over time, but corporations could nonetheless plan ahead, because the price signal would be predictable. As Kalmus notes, I don’t think that we can decouple our economy from physical resources well enough to continue indefinite exponential growth.
Therefore, a more sustainable option is a steady-state economy, since even an all-information economy would require energy to run it, creating waste heat, as bits of information are channeled around the globe. As with all forms of exponential growth, eventually the finite resource space of the planet is exceeded by exponentially increasing economic activities—hence a necessity to move away from perpetual economic growth, even if it is still possible to maintain some form of capitalism, although achieving this is highly challenging, to be sure. However, on the basis of his own experience, Kalmus believes it is possible for the United States to halve its electricity consumption, not only by increasing efficiency of use but primarily by “changing policies, norms and behavior,” noting that per capita use of electricity in the United Kingdom is less than half that in the United States. On this basis, he reckons that it would only be necessary to install one-quarter of the carbon-free electricity infrastructure (to generate an annual 735 TWh rather than 2760 TWh), which would allow the United States to generate 100% of its electricity from zero-carbon sources much more quickly than without reducing energy demand. Other proposed societal changes include ending fossil fuel subsidies; fighting in the courts for climate justice; a redistribution of wealth, and a move away from the current “anti-biospheric” goal of the richest people on Earth to accumulate ever more; stabilizing the global human population, although he does not specify at what number; adoption of the “Half-Earth” policy, where half the Earth’s land surface is set aside for non-humans (as he points out, all creatures on Earth are “Earthlings,” not only humans); international cooperation, “to transcend competitive, murderous nationalism”; the power of communities (localism); and finally the transformational power of “Love,” an individual respect and care for all things.
The power of imagination is invoked too, to envisage a world that does not depend on fossil fuels, whereupon our perception of the problem of climate change begins to shrink to tractable proportions. However, the IPCC’s recent SR15 report urges us to take action within just 12 years, if we want to stop the global average temperature from exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and our attention should not be diverted from the reality that addressing climate change is an urgent matter, albeit that more time will be bought, the sooner we begin to make changes, both as individuals and at the societal level.
Kalmus has presented us with a potential roadmap for change, and one that will not necessarily “ruin the economy,” which is the reason most often trumpeted for maintaining business as usual, for example, President Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change, on the grounds that this would disadvantage the US coal industry. However, the example set by the author in this book is to dramatically change our lifestyles, and it is debatable whether this will ever come about through personal choice alone, as an increasingly consumerist society spreads across the globe. Hence, the top-down aspect of carbon taxes, and so on, is necessary, along with the bottom-up approach of localization, community actions, and all features of the necessary transition to effect change, resilience, restoration, and regeneration. In summary, this is a remarkable book, which I recommend thoroughly, for its non-sensational and lucid overview of the underpinning science behind climate change, and that it offers hope and consolation, in an era of distraction and political rhetoric, and stresses that it is we (all of us) who must be the change and will become more fulfilled, empowered, and happier in the process.