Recent years have seen growing concern over the use of cyber attacks in wartime, but little evidence that these new tools of coercion can change battlefield events. We present the first quantitative analysis of the relationship between cyber activities and physical violence during war. Using new event data from the armed conflict in Ukraine—and additional data from Syria’s civil war—we analyze the dynamics of cyber attacks and find that such activities have had little or no impact on fighting. In Ukraine—one of the first armed conflicts where both sides deployed such tools extensively—cyber activities failed to compel discernible changes in battlefield behavior. Indeed, hackers on both sides have had difficulty responding to battlefield events, much less shaping them. An analysis of conflict dynamics in Syria produces similar results: the timing of cyber actions is independent of fighting on the ground. Our finding—that cyber attacks are not (yet) effective as tools of coercion in war—has potentially significant implications for other armed conflicts with a digital front.
AndresRichard. 2012. “The Emerging Structure of Strategic Cyber Offense, Cyber Defense, and Cyber Deterrence.” In Array Cyberspace and National Security: Threats, Opportunities, and Power in a Virtual World, 1st ed., translated by ReveronDerek S., 89–104. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
2.
AndressJasonWinterfeldSteve. 2013. Cyber Warfare: Techniques, Tactics and Tools for Security Practitioners. Boston, MA: Elsevier.
3.
AtranScott. 2003. “Genesis of Suicide Terrorism.” Science299 (5612): 1534–39.
4.
AxelrodRobert. 2014. “A Repertory of Cyber Analogies.” In Cyber Analogies, edited by GoldmanEmily O.ArquillaJohn. Monterey, CA: Department of Defense Information Operations Center for Research.
5.
AxelrodRobertIlievRumen. 2014. “Timing of Cyber Conflict.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences111 (4): 1298–303.
6.
BailardCatie Snow. 2015. “Ethnic Conflict Goes Mobile: Mobile Technology’s Effect on the Opportunities and Motivations for Violent Collective Action.” Journal of Peace Research52 (3): 1–15.
7.
BaumMatthew A.ZhukovYuri M.. 2015. “Filtering Revolution: Reporting Bias in International Newspaper Coverage of the Libyan Civil War.” Journal of Peace Research9:10–11.
8.
BejanVladimirParkinWilliam S.. 2015. “Examining the Effect of Repressive and Conciliatory Government Actions on Terrorism Activity in Israel.” Economics Letters133:55–58.
9.
CartwrightJamesJamesW.. 2010. Joint Terminology for Cyberspace Operations. Memorandum. Washington, DC: Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
10.
ChaVictor D.2000. “Globalization and the Study of International Security.” Journal of Peace Research37 (3): 391–403.
11.
ClarkeRichard A.KnakeRobert K.. 2010. Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do about It. The Library of Congress. New York: Harper Collins.
12.
CrabtreeCharlesDarmofalDavidKernHolger L. 2014. “A Spatial Analysis of the Impact of West German Television on Protest Mobilization during the East German Revolution.” Journal of Peace Research52: 269–84.
13.
CzosseckChristianGeersKenneth. 2009. The Virtual Battlefield: Perspectives on Cyber Warfare, vol. 3. Amsterdam, the Netherlands: IOS Press.
14.
DavenportChristianStamAllan. 2006. “Rashomon Goes to Rwanda: Alternative Accounts of Political Violence and Their Implications for Policy and Analysis.” Unpublished manuscript. Accessed January 15, 2017. http://www.gvpt.umd.edu/davenport/dcawcp/paper/mar3104.pdf.
15.
DeibertRonald J.RohozinskiRafalCrete-NishihataMasashi. 2012. “Cyclones in Cyberspace: Information Shaping and Denial in the 2008 Russia–Georgia War.” Security Dialogue43 (1): 3–24.
16.
EndersWalterSandlerTodd. 2000. “Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-series Investigation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution44 (3): 307–32.
17.
EunYong-SooAßmannJudith Sita. 2014. “Cyberwar: Taking Stock of Security and Warfare in the Digital Age.” International Studies Perspectives17:343–60.
18.
GartzkeErik. 2013. “The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War in Cyberspace Back Down to Earth.” International Security38 (2): 41–73.
19.
GeersKenneth. 2015. Cyber War in Perspective: Russian Aggression against Ukraine. Tallinn, Estonia: CCDCOE.
20.
GohdesAnita R.2014. “Pulling the Plug: Network Disruptions and Violence in Civil Conflict?” Journal of Peace Research52 (3): 352–67.
21.
GohdesAnita R.CareySabine C.. 2017. “Canaries in a Coal-mine? What the Killings of Journalists Tell Us about Future Repression.” Journal of Peace Research54 (2): 157–74.
22.
GriniaievSergei. 2004. “Pole bitvy: kiberprostranstvo [The battlefield is cyberspace].” (Po materialam inostrannoj pechati /)Mn: Harvest.
23.
HareForrest. 2012. “The Significance of Attribution to Cyberspace Coercion: A Political Perspective.” In 2012 4th International Conference on Cyber Conflict (CYCON 2012, edited by CzosseckC.OttisR.ZiolkowskiK., 1–15. Tallinn, Estonia: NATO CCD COE
24.
HealeyJason. 2013. A Fierce Domain: Conflict in Cyberspace, 1986 to 2012. Arlington, VA: Cyber Conflict Studies Association.
