What are the effects of partisan electoral interventions on the subsequent character of the regime in the targeted country? Partisan electoral interventions have been frequently used by the great powers ever since the rise of meaningful competitive elections around the world. Such interventions have been found to have significant effects on the results of the intervened elections determining in many cases the identity of the winner. Nevertheless, there has been little research on the effects of partisan electoral interventions on the target’s subsequent level of democracy. This study investigates this question, testing three hypotheses derived from relevant political science literatures. I find suggestive evidence that covert electoral interventions have a significant negative effect on the target’s democracy increasing its susceptibility to a democratic breakdown. I also find preliminary evidence that the identity of the intervener has a mediating effect on the negative effects of covert interventions.
AdseraAliciaBoixCarlesPayneMark. 2003. “Are You Being Served? Political Accountability and Quality of Government.” The Journal of Law, Economics and Organization19 (2): 445–90.
2.
AndersonChristopherTverdovaYuliya. 2003. “Corruption, Political Allegiances, and Attitudes toward Government in Contemporary Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science47 (1): 91–109.
3.
AndrewChristopherMitrokhinVasili. 2005. The World Was Going Our Way: The KGB and the Battle for Third World. New York: Basic Books.
4.
BeckThorstenClarkeGeorgeGroffAlbertoKeeferPhilipWalshPatrick. 2001. “New Tools in Comparative Political Economy: The Database of Political Institutions.” World Bank Economic Review15 (1): 165–76.
5.
BergerDanielCorvalanAlejandroEasterlyWilliamSatyanathShanker. 2013. “Do Superpower Interventions Have Short and Long Term Consequences for Democracy?” Journal of Comparative Economics41:22–34.
6.
BereczMichael. 2001. Character in Chief: The Personality and Character of Current and Previous Presidents. Atlanta, GA: Humanics.
7.
BlackwellMatthewIcarusStefanoKingGaryPorroGiuseppe. 2009. “CEM: Coarsened Exact Matching in Stata.” The Stata Journal9 (4): 524–46.
8.
BlumWilliam. 2003. Killing Hope: U.S Military & CIA Interventions since World War II. London, UK: Zed Books.
9.
BosinYury. 2012. “Supporting Democracy in the Former Soviet Union: Why the Impact of US Assistance Has Been Below Expectations.” International Studies Quarterly56:405–12.
10.
BrownleeJason. 2009. “Portents of Pluralism: How Hybrid Regimes Affect Democratic Transitions.” American Journal of Political Science53 (3): 515–32.
11.
Bueno de MesquitaBruceDownsGeorge. 2006. “Intervention and Democracy.” International Organization60:627–49.
12.
Bueno de MesquitaBruceSmithAlastairSiversonRandolph M.MorrowJames D.. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, UK: MIT Press.
13.
BushSarahPratherLauren. 2016. Foreign Economic Partners and Mass Attitudes towards International Economic Engagement. Philadelphia, PA: APSA.
14.
CanacheDamarys. 2002. Venezuela: Public Opinion and Protest in a Fragile Democracy. Miami, FL: North-South Center Press.
15.
CarothersThomas. 2011. “How Not to Promote Democracy in Egypt.” Washington Post, February 24.
16.
CarsonAustin2016. “Facing Off and Saving Face: Covert Intervention and Escalation Management in the Korean War.” International Organization70 (1): 103–31.
17.
CheibubJoséGandhiJenniferVreelandJames. 2010. “Democracy and Dictatorship Revisited.” Public Choice143:67–101.
CornDavid. 1993. “Beltway Bandits.” The Nation, January 4.
20.
CornellAgnes. 2013. Institutional Impediments and Reluctant Actors: The Limited Role of Democracy Aid in Democratic Development. Gothenburg, Sweden: University of Gothenburg.
21.
CorstangeDanielMarinovNikolay. 2012. “Taking sides in Other People’s Elections: The Polarizing Effect of Foreign Intervention.” American Journal of Political Science65 (3): 655–70.
22.
CrystalJill. 1990. Oil and Politics in the Gulf: Rulers and Merchants in Kuwait and Qatar. New York: Cambridge University Press.
23.
PortaDellaMenyYves, eds. 1997. Democracy and Corruption in Europe. London, UK: Pinter.
DjankovSimeonMontalvoJoseReynal-QuerolMarta. 2008. “The Curse of Aid.” Journal of Economic Growth13:169–94.
26.
DownesAlexanderMontenJonathan. 2013. “Forced to Be Free? Why Foreign Imposed Regime Change Rarely Leads to Democratization.” International Security37 (4): 90–131.
