Estimation of half-life with confidence interval for phosphatidylethanol (PEth) in blood based on two consecutive measurements

Abstract

Background

Phosphatidylethanol (PEth) is formed in erythrocyte membranes after alcohol consumption. When abstaining, the PEth level falls with a rate proportional to its concentration, and a short apparent PEth half-life supports abstinence. We here derive algorithms for calculating unbiased half-lives and confidence intervals (CIs).

Methods

PEth was measured using Acquity UPC2-MS/MS systems in clinical blood samples from out-patients. We identified 6989 individuals having taken two or more PEth samples within 28 days. One measurement pair was randomly selected from everyone. We derived methods for and calculated PEth half-lives and corresponding 95% CIs for exact, rounded, and truncated data, on closed form, Monte Carlo methods and No-U-turn sampling.

Results

The peak of the PEth half-life was at 8.62 days. Peak PEth half-life was 8.72 days for men and 8.47 days for women (P = 0.028) and on age: 8.55 days for age 18–39 years, 8.56 for age 40–59 years and 8.87 for 60+ years (P = 0.026). PEth concentration did not significantly affect half-life. CIs on a closed form performed excellently on exact data, with misclassification of abstinence for 16 out of 6989 observations (0.23%). When rounding or truncating data, misclassification occurred using Monte Carlo methods in 104 (1.5%) and 127 (1.8%) of the observations and using closed form algorithms in 855 (12.2%) and 777 (11.1%).

Conclusion

Unbiased PEth half-lives and CIs can be calculated and put into use in laboratory information systems. Rounding or truncating data used for PEth half-life calculation widened CIs with misinterpretations of alcohol abstinence.