How Intractable is Security Dilemma Thinking?

Abstract

How intractable is the security dilemma? The extent to which scholars believe the security dilemma’s pernicious effects can be ameliorated marks a key dividing line between theoretical approaches to international relations. However, questions about the intractability of the security dilemma have remained largely theoretical and not directly empirically tested. We take advantage of the fact that the security dilemma relies on individual-level mental processes. We use parallel survey experiments in the United States and China across two waves in early 2020 and mid-2023 to assess the extent to which threat perceptions consistent with security dilemma thinking exist among mass publics, change with political context, and can be ameliorated. Our findings are consistent with interpretations of the security dilemma emphasizing its relative intractability. At least in the U.S.-China context, threat perceptions consistent with security dilemma thinking do not appear easily ameliorated by priming respondents to consider factors believed to ameliorate the security dilemma: offense-defense distinguishability, economic interdependence, nuclear weapons, and the reciprocal nature of the security dilemma.