Election-Day Experiences and Evaluations of Electoral Integrity in Unconsolidated Democracies: Evidence from Nigeria

Abstract

Why do voters’ evaluations of elections in unconsolidated democracies appear to be unaffected by election-day events? Among the handful of studies that examine the consequences of election experiences in countries with less experience with multiparty elections, a majority finds that what happens on election day does not matter. I seek to reexamine this puzzle using original post-election survey data on the 2015 Nigerian presidential elections. First, I distinguish between voters’ evaluations of the process (1) at their own polling stations (local) and (2) across the entire country (national). Second, I highlight three types of election-day experiences that are relevant for unconsolidated democracies: experience with manipulation, administrative irregularities, and election observers. Multivariate regression results indicate that all three experiences are associated with local and national perceptions of electoral integrity. However, the salience of some experiences, such as interactions with election observers, depends on whether voters make local or national election integrity evaluations.