The problem with everybody’s favourite solution in Syria

Abstract

As the United States, Canada, and other Western and world allies attempt to devise workable policies vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis, a common thread links many if not most putative policy “solutions”: the need to engage local coalitions of regional actors to provide the military muscle to defeat the Islamic State, thereby setting the stage for a workable political solution to restore stability to the country as a whole. Given the experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan, neither the US nor its allies are particularly keen on deep involvement in Syria. Unfortunately, cultivating and encouraging increased involvement from regional actors (including Sunni Arab nations with, ostensibly, a “vested interest” in defeating the Islamic State) risks promoting long-term instability and conflict as regional political rivals—in particular Iran and Saudi Arabia—exploit and exacerbate the conflict for their own purposes. In a worst-case scenario, this could even contribute to a broader regional war along sectarian (Sunni–Shia) lines.