27.
DunningThad. 2004. “Conditioning the Effects of Aid: Cold War Politics, Donor Credibility, and Democracy in Africa.” International Organization, 58 (2): 409–23.
28.
EnterlineAndrewGreigMichael. 2008. “Against All Odds? The History of Imposed Democracy and the Future of Iraq and Afghanistan.” Foreign Policy Analysis4:321–47.
29.
FinkelSteven EPérez-LiñánAníbalSeligsonMitchell. 2007. “The Effects of U.S. Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990-2003.” World Politics59 (3): 404–38.
GaubatzKurt Taylor1996. “Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations.” International Organization50 (1): 109–39.
32.
GleditschNilsChristiansenLene SiljeholmHegreHåvard. 2007. “Democratic Jihad? Military Intervention and Democracy.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 4242.
33.
GunitskySeva. 2017. Aftershocks: Great Powers and Democratic Reforms in the Twentieth Century. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
34.
HaasMark2005. The Ideological Origins of Great Power Politics 1789-1989. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
35.
HadeniusAxelTeorellJan. 2007. “Pathways from Authoritarianism.” Journal of Democracy18 (1): 143–57.
36.
HorowitzMichaelMcDermottRoseStamAllan. 2005. “Leader Age, Regime Type, and Violent International Relations.” Journal of Conflict Resolution49 (5): 661–85.
37.
IacusStefanoKingGaryPorroGiuseppe. 2011. “Causal Inference without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching.” Political Analysis19:1–24.
38.
ImbensGuidoWooldridgeJeffrey. 2009. “Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation.” Journal of Economic Literature47 (1): 5–86.
39.
KingGaryZengLangche. 2001. “Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data.” Political Analysis9 (2): 137–63.
40.
KrauthammerCharles. 2011. “From Freedom Agenda to Freedom Doctrine.” Washington Post, February 10.
41.
LeedsBrettRitterJeffreyMitchellSaraLongAndrew. 2002. “Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions, 1815-1944.” International Interactions28 (3): 237–60.
42.
LevinDov H. 2013, 829. Meddling in the Ballot Box: The Causes of Great Power Electoral Interventions. Chicago, IL: APSA.
43.
LevinDov H.2016. “When the Great Power Gets a Vote: The Effects of Great Power Electoral Interventions on Election Results.” International Studies Quarterly60 (2): 189–202.
44.
LevinDov H. 2018. “Voting for Trouble? Partisan Electoral Interventions and Terrorism.” Terrorism and Political Violence1–17.
45.
LevinDov H. 2019. “Partisan Electoral Interventions by the Great Powers: Introducing the PEIG Dataset.” Conflict Management and Peace Science36 (1): 88–106.
46.
LowenthalAbraham. 1991. Exporting Democracy: The United States and Latin America. Baltimore, MD: John Hopkins University Press.
47.
MaedaKo. 2010. “Two Modes of Democratic Breakdown: A Competing Risks Analysis of Democratic Durability.” The Journal of Politics72 (4): 1129–43.
48.
MarshallMontyJaggersKeith. 2002. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2002: Dataset Users’ Manual. College Park: University of Maryland.
49.
MartinEdwin. 1994. Kennedy and Latin America. Lanham, MD: University Press of America.
50.
MeernikJames. 1996. “United States Military Intervention and the Promotion of Democracy.” Journal of Peace Research33 (4): 391–402.
51.
MethvanStuart. 2008. Laughter in the Shadows: A CIA Memoir. Annapolis, MD: Naval Institutional Press.
52.
MeyerCord. 1980. Facing Reality: From World Federalism to the CIA. New York: Harper & Row.
53.
MillerJames. 1983. “Taking Off the Gloves: The United States and the Italian Elections of 1948.” Diplomatic History7 (1): 35–56.
54.
MunckGerardoVerkuilenJay. 2002. “Conceptualizing and Measuring Democracy: Evaluating Alternative Indices.” Comparative Political Studies35 (1): 5–34.
NariznyKevin. 2012. “Anglo-American Primacy and the Global Spread of Democracy: An International Genealogy.” World Politics64 (2): 341–73.
57.
NixonRichard. 1978. RN: The Memoirs of Richard Nixon. New York: Grosset & Dunlap.
58.
PecenyMark. 1999. “Forcing Them to Be Free.” Political Research Quarterly52 (3): 549–82.
59.
PeksenDursunCooper DruryA.. 2010. “Coercive or Corrosive: The Negative Impact of Economic Sanctions on Democracy.” International Interactions36:240–64.
