Bulletin of Sociological Methodology/Bulletin de Méthodologie Sociologique

Election Poli Methodology and the 2007 French Presidential Elections - Chronicle of a Recurring Problem: The 2002 presidential élection polls will be remembered for a long time because their error in predictions had dramatic consequences. What influence did those elections have on French opinion poli research and was it able to revise its methods? Was it able to improve its voting estimates? Research has shown that French polis are now more able to distinguish between voting for the left and the right than in 2002. However, French polls have not improved their capability to estimate intentions to vote for major candidates. The discrepancies between means for twelve polis published during the last week before voting vary from 1.8 points for Royal to 3.2 points for Sarkozy and 3.8 points for Le Pen. These results show that the estimation error for Le Pen is the same in 2007 as in 2002, but in the opposite direction. As in 2002, samples were biased concerning level of education - strong under-representation of the less educated - as well as for voting profile - strong non-declaration of voting for Le Pen. One can thus conclude that the problem of estimating the extreme right vote remains in its entirety and that polling institute methods have not changed greatly. Cooperation between the institutes and researchers should permit further explanations and possible solutions.

Analyse textuelle par mots associés en sciences politiques - les titres 2006 de la politique et de la « parapolique » internationales : Un système d'analyse textuelle par co-occurrence de mots clefs, Calliope, analyse un ensemble de titres de rapports quotidiens des médias de 2006 sur des événements politiques et « parapolitiques » fourni par le journal, Intelligence. Ces événements politiques (utilisation publiquement avouée du pouvoir politique) et parapolitiques (utilisation non avouée du pouvoir politique) sont divisés en trois périodes successives de quatre mois, chaque période fournit un « diagramme stratégique » avec un axe de centralité et un axe de densité. Des graphiques longitudinaux de mots clefs "émergeants" et "déclinants" sont aussi fournis. Ces résultats permettent une analyse et une interprétation originales des événements de 2006.

Analyzing discursive practices in social science - The CEDITEC symposium at the University Paris XII on 27 April 2007: This symposium was organized around the question of the convergence between discourse analysis and certain currents of qualitative social science. The symposium was divided into two parts: "Ethnography, Field Work, Actor", what happens when social actors express themselves during surveys; and "Lexicometry, Corpus, Announcement", conceming certain analytical, conceptual et technical tools generated by the sciences of language, and, in particular, text analysis software and its use in current sociology.

La conférence internationale sur la méthodologie des enquêtes longitudinales : Du 12 au 14 juillet 2006, à l'université d'Essex, Peter Lynn, avec le « UK Longitudinal Studies Centre » et l'« International Association of Survey Statisticians » (IASS), a organisé la conférence internationale sur la « Methodology of Longitudinal Surveys » (MOLS 2006). Le BMS a rassemblé des matériaux des sites Web de MOLS 2006 et de l'« International Statistical Institute », dont l'IASS est une section, pour constituer ce compte-rendu de la conférence.