In spite of its long history among scholars of international conflict, empirical evaluations of diversionary theory have produced contrasting—even contradictory— results. We offer three reasons for these differences: choice of unit of analysis; failure to model the reciprocal relationship between threats to the survival of political leaders on one hand, and international conflict participation on the other; and measurement error in operationalizations of the independent variable—the incentive of leaders to divert. We construct an empirical test that addresses all of these concerns. Our analysis of data from Latin America during the period 1960-99 reveals robust evidence in support of diversionary theory. The results also expose the biasing effects associated with the failure to control for reciprocal causation and measurement problems.
Armstrong, J.1967. Derivation of theory by means of factor analysis or Tom Swift and his electronic factor analysis machine. The American Statistician21:17-21.
2.
Atlas Narodov Mira.1964. Moscow: Miklukho-Maklai Ethnological Institute at the Department of Geodesy and Cartography of the State Geological Committee of the Soviet Union.
3.
Beck, Nathaniel, Jonathan N. Katz, and Robert Tucker.1998. Taking time seriously: Time-series cross-section analysis within a binary dependent variable. American Journal of Political Science42:1260-89.
4.
Belkin, Aaron, and Evan Schofer.2003. Toward a structural understanding of coup risk. Journal of Conflict Resolution47:594-620.
5.
Bienen, H., and Nicolas Van De Walle.1989. Time and power in Africa’’American Political Science Review83:19-34.
6.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Randolph M. Siverson .1995. War and the survival of political leaders: A comparative study of regime types and political accountability.’’American Political Science Review89: 841-853.
7.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow .2003. The Logic of Political Survival . Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
8.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, James D. Morrow, Randolph M. Siverson, and Alastair Smith.1999. An institutional explanation of the democratic peace. American Political Science Review93:791-807.
9.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Randoph M. Siverson, and Gary Woller.1992. War and the fate of regimes: A comparative analysis. American Political Science Review86:638-46.
10.
Burrowes, Robert, and Bertram Spector .1973. The strength and direction of relationships between domestic and external conflict and cooperation: Syria, 1961-67. In Conflict behavior and linkage politics, ed. Jonathan Wilkenfeld, 294-324. New York: David McKay.
11.
Canache, Damarys.2002. From bullets to ballots: The emergence of popular support for Hugo Chávez. Latin American Politics and Society44 (1): 69-90.
12.
Chiozza, Giacomo, and Henk E. Goemans .2003. Peace through insecurity: Tenure and international conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution47:443-67.
13.
Chiozza, Giacomo, and Henk E. Goemans .2004. Avoiding diversionary targets . Journal of Peace Research41:423-43.
14.
Collins, John N.1973. Foreign conflict behavior and domestic disorder in Africa . In Conflict behavior and linkage politics, ed. Jonathan Wilkenfeld, 251-93. New York: David McKay.
15.
Cranmer, Skyler J., and Randolph M. Siverson .2008. Demography, democracy, and disputes: The search for the elusive relationship between population growth and international conflict. Journal of Politics70:794-806.
16.
Dassel, Kurt, and Eric Reinhardt.1999. Domestic strife and the initiation of violence at home and abroad. American Journal of Political Science43:56-85.
17.
Davies, Graeme A. M.2002. Domestic strife and the initiation of interstate conflicts . Journal of Conflict Resolution46:672-92.
18.
Denton, F.H.1966. Some regularities in international conflict, 1820-1949 . Background9:283-96.
19.
Downs, George W., and David M. Rocke .1994. Conflict, agency, and gambling for resurrection: The principal-agent problem goes to war. American Journal of Political Science38:362-80.
20.
Enterline, Andrew J., and Kristian S. Gleditsch .2000. Threats, opportunity, and force: Repression and diversion of domestic pressure, 1948-1982. International Interactions26:21-53.
21.
Fearon, James D.2002. Ethnic structure and cultural diversity around the world . Paper presented at the Annual Meetings of the American Political Science Association, August 28, Boston .
22.
Fearon, James D., and David Laitin.2003. Ethnicity, insurgency, and civil war . American Political Science Review97:75-90.
23.
Feierabend, Ivo K., Rosalind L. Feierabend, and Betty A. Nesvold .1972. Social change and political violence: Cross-national patterns. In Anger, Violence, and Politics: Theories and Research, ed. Ivo K. Feierabend, Rosalind L. Feierabend, and Ted Robert Gurr, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
24.
Finer, Samuel E.1962. The man on horseback. London: Pall Mall.
25.
Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor.1991. Election cycles and war. Journal of Conflict Resolution53:567-87.
26.
Gelpi, Christopher.1997. Democratic diversions: Governmental structure and the externalization of domestic conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution41:255-82.
27.
