The original purpose of this study was to examine the midterm projections of oil and gas production generated by the 1979 version of the Department of Energy's Midterm Oil and Gas Supply Modeling System (MOGSMS) for the 1979 Annual Report to Congress.q These forecasts applied to conventional oil and gas, onshore and offshore, in the lower 48 states from 1985 to 1995, inclusive. The specific objective of the work was to quantify the sensitivity of these projections to potential uncertainty in some of the model's key elements. But more generally, this exercise is viewed as but one good example of how to estimate the uncertainty in forecasts coming from a large computer-based model.
Energy Information Administration (1978). “Medium Run Oil and Gas Supply Model 1977 Data Update.” Research Memorandum 78/015.
2.
Energy Information Administration (1979). Annual Report to Congress, 1978, Vol. 3. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy.
3.
Energy Information Administration (1980). Annual Report to Congress, 1979, Vol. 3. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy.
4.
HarrisC. M.HirshfeldD. S. (1979). “Sensitivity Analysis of DOE Forecasts of Midterm Oil and Gas Supply for the 1978 Annual Report to Congress.” Final Project Report to National Bureau of Standards, C. M. Harris &Associates, Washington, D.C.
5.
HoffmanK. L.JoelL. S. (1980). “Methodological Description of the Midterm Oil and Gas Supply Modeling System.” Project Report, Center for Applied Mathematics, National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.C.
6.
McKayM. D.BeckmanR. J.ConoverW. J. (1979). “A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code.” Technometrics21:239-245.
7.
U.S. Geological Survey (1975). Circular 725: Geological Estimates of Undiscovered Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources in the United States. Prepared for the Federal Energy Administration.