60.
PickeringJefferyPecenyMark. 2006. “Forging Democracy at Gunpoint.” International Studies Quarterly50:539–59.
61.
PoznanskyMichael. 2015. “Stasis or Decay? Reconciling Covert War and the Democratic Peace.” International Studies Quarterly59 (4): 629–829
62.
PoznanskyMichael. 2017, 225. Intervention and Secrecy in International Politics. Baltimore, MD: ISA.
63.
PrzeworskiAdamAlvarezMichaelCheibubJoseLimongiFernando. 2000. Democracy and Development. New York: Cambridge University Press.
64.
RabeStephen. 1999. The Most Dangerous Area in the World: John F. Kennedy Confronts Communist Revolution in Latin America. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press.
65.
RabeStephen. 2005. U.S. Intervention in British Guiana: A Cold War Story. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press.
66.
RempelWilliam. 1993. Delusions of a Dictator: The Mind of Marcos as Revealed by His Secret Diaries. New York: Little Brown.
67.
RossMichael. 2001. “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?” World Politics53 (3): 325–61.
68.
RossMichael. 2012. The Oil Curse. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
69.
SalehyanIdeanSirokyDavidWoodReed. 2014. “External Rebel Sponsorship and Civilian Abuse: A Principle Agent Analysis of Wartime Atrocities.” International Organization68 (3): 633–61.
70.
SatloffRobert. 2012. “U.S. Policy and Egypt’s Presidential Runoff: Projecting Clarity, Not Disinterest.” PolicyWatch, 1945, June 1.
71.
SavageJesse. 2017. “Military Size and the Effectiveness of Democracy Assistance.” Journal of Conflict Resolution61 (4): 839–68.
72.
ScottJamesSteeleCarie. 2007. “Assisting Democrats or Resisting Dictators? The Nature and Impact of Democracy Support by the United States National Endowment for Democracy, 1990-99.” Democratization12 (4): 439–60
73.
SeligsonMitchell. 2006. “The Measurement and Impact of Corruption Victimization: Survey Evidence from Latin America.” World Development34 (2): 381–404.
74.
ShalomStephen. 1981. The United States and the Philippines. Philadelphia, PA: ISHI.
75.
ShulmanStephanBloomStephan. 2012. “The Legitimacy of Foreign Intervention in Elections: the Ukrainian response.” Review of International Studies38:445–71.
76.
SiversonRandolphEmmonsJuliann. 1991. “Birds of a Feather: Democratic Political Systems and Alliance Choices in the Twentieth Century.” Journal of Conflict Resolution35 (2): 285–306.
77.
SmithTony. 2012. America’s Mission: The United States and the Worldwide Struggle for Democracy in the Twentieth Century Expanded Edition. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
78.
StuartElizabeth. 2010. “Matching Methods for Causal Inference: A Review and a Look Forward.” Statistical Science25(1):1–21.
79.
SvolikMilan. 2013. “Learning to Love Democracy: Electoral Accountability and the Success of Democracy.” American Journal of Political Science57 (3): 685–702.
80.
TakeyhRay. 2011. “U.S. Must Take Sides to Keep Arab Spring from Islamist Takeover.” Washington Post, March 23.
81.
The Guardian. 1993. “CIA Boss Mans Phone-in to Banish the Bogeyman.” The Guardian, December 2.
82.
TreismanDaniel. 2007. “What Have We Learned About the Causes of Corruption from Ten Years of Cross-national Empirical Research?” Annual Review of Political Science10:211–44.
WagnerAlexanderSchneiderFriedrichHallaMartin. 2009. “The Quality of Institutions and Satisfaction with Democracy in Western Europe—A Panel Analysis.” European Journal of Political Economy25 (1): 30–41.
85.
WalkerScottPearsonFrederic. 2007. “Should We Really “Force Them to Be Free?” An Empirical Examination of Peceny’s Liberalizing Intervention Thesis.” Conflict Management and Peace Science24:37–53.
86.
WeinerTim. 1994. “CIA Spent Millions to Support Japanese Right in 50’s and 60’s.” New York Times, October 9.
87.
WillGeorge. 2011. “Egypt’s Revolution to Win or Lose.” Washington Post, February 9.
88.
WoolseyJames2018. “Interview.” Fox News, February 16.
89.
Yarhi MiloKeren. 2013. “Tying Hands behind Closed Doors: The Logic and Practice of Secret Reassurance.” Security Studies22 (3): 405–35.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
