The transition in Afghanistan is manifestly beset by multiple challenges, yet behind obvious issues such as insecurity and corruption lie a range of deeper problems related to the way in which the Afghan political system has developed. Trust deficits, real conflicts of interest, and parallel and potentially conflicting systems of authority, have affected both the mass population—many of whom feel disconnected and disenfranchised—and political elites, which remain severely divided. The combination of a presidential system with a highly centralized formal state structure had fostered patrimonialism at the expense of institutional development. Unless and until these problems are addressed, the likelihood that any Afghan government will be able to take the lead in confronting the country’s problems remains low.
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