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Abstract

In this article, a methodology is presented to apply the laws and policies regulating releases from prison and to project the prison population that results from offenders newly admitted into the prison system. The model is a disaggregated flow simulation model that uses Microsoft Excel but can be set up in any electronic worksheet system. Offenders are grouped into unique categories that share common release laws, based on offense categories and sentence lengths. Survival tables are calculated using recently released offenders from prison to estimate future releases. The resulting projected population is only part of the entire population. To calculate the total projected population, the number of offenders resulting from admissions to prison is added to the population that remains in prison from those who are incarcerated at the time the projection begins.

Keywords

projecting admissions projecting prison populations survival rates flow simulation model

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Projecting Prison Populations Starting With Projected Admissions

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