Ghosn, Faten, and Glenn Palmer.2003. Codebook for the militarized interstate dispute data, version 3.0. Correlates of War 2 Project. Penn State University.
28.
Gochman, Charles S.1991. Interstate metrics: Conceptualizing, operationalizing, and measuring the geographic proximity of states since the congress of Vienna . International Interactions17:93-112.
29.
Goemans, Hein.2000. War and punishment: The causes of war termination and the first world war. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
30.
Goemans, Hein.2009. Which way out? The manner and consequences of losing office . Journal of Conflict Resolution52:771-94.
31.
Greene, William H.1997. Econometric analysis. 3rd ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
32.
Gujarati, Damodar N.1995. Basic econometrics. 3rd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
33.
Haas, Michael.1968. Social change and national aggressiveness, 1900-1960. In Quantitative international politics: Insights and evidence, ed. J. David Singer, 214-44. New York: The Free Press.
34.
Hazlewood, Leo.1973. Externalizing systemic stress: International conflict as adaptive behavior. In Conflict behavior and linkage politics , ed. Jonathan Wilkenfeld.New York: David McKay.
35.
Hazlewood, Leo.1975. Diversion mechanisms and encapsulation processes: The domestic conflict-foreign conflict hypothesis reconsidered. In Sage International Yearbook of Foreign Policy Studies, Vol. III, ed. Patrick J. McGowan, 148-90. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
36.
Heldt, Birger.1999. Domestic politics, absolute deprivation, and the use of armed force in interstate territorial disputes, 1950-1990. Journal of Conflict Resolution43:451-78.
37.
Hess, Gregory D., and Athanosios Orphanides .1995. War politics: An economic, rational-voter framework. American Economic Review85:828-46.
38.
Jackman, Robert W.1978. The predictability of coups d’etat: A model with African data American Political Science Review 72:1262-75.
39.
James, Patrick.1987. Externalization of conflict: Testing a crisis-based model . Canadian Journal of Political Science20:573-98.
40.
James, Patrick, and Athanasios Hristoulas .1994. Domestic politics and foreign policy: Evaluating a model of crisis activity for the United States. Journal of Politics56:327-48.
41.
Jones, Daniel M., Stuart A. Bremer, and J. David Singer .1996. Militarized interstate disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, coding rules, and empirical patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science15 (2): 163-213.
42.
Keshk, Omar M. G.2003. CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares. The Stata Journal3:157-67.
43.
Keshk, Omar M. G., Brian Pollins, and Rafael Reuveny.2004. Trade still follows the flag: The primacy of politics in a simultaneous model of interdependence and armed conflict . Journal of Politics66:1155-79.
44.
Kim, Jae-On, and Charles W. Mueller .1978. Introduction to factor analysis: What it is and How to do it. Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 13-016. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
45.
Lake, David A.1995. Ethnic conflict and international intervention. Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. IGCC Policy Briefs. Paper PB03.
46.
Leeds, Brett Ashley . 2003. Do alliances deter aggression? The influence of military alliances on the initiation of militarized interstate disputes. American Journal of Political Science47:427-39.
47.
Leeds, Brett Ashley, and David R. Davis .1997. Domestic political vulnerability and international disputes. Journal of Conflict Resolution41:814-34.
48.
Leeds, Brett Ashley, Jeffrey M. Ritter, Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, and Andrew G. Long.2002. Alliance treaty obligations and provisions, 1815-1944. International Interactions28:237-60.
49.
Levy, Jack.1989. The diversionary theory of war: A critique. In Handbook of war Studies, ed. Manus Midlarsky , 259-88. London: Unwin-Hyman.
50.
Levy, Jack S., and Lily I. Vakili .1993. Diversionary action by authoritarian regimes: Argentina in the Falklands/Malvinas case. In The internationalization of communal strife, ed. M. I. Midlarsky, 118-46. London : Routledge.
51.
Lewis-Beck, Michael.1989. Applied regression: An introduction. Sage University Paper Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 22-013. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
52.
Londregan, John B., and Keith T. Poole .1990. Poverty, the coup trap, and the seizure of executive power. World Politics42:151-83.
53.
Mack, Andrew.1975. Numbers are not enough: A critique of internal/external conflict behavior research. Comparative Politics7:597-618.
54.
Maddala, G.S.1983. Limited dependent and qualitative variables in econometrics . Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Marshall, Monty G., and Keith Jaggers.2002. Polity IV project: Political regime characteristics and transitions, 1800-2002. Version p4v2002e [Computer File]. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland. http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/polity/index.htm .
57.
Marshall, Monty G., and Donna Ramsey Marshall .2007. Coup d’Etat Events, 1960-2006. Dataset, Center for Systemic Peace, Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Researchwww.systemicpeace.org (accessed February 20, 2007).
