Understanding, managing and communicating geomechanical mining risk is critical in supporting decisions at all levels of a mining company. This paper addresses how different risk analysis tools and procedures can be used effectively and brings attention to the limitations of some of the most popular tools. A strong case is made for a critical assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management tools. Finally, the paper discusses the challenges of understanding and communicating geomechanical mining risk, given the asymmetry of knowledge and information by decision-makers in mining companies.
AtkinsAC, RitchieM.2019. Improving board assurance of technical and operational risks in mining. In: Proceedings of the first international conference on mining geomechanical risk. Australian Centre for Geomechanics ; p. 97 – 110.
2.
BaecherGB, ChristianJT.2003. Reliability and statistics in geotechnical engineering. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
3.
BahraniN, HadjigeorgiouJ.2018. Influence of stope excavation on drift convergence and support behavior: insights from 3D continuum and discontinuum models. Rock Mech Rock Eng. 51: 2395 – 2413. doi: 10.1007/s00603-018-1482-5
4.
BrownET.2012. Risk assessment and management in underground rock engineering – an overview. J Rock Mech Geotech Eng. 4 (3): 193 – 204. doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1235.2012.00193
5.
CarterTG.2014. Guidelines for use of the scaled span method for surface crown pillar stability assessment. In: International conference on applied empirical design methods in mining. Lima: Sociedad Peruana de Geoingenieria.
6.
DershowitzWS, EinsteinHH.1988. Characterizing rock joint geometry with joint system models. Rock Mech Rock Eng. 21: 21 – 51. doi: 10.1007/BF01019674
7.
EinsteinHH.1996. Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering. Tunnel Underground Space Technol. 11 (2): 141 – 155. doi: 10.1016/0886-7798(96)00014-4
8.
EinsteinHH.2003. Uncertainty in rock mechanics and rock engineering – then and now. In: Proceedings of the 10th ISRM Congress. Lisbon: International Society for Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering ; p. 281 – 293.
9.
FillionMH, HadjigeorgiouJ.2016. Implications of collecting additional data for slope design in an open pit operation. J South Afr Inst Min Metall. 116: 357 – 366. doi: 10.17159/2411-9717/2016/v116na1
10.
FillionMH, HadjigeorgiouJ.2017. Quantifying the impact of additional laboratory tests on the quality of a geomechanical model. Rock Mech Rock Eng. 50 (5): 1097 – 1121. doi: 10.1007/s00603-016-1160-4
11.
FillionMH, HadjigeorgiouJ.2018. Quantifying the influence of geotechnical borehole inclination on collecting joint orientation data. Trans Inst Mining Metall: Sect A. Mining Technol. 127 (1): 26 – 40.
12.
FillionMH, HadjigeorgiouJ.2019. Recommendations for a quantitative description of joint orientation data. Geotech Geol Eng. 37: 1503 – 1514. doi: 10.1007/s10706-018-0703-8
13.
GillDE, CorthésyR, LeiteMH.2005. Determining the minimal number of specimens for laboratory testing of rock properties. Eng Geol. 78 (1–2): 29 – 51. doi: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.10.005
14.
GrenonM, HadjigeorgiouJ.2003. Drift reinforcement design based on discontinuity network modelling. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci. 40 (6): 833 – 845. doi: 10.1016/S1365-1609(03)00044-3
15.
GritziotisG.2015. Final report vol. 1: mining health, safety and prevention review. Toronto: Ministry of Labour.
16.
HadjigeorgiouJ.2012. Where do the data come from?Min Technol. 121 (4): 236 – 247. doi: 10.1179/1743286312Y.0000000026
17.
HadjigeorgiouJ, GrenonM.2017. Drift reinforcement design based on discrete fracture network (DFN) modelling. In: FengX-T, editor. Rock mechanics and engineering , vol. 4. Milton Park: Taylor & Francis Group ; p. 123 – 146.
18.
HadjigeorgiouJ, HarrisonJP.2012. Uncertainty and sources of error in rock engineering. In: QianQ., ZhouX., editors. ISRM congress of rock mechanics, harmonising rock engineering and the environment. Beijing ; p. 2063 – 2067.
