Conflict Management and Peace Science

Given the general neglect of space and place in the study of conflict and conflict processes- especially in contrast to the temporal context- this article makes a plea for a more explicit and extensive attention to the spatial contexts of social phenomena. In so doing, the paper discusses the importance of space, the relationship between space and time, how space and spatiality can be studied, and the continuing challenges that come with the study of space, and of combining the study of space and time in our analyses of social phenomena.

This article focuses on the definition of states-an issue that has been a central concern for the Correlates of War Project in particular and international relations in general. The paper argues that we need to move away from the crude dichotomous conceptualization of state system membership, which is far too simple and rigid, to the conceptualization of state membership as a continuous attribute. Two underlying dimensions of stateness are suggested. The first refers to the internal organization of the geopolitical units (GPUs) and focuses on the size, autonomy and cohesion (SAC Index) of the GPU, while the second reflects the way in which a GPU relates to other GPUs and concentrates on interdependence, interaction and recognition (IIR Index). Conceptualizing "stateness" in this way represents a richer and more sophisticated theoretical approach.

This paper provides a forecast of the likely consequences of ongoing US military activity in Afghanistan, and assesses the implications of a change in the current US policy toward that nation. We use a game theoretic, bounded rationality model, called the Expected Utility model, to analyze the stability of the political and economic systems in Afghanistan, given both the domestic and international context. We undertook two analyses, one in December 2001 and a second in June 2002. Thus far all forecasts appear to be in line with our observations on the current sequence of events. Furthermore, we found that a continued, robust US military presence in Afghanistan is necessary to assure political and economic stability. Without continued, substantial US support for the current regime, it is likely that an Islamic dictatorship, with the potential to support terrorist activities, will replace the current semi-democratic system.

This article introduces an altemative to the study of economic interdependence and interstate conflict. Typically, scholars have relied upon relative levels of economic activity to characterize symmetry in interdependence. Instead, I argue that the key to understanding the role of symmetry in interdependence and conflict lies in the relationship between a state's exit (opportunity) costs and the costs it is willing to bear in the face of political conflict with another state. Asymmetry with respect to two states' exit costs/threshold relationships can generate bargaining power that constrains the use of force. This approach improves our understanding of the complex relationship between interdependence and conflict. It also suggests that current measurements of economic interdependence may fail to identify situations where interdependence plays a role in conflict.

Geographical factors in general and proximity in particular have a pervasive influence on negative as well as positive interaction between states. Traditionally, proximity has been measured by contiguity or by great-circle distance. We argue that it is important to distinguish between the different levels of interaction opportunities open to contiguous states and propose to operationalize this as the length of the shared land boundary. Data on boundary lengths can be used, e.g., in the study of the relationship between natural resources and conflict or in the study of the diffusion of conflict. To date, such datasets have only been available for the most recent years. We present a new dataset covering the entire Correlates of War period, explain the measurement procedures, and offer comparisons with other more limited datasets.