To examine possible effects of housing foreclosure on neighborhood levels of crime and to assess temporal lags in the impact of foreclosure on neighborhood levels of crime.
Methods:
Longitudinal data from Glendale, Arizona, a city at the epicenter of the nation’s foreclosure problem. The authors rely on four data sources: (1) foreclosure data, (2) computer-aided dispatch (CAD)/police records management system (RMS) data, (3) U.S. census and census estimate data, and (4) land use data.
Results:
Foreclosure has a short-term impact, typically no more than 3 months, on total crime, property crime, and violent crime, and no more than 4 months for drug crime.
Conclusions:
Foreclosures do not have a long-term effect on crime in general, and have different, though modest effects on different types of crime. The relationship between foreclosure and crime is not linear in nature but rather is characterized by a temporal, short-term flux in crime.
ArmstrongToddKatzCharles M.. 2010. “Further Evidence on the Discriminant Validity of Perceptual Incivilities Measures.”Justice Quarterly27(2):280–304.
2.
BaumerE.WolffK.ArnioA.. 2010. “The Contemporary Foreclosure Crisis and U.S. Crime Rates.”Florida State University. Unpublished manuscript.
3.
BessM.2008. “Assessing the Impact of Home Foreclosures in Charlotte Neighborhoods.”Geography and Public Safety: A Quarterly Bulletin of Applied Geography for the Study of Crime & Public Safety1(3):2–5.
4.
BrowningC.ByronR.CalderC.KrivoL.KwanM.PetersonR.. 2010. “Commercial Density, Residential Concentration, and Crime: Land Use Patterns and Violence in Neighborhood Context.”Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency47(3):323–57.
5.
CohenL. E.FelsonM.. 1979. “Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach.”American Sociological Review44:588–609.
6.
DaltonE.GradeckR.MercaldoA.. 2008. “Using Maps of Home Foreclosures to Understand National and Local Problems.”Geography and Public Safety: A Quarterly Bulletin of Applied Geography for the Study of Crime & Public Safety1(3):5–10.
GottfredsonM. R.1986. “Substantive Contributions of Victimization Surveys.” Pp. 705–731 in Crime and Justice: An Annual Review of Research. Vol. 7, edited by MorrisM. T. N.. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
9.
HalverstadtL.TrevizoE.. 2009. “Foreclosrues Fuel Home Stripping by Ex-Owners.”The Arizona Republic, June 14, B1.
10.
HarcourtB.1998. “Reflecting on the Subject: A Critique of the Social Influence Conception of Deterrence, the Broken Widows Theory, and Order Mainenancee Policing.”Michigan Law Review97:291–389.
11.
HarcourtB. E.2001. Illusion of Order: The False Promise of Broken Windows Policing. Cambridge, MA, Harvard University Press.
12.
HindelangM. J.GottfredsonM.GarofaloJ.. 1978. Victims of Personal Crime: An Empirical Foundation for a Theory of Personal Victimization. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
ImmergluckD.SmithG.. 2006. “Measuring the Effect of Subprime Lending on Neighborhood Foreclosures.”Urban Affairs Review40:362.
15.
ImmergluckD.SmithG.. 2005. “The Impact of Single Family Mortgage Foreclosures on Neighborhood Crime.”Housing Studies21(6):851–66.
16.
KaplanD. H.SommersG. G.. 2009. “An Analysis of the Relationship Between Housing Foreclosures, Lending Practices and Neighborhood Ecology: Evidence from a Distressed County.”The Professional Geographer61(1):101–20.
17.
KatzCharlesWebbVincentSchaeferDavid. 2001. “An Assessment of the Impact of Quality of Life Policing on Crime and Disorder.”Justice Quarterly18(4):825–76.
18.
KellingG.ColesC.. 1996. Fixing Broken Windows. New York, NY: Free Press.
19.
KingsleyG. R. SmithPriceD.. 2009. The Impact of Foreclosure on Families and Communities. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.
LittleR. J. A. (1988). “Missing-data adjustments in large surveys.”Journal of Business and Economic Statistics6(3):287–96.
22.
LucyW.HerlitzJ.. 2009. “Foreclosures in States and Metropolitan Areas.”University of Virginia. Unpublished manuscript.
23.
KirkDavidHyraDerek. 2011. “Home Foreclosures and Community Crime.”University of Texas. Unpublished manuscript.
24.
MazerolleL.ReadyJ.TerrillW.WaringE.. 2000. “Problem-Oriented Policing in Public Housing: The Jersey City Evaluation.”Justice Quarterly17:129–58.
25.
MeierR. F.MietheT. D.. 1993. Understanding Theories of Criminal Victimization. Pp. 459–99 in Crime and Justice: A Review of Research. Vol. 17, edited by TonryM.. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
26.
MeierR. F.KennedyL.SaccoV.. 2001. The Process and Structure of Crime: Criminal Events and Crime Analysis. Vol. 9. New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction.
SampsonR. J.GrovesW. B.. 1989. “Community Structure and Crime: Testing the Social Disorganization Theory.”American Journal of Sociology94(4):774–802.
29.
SampsonR. J.RaudenbushS. W.. 1999. “Systematic Social Observation of Public Spaces: A New Look at Disorder in Urban Neighborhoods.”American Journal of Sociology105(3):603–51.
30.
ShermanL.GartinP.BuergerM.. 1989. “Hot Spots of Predatory Crime: Routine Activities and the Criminology of Place.”Criminology27:27–55.
31.
ShermanL.WeisburdD.. 1995. “General Deterrent Effects of Police Patrol in Crime Hot Spots: A Randomized, Controlled Trial.”Justice Quarterly12:625–48.
32.
SkoganW.1990. Disorder and Decline. New York, NY: Free Press.
SpelmanW.1993. “Abandoned Buildings: Magnets for crime?”Journal of Criminal Justice21:481–95.
35.
TaylorR.2001. Breaking Away from Broken Windows. Boulder, CO: Waveland.
36.
TaylorR.2009. “Potential Models for Understanding Crime Impacts of High or Increasing Unoccupancy Rates in Unexpected Places, and how to Prevent them.”Presented at the National Institute of Justice meeting on home foreclosures and crime, Washington DC, March 31-April 1, 2009.
37.
United States Conference of US Mayors. 2006. “Combating the Problems of Vacant and Abandoned Buildings: Best Practices in 27 Cities.”Washington, DC: US Conference of Mayors.
38.
WilsonJ.KellingG.. 1982. “Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety.”Atlantic Monthly, March, 29–38.
39.
WilsonR.PaulsenD.. 2008. “Foreclosures and Crime: A Geographical Perspective.”Geography and Public Safety: A Quarterly Bulletin of Applied Geography for the Study of Crime & Public Safety, 1(3):1–2.
