Negotiated civil war terminations differ from their interstate war counterparts in that one side must disarm and cease to exist as a fighting entity. While termination through military victory provides a relatively more enduring peace, many civil wars end with peace agreements signed after negotiations. However, research has shown that the implementation of civil war peace agreements is difficult and prone to collapse. Often these failures are followed by recurrence of the conflict. In some cases, the agreements break down before key provisions are implemented. This article adds to this topic by focusing on the role of state capacity in peace agreement success. We argue that peace agreements and state capacity are necessary but not sufficient conditions for sustainable peace. The article employs a case study approach to explore the importance of state capacity in implementing civil war peace agreements. The role of third-party interventions is also considered. The cases (United Kingdom—Northern Ireland, Indonesia—Aceh, Burundi, Mali, and Somalia) include 14 peace agreements that vary by war type (secessionist or control over government), type of agreement (comprehensive or partial), levels of state capacity (high or low), and peace success (success, partial or failure), and each experienced third-party involvement in the peace process.
Addison, Tony & S Mansoob Murshed ( 2002) Credibility and reputation in peacemaking. Journal of Peace Research39(4): 487-501. Ahtisaari, Martti ( 2007) Lessons of the Aceh peace talks. Asia Europe Journal6(1): 9-14.
2.
Ahuja, Amit & Ashutosh Varshney ( 2005) Antecedent nationhood, subsequent statehood: Explaining the relative success of Indian federalism. In: Philip G Roeder and Donald Rothchild (eds) Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy After Civil Wars. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 241-264.
3.
Arnault, Jean ( 2006) Good agreement? Bad agreement? An implementation perspective . Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public International Affairs (http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:zhMoRo9fPxwJ:www.stanford.edu/class/psych165/Arnault.doc+Arnault+%2B+An+Implementation+Perspective&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=us&client=firefox-a).
4.
Arnold, Walter ( 1989) Bureaucratic politics, state capacity, and Taiwan’s automobile industrial policy. Modern China15(2): 178-214.
5.
Aspinall, Edward ( 2005) The Helsinki Agreement: A more promising basis for peace in Aceh?East West Center, Washington (http://www.eastwestcenter.org/fileadmin/stored/pdfs/PS020.pdf ).
6.
Aspinall, Edward ( 2008) Peace without justice? The Helsinki peace process in Aceh . Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue ( http://www.hdcentre.org/files/Justice%20Aceh%20final.pdf).
7.
Associated Press (2008) Somali pirates release Greek chemical tanker hijacked in September. November: 22 (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,456427,00.html).
8.
Bennett, D Scott & Allan Stam ( 2000) EUGene: A conceptual manual. International Interactions26: 179-204 (http://eugenesoftware.org).
9.
Bentley, Kristina A & Roger Southall (2005) An African Peace Process: Mandela, South Africa, and Burundi. Cape Town: HSRC Press.
10.
Bertelsmann Transformation Index (2003 and 2004) BTI Reports (www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de ).
11.
CIA World Factbook (2008a) Burundi (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/by.html ).
12.
CIA World Factbook (2008b) Indonesia (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/id.html ).
13.
Cutler, David ( 2008) Timeline: Highs and lows of Northern Ireland peace process . Reuters April: 3 (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL0285320920080403).
14.
DeRouen, Karl & Jacob Bercovitch ( 2008) Enduring internal rivalries: A new framework for the study of civil war. Journal of Peace Research45(1): 43-62.
15.
DeRouen, Karl; Jenna Lea & Peter Wallensteen ( 2009) The duration of civil war peace agreements. Conflict Management and Peace Science26(4): 367-387.
16.
Doyle, Michael W & Nicholas Sambanis (2000) International peacebuilding: A theoretical and quantitative analysis. American Political Science Review94(4): 779-801.
17.
Farren, Sean & Robert F Mulvihill ( 2000) Paths to a Settlement in Northern Ireland. New York: Colin Smythe.
18.
Fearon, James ( 2004) Why do some civil wars last so much longer than others ? Journal of Peace Research41(3): 275-301.
19.
Fearon, James D & David D Laitin ( 2003) Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war. American Political Science Review97(1): 75-90.
20.
Fortna, Virginia Page ( 2003) Inside and out: Peacekeeping and the duration of peace after civil and interstate wars. International Studies Review5(4): 97-114.
21.
Fortna, Virginia Page ( 2004) Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
22.
Freedom House (2008) Country Report: Indonesia. (http://www.freedomhouse.org/template.cfm?page=22&year=2008&country=7412).
23.
Gergely, Andras ( 2008) Some N. Irish ex-gunmen offer hope, others fear. Reuters. April: 4 (http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL2544978820080404).
24.
Ghani, Ashraf & Clare Lockhart ( 2008) Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World. New York: Oxford University Press.
25.
Harbom, Lotta; Stina Högbladh & Peter Wallensteen ( 2006) Armed conflict and peace agreement. Journal of Peace Research43(5): 617-631.
26.
Hartzell, Caroline & Matthew Hoddie ( 2003) Institutionalizing peace: Power sharing and post-civil war conflict management. American Journal of Political Science47(2): 318-332.
27.
Hartzell, Caroline A & Matthew Hoddie (2007) Crafting Peace: Power-Sharing Institutions and the Negotiated Settlement of Civil Wars. University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press.
28.
Heston, Alan; Robert Summers & Bettina Aten ( 2006) Penn World Table Version 6.2. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania (http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/papers/PWTPoverty03.PDF ).