19.
HammanECF, VenterJ.2019. Using qualitative risk assessment as a leading indicator for geotechnical risk in mining. In: Proceedings of the first international conference on mining geomechanical risk. Perth: Australian Centre for Geomechanics ; p. 127 – 156.
20.
Health and Safety Executive. 2001. Reducing risks, protecting people: HSE's decision-making process. Norwich, UK: Health and Safety Executive. p. 78.
21.
HebblewhiteBK.2019. Geotechnical risk in mining methods and practice: critical issues and pitfalls of risk management. In: Proceedings of the first international conference on mining geomechanical risk. Australian Centre for Geomechanics ; p. 299 – 307.
22.
ISO 31000. 2018. Risk management – guidelines. Geneva: International Organization for Standardization.
23.
ISRM. 2007. The complete ISRM suggested methods for rock characterization, testing and monitoring: 1974–2006. In UlusayR, HudsonJA, editor. Lisbon: ISRM.
24.
JoughinWC, MuakaJJM, MpunziPDP, SewnunD, WesselooJ.2016. ‘A risk-based approach to ground support design’. In: NordlundE, JonesTH, EitzenbergerA, editor. Proceedings of the eighth international symposium on ground support in mining and underground construction. Luleå: Luleå University of Technology.
25.
KiureghianAD, DitlevsenO.2009. Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter?Struct Saf. 31: 105 – 112. doi: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2008.06.020
26.
LupoJF.2019. Geotechnical risk-informed decision-making in mining. In: Proceedings of the first international conference on mining geomechanical risk. Perth: Australian Centre for Geomechanics ; p. 61 – 68.
27.
Ontario Ministry of Labour. 2017. Risk assessment and management for mines and mining plants. Toronto: Ontario Ministry of Labour.
28.
PriestDS, BrownET.1983. Probabilistic stability analysis of variable rock slopes. Trans Inst Mining Metall. 92: A1 – A12.
29.
QuailR.2012. Defining your taste for risk. In: Corporate risk Canada , Spring. p. 25 – 30.
30.
ReaganRT, MostellerF, YoutzC.1989. Quantitative meanings of verbal probability expressions. J Appl Psychol. 74 (3): 433 – 442. doi: 10.1037/0021-9010.74.3.433
31.
RogersS, ElmoD, BeddoesR, DershowitzW.2009. Mine scale DFN modelling and rapid upscaling in geomechanical simulations of large open pits. In: Proceedings of the international conference on large open pits. Santiago, Chile.
32.
StaceyTR, TerbruggePJ, WesselooJ.2007. Risk as a rock engineering design criterion. In: PotvinY, StaceyTR, HadjigeorgiouJ, editor. Challenges in deep and high stress mining. Perth: Australian Centre for Geomechanics ; p. 19 – 25.
33.
Standards Australia. 2009. AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009: risk management – principles and guidelines. Sydney: Standards Australia.
34.
SteffenOKH.1997. Planning of open pit mines on a risk basis. J South Afr Inst Mining MetallMarch-April): 47 – 56.
35.
SteffenOKH, ContrerasLF, TerbruggePJ, VenterJ.2008. A risk evaluation approach for pit slope design. In: Proceedings of the 42nd US rock mechanics symposium and 2nd US–Canada rock mechanics symposium. Alexandria: American Rock Mechanics Association.
36.
TerbruggePJ, WesselooJ, VenterJ, SteffenOKH.2006. A risk consequence approach to open pit slope design. J South Afr Inst Mining Metall. 106 (July): 503 – 511.
37.
TverskyA, KahnemanD.1986. Rational choice and the framing of decisions. J Bus. 59 (4): S251 – S278. Part 2: The Behavioral Foundations of Economic Theory (Oct., 1986). doi: 10.1086/296365
38.
WilesTD.2006. Reliability of numerical modelling predictions. Int J Rock Mech Min Sci. 43: 454 – 472. doi: 10.1016/j.ijrmms.2005.08.001
