Abstract
The transformation of the mean and variance of a normally distributed random variable was considered through three different nonlinear functions: sin(x), cos(x), and xk, where k is a positive integer. The true mean and variance of the random variable after these transformations is theoretically derived within, and verified with respect to Monte Carlo experiments. These statistics are used as a reference in order to compare the accuracy of two different linearization techniques: analytical linearization used in the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and statistical linearization used in the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). This comparison demonstrated the advantage of using the unscented transformation in estimating the mean after transforming through each of the considered nonlinear functions. However, the variance estimation led to mixed results in terms of which linearization technique provided the best performance. As an additional analysis, the unscented transformation was evaluated with respect to its primary scaling parameter. A nonlinear filtering example is presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the theoretically derived results.
1. Introduction
It is necessary in state [1] and parameter [2,3] estimation problems to estimate the mean and covariance of a random signal after propagating through a nonlinear function. The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) [4] and Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) [5] are two different estimators commonly used for nonlinear state estimation purposes. The EKF uses an analytical linearization for dealing with the nonlinearity in the transformation, while the UKF features a statistical linearization approach called the “unscented transformation” [5]. Both filters have been used for various sensor fusion applications, such as Global Positioning System/Inertial Navigation System (GPS/INS) integration [6–10], bearing-only tracking [11,12], and relative navigation [13]. The EKF and UKF have also been used for robotics applications including inertial and vision sensor fusion [14–16], tracking of people using mobile robots [17,18], surgical robots [19], indoor attitude and heading estimation [20], robot localization [21–23], and Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) [24–27].
The differences in the performance of the EKF and UKF have been compared in various efforts; however, these comparisons were either empirical or based on simulation studies, and do not offer analytical insight into the linearization process. Additionally, the comparison of these two filters has led to inconsistent conclusions among different research groups. Some researchers have reported for GPS/INS sensor fusion [10], spacecraft attitude estimation [28], bearing-only tracking [11,12], radar tracking [29], and simulation studies of the Van der Pol oscillator, induction machine, reversible reaction, and gas turbine hybrid systems [30] that the UKF performs consistently and significantly better than the EKF. However, other researchers found that the UKF only outperformed the EKF for GPS/INS sensor fusion under large initialization errors [9,31–33]. Slight performance advantage of the UKF over the EKF was reported for angles-based navigation [34], GPS/INS position estimation [35], state estimation of induction motors [36], and aerodynamic parameter estimation [37]. Some studies of the problems of aircraft attitude estimation [6,8], ballistic missile tracking [38] and quaternion motion for human tracking [39] found insignificant differences in EKF and UKF performance. Due to the inconsistencies in the reported EKF and UKF performance, a detailed evaluation method was considered necessary. Every data point that can be provided becomes important in shaping the overall impressions on these two filters. Since most existing comparison and analysis for nonlinear filters is experimentally based, some theoretical analysis is beneficial to the research field.
The main contribution of this paper is a detailed comparison of the analytical linearization technique of the EKF with the unscented transformation of the UKF with respect to three different nonlinear functions, using analytically determined values of the true statistics after the transformation. The analytical derivations provide a computationally efficient truth reference for the nonlinear transformation of statistics. Specifically, the considered functions are sin(
To facilitate the analytical derivations, the distribution of the random signal is assumed to be Gaussian, with known mean and standard deviation. This distribution was selected because the propagation of Gaussian noise through nonlinear equations is a commonly considered problem in the technical community [6–13], and is the distribution that is assumed by both the EKF and UKF. Other nonlinear estimators such as particle filters can be used to approximate other distributions if necessary [1,7,40,41].
This rest of the paper is organized as follows. First, the true mean and variance after the transformation of a zero mean normally distributed variable are considered in Section 2. In Section 3, these relationships are extended in order to determine the true statistics after the transformation of a non-zero mean random variable. In Section 4, the comparison of the analytical and statistical linearization techniques is presented. A nonlinear filtering example is provided in Section 5, followed by the conclusions in Section 6.
2. Nonlinear Transformations of a Zero Mean Normally Distributed Variable
Consider a normally distributed random variable,
Let
2.1. Polynomial Functions of Zero Mean Variables
The nonlinear function
Thus, the mean of
where !! is the double factorial operator [43]. To calculate the variance of
Using (5) and (6), the variance of
2.2. Trigonometric Functions of Zero Mean Variables
Consider the nonlinear function
By applying (5), the expectation in (8) gives
For
Applying (5) leads to the following simplifications:
Next, the variances for the sine and cosine functions are calculated using (6). The variance of the sine function is given by:
The variance of the cosine function is given by:
This method of using the statistical properties of the polynomial function from (5) and utilizing the Taylor series expansion can be applied to other nonlinear functions. The details are omitted here for conciseness, but this method was applied to some additional nonlinear functions to demonstrate its usefulness. The results from this analysis are summarized in Table 1.
Mean and Variance for Nonlinear Transformations of a Zero Mean Normal Variable
3. Nonlinear Transformations of a Non-Zero Mean Normally Distributed Variablet1
Consider a normally distributed random variable,
3.1. Polynomial Functions of Non-Zero Mean Variables
First the nonlinear function
where the expectations of
The variance is then determined using (6) and (14) to be:
3.2. Trigonometric Functions of Non-Zero Mean Variables
Next the nonlinear function
Using the previously determined expectations of the sine and cosine functions with respect to
The variance is then derived from (6) and (17), as well as Table 1:
For the nonlinear function
The results of this analysis are summarized in Table 2.
Mean and Variance for Nonlinear Transformations of a Non-Zero Mean Normal Variable
4. Comparison of Linearization Techniques in Nonlinear Filters
Consider a nonlinear transformation of the form
These values were calculated using (21) and (22) for each of the three considered nonlinear transformations and the results are summarized in Table 3.
Mean and Variance Estimates from Analytical Linearization
The Unscented Transformation (UT) is a statistical linearization technique used by the UKF. For the considered scalar case, the UT consists of the calculation of three sigma points:
where
where
Since the linearization process is a function of the prior mean and variance, plots were generated to illustrate the differences between the analytical and statistical linearization techniques. Additionally, the Monte Carlo method was included to verify the theoretically derived results, i.e.,
The differences between the Monte Carlo and theoretical estimates for the mean and variance are negligible for all of the considered cases, thus demonstrating the validity of the theoretically derived equations. For the unscented transformation, four different cases of
First, two cases of the nonlinear function

