The postcommunist states of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union have witnessed levels of electoral volatility higher than both Western Europe and Latin America, levels that have deleterious effects on party consolidation and representative democracy in the region. This article presents a model of postcommunist legislative electoral volatility, testing explanations developed in Western Europe and Latin America and refining them for the different experi ence of the twin transition to both democracy and capitalism. Pooled cross-sectional time series regression analysis is conducted on 67 legislative elections in 19 countries, covering the 1991-2006 period. Results demonstrate that, contrary to previous studies in other regions and of the first decade of the postcommunist era, economic determinants of volatility are of minimal salience. Rather, the institutional arrangement of the electoral system is found to be critically important, as is the more thorough “Leninist” or “Soviet” legacy in the states of the former Soviet Union.
Bartolini, S., & Mair, P. ( 1990). Identity, competition, and electoral availability: The stabilisation of European electorates. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
2.
Bielasiak, J. ( 2002). The institutionalization of electoral and party systems in postcommunist states. Comparative Politics, 34, 189-210.
3.
Birch, S. ( 2000, April). The effects of mixed electoral systems in Eastern Europe. Paper presented at the annual conference of the University Association for Contemporary European Studies, Budapest, Hungary.
4.
Birch, S. ( 2003). Electoral systems and political transformation in post-communist Europe. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.
5.
Clark, T.D., & Wittrock, J.N. (2005). Presidentialism and the effect of electoral law in postcommunist systems: Regime type matters. Comparative Political Studies, 38, 171-188.
6.
Cox, K., & Schoppa, L. ( 2002). Interaction effects and mixed-member electoral systems: Theory and evidence from Germany, Japan, and Italy. Comparative Political Studies, 35, 1027-1053.
Ekiert, G., & Hanson, S.E. ( 2003). Capitalism and democracy in Central and Eastern Europe: Assessing the legacy of communist rule. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
9.
Evans, G. ( 2006). The social bases of political divisions in post-communist Eastern Europe. Annual Review of Sociology, 32, 245-270.
10.
Fish, M.S. ( 2005). Democracy derailed in Russia: The failure of open politics . Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
11.
Gallagher, M., Laver, M., & Mair, P. ( 1995). Representative government in modern Europe. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
12.
Hale, H.E. ( 2005). Why not parties in Russia? Democracy, federalism, and the state. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
13.
Hanson, S.E. ( 1995). The Leninist legacy and institutional change. Comparative Political Studies, 28, 306-314.
14.
Herron, E.S., & Nishikawa, M. ( 2001). Contamination effects and the number of parties in mixed-superposition electoral systems. Electoral Studies, 20, 63-86.
15.
Jowitt, K. ( 1992). The Leninist legacy. In I. Banac (Ed.), Eastern Europe in revolution (pp. 207-224). Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
16.
Kitschelt, H., Mansfeldova, Z., Markowski, R., & Tka, G. ( 1999). Post-communist party systems: Competition, representation, and inter-party cooperation. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
17.
Kitschelt, H., & Smyth, R. ( 2002). Programmatic party cohesion in emerging postcommunist democracies: Russia in comparative context. Comparative Political Studies, 35, 1228-1256.
18.
Kopstein, J.S., & Reilly, D.A. ( 2000). Geographic diffusion and the transformation of the postcommunist world. World Politics, 53, 1-37.
19.
Kramer, G.H. ( 1971). Short-term fluctuations in US voting behavior, 1896-1964 . American Political Science Review, 65, 131-143.
20.
Lewis-Beck, M.S. ( 1998). Economics and elections: The major Western democracies . Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
21.
Lipset, S.M., & Rokkan, S. ( 1967). Cleavage structures, party systems, and voter alignments . In S. M. Lipset & S. Rokkan (Eds.), Party systems and voter alignments (pp. 1-64). Toronto, Canada: Free Press.
22.
Mainwaring, S., & Scully, T.R. ( 1995). Party systems in Latin America. In S. Mainwaring & T. R. Scully (Eds.), Building democratic institutions (pp. 1-34). Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
23.
Mair, P. ( 1997). Party system change: Approaches and interpretations. Oxford, UK: Clarendon.
24.
Miller, W.L., Grodeland, A.S., & Koshechkina, T.Y. (2001). A culture of corruption? Coping with government in post-communist Europe. Budapest, Hungary: Central European University Press.
25.
Nishikawa, M., & Herron, E.S. ( 2004). Mixed electoral rules’ impact on party systems . Electoral Studies, 23, 753-768.
26.
North, D.C. ( 1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance . Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
27.
Pacek, A.C. ( 1994). Macroeconomic conditions and electoral politics in East Central Europe. American Journal of Political Science, 38, 723-744.
28.
Pedersen, M. ( 1979). The dynamics of European party systems: Changing patterns of electoral volatility. European Journal of Political Research , 7, 1-26.
29.
Pedersen, M. ( 1983). Changing patterns of electoral volatility in European party systems, 1948-1977: Explorations in explanation. In H. Daalder & P. Mair (Eds.), Western European party systems: Continuity and change (pp. 29-66). London, UK: SAGE .
30.
Przeworski, A. ( 1991). Democracy and the market. Cambridge , UK: Cambridge University Press.
31.
Remmer, K.L. ( 1991). The political impact of economic crisis in Latin America in the 1980s. American Political Science Review, 85, 777-800.
32.
Roberts, K.M., & Wibbels, E. ( 1999). Party systems and electoral volatility in Latin America: A test of economic, institutional, and structural explanations. American Political Science Review, 93, 575-590.
33.
Rose, R., Munro, N., & White, S. ( 2001). Voting in a floating party system: The 1999 Duma election . Europe-Asia Studies, 53, 419-443.
34.
Sartori, G. ( 1976). Parties and party systems. Cambridge , UK: Cambridge University Press.
35.
Taagepera, R., & Shugart, M. ( 1989). Seats and votes: The effects and determinants of electoral systems. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
36.
Tavits, M. ( 2005). The development of stable party support: Electoral dynamics in post-communist Europe. American Journal of Political Science , 49, 283-298.
37.
Tucker, J.A. ( 2006). Regional economic voting: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, 1990-1999. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Whitefield, S. (2002). Political cleavages and postcommunist politics. Annual Review of Political Science, 5, 181-200.
38.
Wittenberg, J. ( 2006). Crucibles of political loyalty: Church institutions and electoral continuity in Hungary. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