58.
Miller, Ross A.1995. Domestic structures and the diversionary use of force . American Journal of Political Science39:760-85.
59.
Miller, Ross A.1999. Regime type, strategic interaction, and the diversionary use of force. Journal of Conflict Resolution43:388-402.
60.
Mitchell, Sara McLaughlin, and Brandon C. Prins .2004. Rivalry and diversionary Uses of force. Journal of Conflict Resolution48:937-61.
61.
Moore, Will H., and David J. Lanoue .2003. Domestic politics and U.S. foreign policy: A study of cold war conflict behavior. Journal of Politics65:376-96.
62.
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Christopher J. Anderson.1999. Domestic support and diversionary external conflict in Great Britain. Journal of Politics. 61:799-814.
63.
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Kenneth N. Bickers .1992. Domestic discontent and the external use of force. Journal of Conflict Resolution36:25-52.
64.
Morgenthau, Hans J.1963. Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace . 3rd ed. New York: Knopf.
65.
Most, Benjamin A., and Harvey Starr.1980. Diffusion, reinforcement, geopolitics, and the spread of war. American Political Science Review74:932-46.
66.
Oakes, Amy.2006. Diversionary war and Argentina’s invasion of the Falkland Islands. Security Studies15 (3): 431-63.
67.
Oneal, John R., and Jaroslav Tir .2006. Does the diversionary use of force threaten the democratic peace? Assessing the effect of economic growth on interstate conflict, 1921-2001. International Studies Quarterly50:755-79.
68.
Pickering, Jeffrey, and Emizet F. Kisangani .2005. Democracy and diversionary military intervention: Reassessing regime type and the diversionary hypothesis . International Studies Quarterly49:23-43.
69.
Rummel, Rudolph.1963. Dimensions of Conflict Behavior within and between Nations . General Systems8:1-50.
70.
Russett, Bruce M., and John R. Oneal .2001. Triangulating peace: Democracy, interdependence, and international organizations. New York : W. W. Norton and Company.
71.
Simmel, Georg.1898. The persistence of social groups. American Journal of Sociology3:662-98.
72.
Singer, J. David, Stuart Bremer, and John Stuckey.1972. Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820-1965. In Peace, war, and numbers , ed. Bruce Russett, 19-48. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
73.
Siverson, Randolph M., and Harvey Starr.1991. The diffusion of war. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
74.
Smith, Alastair.1995. Alliance formation and war. International Studies Quarterly39:405-26.
75.
Smith, Alastair.1996. Diversionary foreign policy in democratic systems. International Studies Quarterly40:133-53.
76.
Sprecher, Christopher, and Karl DeRouen Jr.2002. Israeli military actions and internalization-externalization processes. Journal of Conflict Resolution46:244-59.
77.
Stinnett, Douglas M., Jaroslav Tir, Philip Schafer, Paul F. Diehl, and Charles Gochman .2002. The correlates of war project direct contiguity data, version 3. Conflict Management and Peace Science19 (2): 58-66.
78.
Strange, Hannah.2010. Falklands residents firm in face of ‘one fist against colonialism.’Times Online, February 24. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/article7038520.ece (accessed March 1, 2010).
79.
Summers, Robert, and Bettina Aten.2006. Penn world table version 6.2. Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices. University of Pennsylvania.
80.
Tanter, Raymond.1966. Dimensions of conflict behavior within and between nations, 1958-1960. Journal of Conflict Resolution10:41-64.
81.
Waltz, Kenneth N.1979. Theory of international politics. New York: McGraw-Hill.
82.
White, Halbert.1980. A heteroscedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroscediasticity. Econometrica48:817-38.
83.
Wilkenfeld, Jonathan.1968. Domestic and foreign conflict behavior of nations. Journal of Peace Research5:56-69.
84.
Wilkenfeld, Jonathan.1969. Some further findings regarding the domestic and foreign conflict behavior of nations. Journal of Peace Research6:147-56.
85.
Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, and Dina A. Zinnes .1973. A linkage model of domestic conflict behavior. In Conflict behavior and linkage politics , ed. Jonathan Wilkenfeld, 325-56. New York: David McKay.
86.
Zinnes, Dina A., and Jonathan Wilkenfeld .1971. An analysis of foreign conflict behavior of nations. In Comparative foreign policy: Theoretical essays, ed. Wolfram F. Hanrieder, 167-213. New York: David McKay.
Supplementary Material
Please find the following supplemental material available below.
For Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons License, all supplemental material carries the same license as the article it is associated with.
For non-Open Access articles published, all supplemental material carries a non-exclusive license, and permission requests for re-use of supplemental material or any part of supplemental material shall be sent directly to the copyright owner as specified in the copyright notice associated with the article.