Mean and Variance Estimate Errors for y = (x + 0.1)2
It is shown in Figure 1 that the AL error increases as the prior variance increases, while the UT provides perfect estimation of both the mean and the variance. As expected, the Monte Carlo method provides near perfect estimation of the statistics. For

Mean and Variance Estimate Errors for y = (x + 0.1)3
For the case shown in Figure 2, the AL again shows an increasing error trend with prior variance. The UT provides perfect mean estimation, but the variance estimate is now only slightly more accurate than the AL, with
The next considered case is

Variance Estimate Error for y = sin(x)
Next, two non-zero mean cases are considered for the sine function. The mean and variance estimates for

Mean and Variance Estimate Errors for y = sin(x+π/4)

Mean and Variance Estimate Errors for y = sin(x+π/2)
For the cases shown in Figure 4 and Figure 5, the UT provides more accurate mean estimation; however, the AL provides a more accurate variance estimate. Comparable cases for the cosine function were generated, and yielded equivalent results to those of the sine function, as expected, following the co-function identities,
Figure 4 and Figure 5 show specific cases of the prior mean in order to give snapshots of the performance. To more fully capture the effects of different means, the AL and UT were evaluated for the sine function over a set of values for the standard deviation ranging from 0 to 2 and for the mean ranging from 0 to

Analytical Linearization Error for y = sin(z)

Unscented Transformation Error for y = sin(z)
There are two important observations to make in Figure 6 and Figure 7. First, for all cases of prior mean and standard deviation, the UT yields more accurate estimation of the mean. Second, the variance estimate errors of the AL are sometimes better than the UT, and vice versa. This is demonstrated by the different shapes of the contour graphs, with AL having higher errors for smaller means and the UT having higher errors for larger means. Because of this observation, neither the AL nor UT can claim better estimation of the variance for all cases.
5. Nonlinear Filtering Example
In order to demonstrate the usefulness of the derived analytical relationships, an example of a nonlinear filtering problem is considered. Consider the following discrete-time nonlinear system:
where
First, the true state trajectory is determined for an initial state,

Nonlinear Filtering Example: State and Measurement
Using this measurement, each filter algorithm is executed for 100 discrete time steps, each using assumed initial conditions:
where

Nonlinear Filtering Example: Estimation Error
Negligible differences are shown in Figure 9 between the Monte Carlo and theoretical filters. To quantify the performance of each filter, the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated, and is shown in Table 4.
Nonlinear Filtering Example: Root Mean Square Error
From these results, a slight performance advantage is demonstrated for the UKF over the EKF, and a more significant performance advantage is shown for the Monte Carlo and theoretical filters over both the EKF and the UKF. This improvement comes purely from the removal of the linearization errors that are incurred by the EKF and UKF. The particle filter was able to achieve the highest accuracy, due to the removal of the Gaussian noise assumption that is required by the other methods. This indicates that even with perfect linearization, Kalman-based filtering techniques may not be as effective as particle filtering.
6. Conclusions
The results of a comparison of analytical linearization and unscented transformation techniques to recover the mean and variance after three different nonlinear transformations were presented in this paper. The true statistics were theoretically derived for each of the considered functions in order to compare the errors of the different methods. These theoretical results were verified with respect to Monte Carlo simulations. For all of the considered cases, the unscented transformation yielded equal or greater accuracy in the estimation of the mean. However, mixed conclusions were reached about the accuracy of the variance. For some cases the analytical linearization obtained greater accuracy than the unscented transformation, while for other cases the opposite was noticed. Another interesting observation is that for each function, increasing
Footnotes
7. Acknowledgments
This research was partially supported by NASA grant # NNX10AI14G.