25.
Il’chenkoOleksandr. 2016. “Rozstily Oleha Kalashnikova i Olesya Buzyny - rik potomu [Shootings of Oleg Kalashnikov of Oles Buzina—a year later].” Segodnya.
26.
JunioTimothy J.2013. “How Probable Is Cyber War? Bringing IR Theory Back In to the Cyber Conflict Debate.” Journal of Strategic Studies36 (1): 125–33.
27.
KelloLucas. 2013. “The Meaning of the Cyber Revolution: Perils to Theory and Statecraft.” International Security38 (2): 7–40.
28.
KisselRichard. 2013. Glossary of Key Information Security Terms. NISTIR 7298, Revision 2. Gaithersburg, MD: National Institute of Standards and Technology, the US Department of Commerce.
29.
KostyukNadiyaZhukovYuri. 2017. “Online Appendix B: Interviews on Cyber and Information Warfare in Ukraine.” Journal of Conflict Resolution.
30.
LemayAntoineFernandezaJosé M.KnightScott. 2010. “Pinprick Attacks, A Lesser Included Case.” In Conference on Cyber Conflict Proceedings, edited by CzosseckC.PodinsK., 183–94. Tallinn, Estonia: CCD COE.
31.
LibickiMartin C.2007. Conquest in Cyberspace: National Security and Information Warfare. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
32.
LibickiMartin C.2009. Cyberdeterrence and Cyberwar. Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.
33.
LibickiMartin C.2011. “Cyberwar as a Confidence Game.” Strategic Studies Quarterly5 (1): 132–46.
34.
LibickiMartin C.2015. “The Cyberwar that Wasn’t.” In Cyber War in Perspective: Russian Aggression against Ukraine, edited by GeersKenneth, 49–54. Tallinn, Estonia: NATO Cyber Center of Excellence, NATO CCD COE.
35.
LiffAdam P.2012. “Cyberwar: A New ‘Absolute Weapon’? The Proliferation of Cyberwarfare Capabilities and Interstate War.” Journal of Strategic Studies35 (3): 401–28.
36.
LynnWilliam J.2010. “Defending a New Domain: The Pentagon’s Cyberstrategy.” Foreign Affairs89 (5): 97–108.
37.
Martin-ShieldsCharles Patrick. 2013. “Inter-ethnic Cooperation Revisited: Why Mobile Phones can Help Prevent Discrete Events of Violence, Using the Kenyan Case Study.” Stability: International Journal of Security and Development2 (3): Art. 58.
38.
MaurerTimGeersKenneth. 2015. “Cyber Proxies and the Crisis in Ukraine.” In Cyber War in Perspective: Russian Aggression against Ukraine, edited by GeersKenneth, 79–86. Tallinn, Estonia: NATO Cyber Center of Excellence, NATO CCD COE.
39.
McGrawGary. 2013. “Cyber War is Inevitable (Unless We Build Security In).” Journal of Strategic Studies36 (1): 109–19.
40.
NyeJoseph S.Jr. 2010. Cyber Power. Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School.
41.
OttisRain. 2010. “From Pitch Forks to Laptops: Volunteers in Cyber Conflicts.” In Conference on Cyber Conflict Proceedings 2010, edited by CzosseckC.PodinsK., 97–109. Tallinn, Estonia: CCD COE.
42.
PapeRobert A.2003. “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism.” American Political Science Review97 (03): 343–61.
43.
PapeRobert A.2014. Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
44.
PevehouseJon C.GoldsteinJoshua S.. 1999. “Serbian Compliance or Defiance in Kosovo? Statistical Analysis and Real-time Predictions.” Journal of Conflict Resolution43:538–46.
45.
PierskallaJan H.HollenbachFlorian M.. 2013. “Technology and Collective Action: The Effect of Cell Phone Coverage on Political Violence in Africa.” American Political Science Review107 (02): 207–24.
46.
RidThomas. 2012. “Cyber War Will Not Take Place.” Journal of Strategic Studies35 (1): 5–32.
47.
RiosBilly K.2009. “Sun Tzu was a Hacker: An Examination of the Tactics and Operations from a Real World Cyber Attack.” The Virtual Battlefield: Perspectives on Cyber Warfare3:143.
SchellingThomas C.1966. Arms and Influence. New Haven, CT: Yale.
52.
SchmittMichael N.1999. “Computer Network Attack and the Use of Force in International Law: Thoughts on a Normative Framework.” Columbia Journal of Transnational Law37:1998–99.
53.
SharmaAmit. 2010. “Cyber Wars: A Paradigm Shift from Means to Ends.” Strategic Analysis34 (1): 62–73.
54.
ValerianoBrandonManessRyan C.. 2014. “The Dynamics of Cyber Conflict between Rival Antagonists, 2001–11.” Journal of Peace Research51 (3): 347–60.
55.
WeidmannNils B.2015. “Communication, Technology, and Political Conflict Introduction to the Special Issue.” Journal of Peace Research52 (3): 263–68.
56.
WoolleyJohn T.2000. “Using Media-based Data in Studies of Politics.” American Journal of Political Science44:156–73.
57.
ZetterKim. 2017. “The Ukrainian Power Grid Was Hacked Again.” Motherboard. Accessed June 15, 2017. http://bit.ly/2jEUqW3.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
