This paper provides a forecast of the likely consequences of ongoing US military activity in Afghanistan, and assesses the implications of a change in the current US policy toward that nation. We use a game theoretic, bounded rationality model, called the Expected Utility model, to analyze the stability of the political and economic systems in Afghanistan, given both the domestic and international context. We undertook two analyses, one in December 2001 and a second in June 2002. Thus far all forecasts appear to be in line with our observations on the current sequence of events. Furthermore, we found that a continued, robust US military presence in Afghanistan is necessary to assure political and economic stability. Without continued, substantial US support for the current regime, it is likely that an Islamic dictatorship, with the potential to support terrorist activities, will replace the current semi-democratic system.
Get full access to this article
View all access options for this article.
References
1.
Alexander, Yonah and Michael S. Swetnam .2001. Usama bin Laden's al-Qaida: Profile of a Terrorist Network. Dobbs Ferry, NY: Transnational Publishers.
2.
Banks, Jeffrey.1990. "Equilibrium Behavior in Crisis Bargaining Games ," American Journal of Political Science34:599-614.
3.
Bamett, Rubin.1995. The Search For Peace in Afghanistan: From Buffer State to Failed State. New Haven: Yale University Press.
4.
___. 2002 (2nd ed). The Fragmentation of Afghanistan: State Formation and Collapse in the International System. New Haven: Yale University Press.
5.
Bergen, Peter L.2001. Holy War, Inc.: Inside The Secret World of Osama Bin Laden . New York: Free Press .
6.
Black, Duncan.1958. The Theory of Committees and Elections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
7.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, David Newman, and Alvin Rabushka, (eds.). 1985. Forecasting Political Events: The Future of Hong Kong. New Haven: Yale University Press.
8.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, David Newman, and Alvin Rabushka, (eds.). 1996. Red Flag Over Hong Kong. Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House Publishers.
9.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Frans N. Stokman, (eds.). 1994. European Community Decision Making: Models, Applications, and Comparisons. New Haven: Yale University Press.
10.
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce.2002. Predicting Politics. Columbus : Ohio State University Press.
11.
Feder, Stanley.1995. "Factions and Policon: New Ways to Analyze Politics ," in H. Bradford Westfield (ed.), Inside CIA's Private World. New Haven: Yale University Press, pp. 274-292.
12.
Gabriel, Mark.2002. Islam and Terrorism: What the Quran Really Teaches About Christianity, Violence and the Goals of the Islamic Jihad. Lake Mary, FL: Charisma House.
13.
Gohari, M.J.2001. The Taliban: Ascent to Power. Oxford : Oxford University Press.
14.
Goodson, Larry.2001. Afghanistan's Endless War: State Failure, Regional Politics, and the Rise of the Taliban. Seattle: The University of Washington Press.
15.
Gunaratna, Rohan.2002. Inside Al Qaeda: Global Network of Terror. New York: Columbia University Press.
16.
Hardy, Roger. October 19,2001. "The Roots of Terrorism." Special Report from the BBC News Service London.
17.
Hellen, Nicholas. October 21, 2001. "Ultra Zealots: If you think Bin Laden is extreme - some Muslims want to kill him because he's soft." Sunday Times. London.
18.
http://www.politicalresources.net/afghanistan.htm (rich resource for political parties
Kakar, M. Hassan.1997. Afghanistan: The Soviet Invasion and the Afghan Response, 1979-1982. Berkeley: University of Califomia Press.
23.
Kaplan, Robert.2001. Soldiers of God: With Islamic Warriors in Afghanistan and Pakistan. New York: Vintage Books.
24.
Kugler, Jacek, and Yi Feng, (eds.). 1997. "Special Issue: The Expected Utility Approach to Policy Decision Making: Assessments, Forecasts, and Strategies ," International Interactions. 23: 233-394.
25.
Lemke, Doug.2002. Regions of War and Peace. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press.
26.
Nojumi, Neamatollah.2002. The Rise of the Taliban in Afghanistan: Mass Mobilization, Civil War, and the Future of the Region. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
27.
Rashid, Ahmad.2001. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. New Haven: Yale University Press.
28.
Tanner, Stephen.2002. Afghanistan: A Military Histoy form Alexander the Great to the Fall of the Taliban. Cambridge, MA: Da Capo Press.
29.
Williams, Paul.2002. Al Qaeda: Brotherhood of Terror. New York: Alpha Book and Pearson Educational System .
30.
Worth, Robert. October 13, 2001. "The Deep Intellectual Roots of Islamic Terror." New York Times.
31.
Zinn, Howard, and Anthony Amove.2002. Terrorism and War (Open Media Pamphlet Series) New York: Seven Stories Press.
