Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Abstract

Prison populations in this country continue to increase even during a period of decline in the crime rate. There is a need for a model that simulates how offenders are admitted, how they move in and out of the system, and how capable it is of answering “what if ” type of questions. For example, what impact would it have on the prison system population if there was a policy that would result in an increase in the parole revocation rate for administrative violations? This article presents a methodology to forecast correctional admissions. Projected admissions are derived by separately projecting felony probation placements, direct court prison commitments, and felony probation and parole revocation to prison.

Keywords

prison intakes projected admissions projected revocations direct court commitments

Get full access to this article

View all access options for this article.

References

Blumstein, A. ( 1983). Prisons: Population, capacity and alternatives. In J. Q. Wilson (Ed.), Crime and public policy (pp. 229-250). San Francisco: Institute for Contemporary Studies.

Blumstein, A. , Cohen, J. , & Miller, H. ( 1980). Demographically disaggregated projections of prison populations . Journal of Criminal Justice, 8, 1-25.

Blumstein, A. , & Larson, R. ( 1969). Models of a total criminal justice system. Operations Research, 17, 199-232.

Criminal Justice Policy Council. (1996a). Recidivism of offenders in community corrections: The record so far. Austin, TX: Author.

Criminal Justice Policy Council. (1996b). Recidivism as a performance measure: The record so far. Austin, TX: Author.

Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2004). Crime in the United States 2003 (Uniform Crime Reports). Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

Martinez, P. ( 2008). Projecting prison populations starting with projected admissions. The Prison Journal, 88, 493-516.

Pennsylvania Department of Corrections. (2000 ). Annual statistical report. Harrisburg, PA: Author.

Rich, T. , & Barnett, A. ( 1985). Model-based U.S. prison population projections. Public Administration Review, 45, 780-789.

10.

Rutherford, A. ( 1977). Prison population and policy choices. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Law Enforcement administration.

11.

Texas Department of Criminal Justice. (1987 -2002a). End of fiscal year monthly community supervision and corrections report (Criminal Justice Assistance Division). Austin, TX: Author.

12.

Texas Department of Criminal Justice. (1987 -2002b). Fiscal year statistical report. Huntsville, TX: Author.

13.

Texas Department of Public Safety. (1998- 2003). Crime in Texas report. Austin, TX : Author.

14.

U.S. Department of Justice. (1995). Prisoners in 1994 (Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin NCJ-151654). Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

15.

U.S. Department of Justice. (2001). Prisoners in 2000 (Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin NCJ-188207). Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

16.

U.S. Department of Justice. (2007). Prisoners in 2006 (Bureau of Justice Statistics Bulletin NCJ-205335). Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

17.

U.S. General Accounting Office. (1984). Report to the Honorable Arlen Specter U.S. Senate: Federal, District of Columbia, and states future prison and correctional institution populations and capacities (GAO/GGD-84-56). Washington, DC: Author.

18.

Whitmire, J. ( 1993). Senate Bill 1067. 73rd Regular Session of the Texas Legislature.

19.

Whitmire, J. ( 1995). Senate Bill 15. 74th Regular Session of the Texas Legislature.

20.

Whitmire, J. ( 1997). Senate Bill 663. 75th Regular Session of the Texas Legislature.

Projecting Felony Intakes to the Justice System

Abstract

Keywords

Get full access to this article

References