29.
Hoddie, Matthew & Caroline Hartzell ( 2003) Civil war settlements and the implementation of military power-sharing arrangements. Journal of Peace Research40: 303-320.
30.
Högbladh, Stina ( 2006) UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset Codebook, version 1.0. Department of Peace and Conflict Research. Uppsala University, Sweden (http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/datasets.htm ).
31.
King, Gary & Langche Zeng ( 2001) Replication data for Improving Forecasts of State Failure (hdl:1902.1/RPQIODIANR UNF:3:CEsbEgPxbxExfYuh2NWwWQ== Murray Research Archive [Distributor]).
32.
Lacey, Marc ( 2002) A nation challenged: Tracking Al Qaeda; Somalia’s multitude of factions hinders antiterror efforts. New York Times January: 6 (http://www.nytimes.com/2002/01/06/world/nation-challenged-tracking-al-qaeda-somalia-s-multitude-factions-hinders.html ).
33.
Lacey, Marc ( 2006) The signs say Somaliland, but the world says Somalia. New York Times June: 5 (http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/05/world/africa/05somaliland.html ).
34.
Licklider, Roy ( 1995) The consequences of negotiated settlements in civil wars, 1945-1993. American Political Science Review89(3): 681-690.
35.
Liesinen, Kalle & Sami Lahdensuo ( 2008) Negotiating decommissioning and reintegration in Aceh, Indonesia. In: Cate Buchanan (ed.) Viewpoints - Negotiating Disarmament, Vol. 1. Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (http://www.hdcentre.org/files/Report%201%20Apr08.pdf ).
Luttwak, Edward ( 1999) Give war a chance. Foreign Affairs78 (October): 36-44.
38.
Marshall, Monty G & Keith Jaggers ( 2007) Polity IV Project (http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/inscr.htm ).
39.
Mugumya, Geofrey ( 2004) Exchanging Weapons for Development in Mali: Weapon Collection Programmes Assessed by Local People. United Nations: Geneva.
40.
Murshed, S Mansoob ( 2002) Conflict, civil war, and underdevelopment: An introduction . Journal of Peace Research39(4): 387-393.
41.
Nilsson, Desirée ( 2008) Partial peace: Rebel groups inside and outside of civil war settlements. Journal of Peace Research45(4): 479-95.
42.
Peksen, Dursun; Zetnep Taydas & A Cooper Drury ( 2007) Tax and spend . . . but don’t fight: State building, public welfare spending, and civil war. Paper presented at the Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, San Francisco, CA, 29 March.
43.
Poulton, Robin-Edward & Ibrahim ag Youssouf ( 1998) A Peace of Timbuktu: Democratic Governance, Development and African Peacemaking. United Nations: Geneva.
44.
Rothchild, Donald ( 2002) Settlement terms and postagreement stability. In: Stephen John Stedman, Donald Rothchild & Elizabeth M Cousens (eds) Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements . Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 117-141.
45.
Rothchild, Donald & Philip G Roeder ( 2005) Power sharing as an impediment to peace and democracy . In: Philip G Roeder and Donald Rothchild (eds) Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy After Civil Wars. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 29-50.
46.
Seawright, Jason & John Gerring ( 2008) Case selection techniques in case study research: A menu of qualitative and quantitative options. Political Research Quarterly61(2): 294-308.
47.
Seely, Jennifer C ( 2001) A political analysis of decentralization: Co-opting the Tuareg threat in Mali. Journal of Modern African Studies39(3): 499-524.
48.
Singer, J David; Stuart Bremer & John Stuckey ( 1972) Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820-1965. In: Bruce Russett (ed.) Peace, War, and Numbers. Beverly Hills: Sage, 19-48.
49.
Stanley, William & David Holiday ( 2002) Broad participation, diffuse responsibility: Peace implementation in Guatemala. In Stephen John Stedman, Donald Rothchild & Elizabeth M Cousens (eds) Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 421-462.
50.
Tannam, Etain ( 2001) Explaining the Good Friday Agreement: A learning process . Government and Opposition36(4): 493-518.
51.
Taydas, Zeynep & Dursun Peksen ( 2007) State capacity, quality of governance and civil war onset . Paper presented at the 48th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Chicago (http://www.allacademic.com/meta/p180729_index.html).
52.
Tilly, Charles ( 2007) Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
53.
Transparency International (2007) Corruption Perceptions Index (http://www.transparency.org/policy_research/surveys_indices/cpi/2007).
54.
UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset V. 1.0 (2009) ( http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/datasets.htm).
55.
United Nations Security Council (2008) Report of the Secretary-General on the situation in Somalia. S/2008/178. March: 14 (http://www.un-somalia.org/docs/SG%20report%2014%20March%202008.pdf).
56.
Walter, Barbara ( 1997) The critical barrier to civil war settlement. International Organization51(3): 335-364.
57.
Walter, Barbara ( 2002) Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
58.
Werner, Suzanne ( 1999) The precarious nature of peace: Resolving the issues, enforcing the settlement, and renegotiating the terms. American Journal of Political Science43(3): 912-934.
59.
Woodwell, Douglas ( 2005) The ‘Troubles’ of Northern Ireland: Civil conflict in an economically well-developed state. In: Paul Collier & Nicholas Sambanis (eds) Understanding Civil War: Evidence & Analysis, Vol. 2 - Europe, Central Asia and Other Regions. Washington, DC: World Bank, 161-189.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
