Whither China's Strategic Nuclear Posture? an Assessment of Existing Constraints and Prospects

Abstract

China has been modernizing its strategic nuclear force more or less continually over the past two decades, but has not yet moved from a strategic nuclear posture of minimum deterrence to one of limited deterrence. This is due a combination of interrelated political, economic and technical constraints. But China's increased emphasis on nuclear deterrence in the light of the 1999 Kosovo war and US national missile defense plans may overcome these constraints. This could result in an accelerated shift in China's strategic nuclear posture by the end of the decade.