Abstract
Since the end of World War II, there have been six world oil supply disruptions, in 1951, 1956, 1967, 1973, 1979, and 1980-one year in six, and the frequency seems to be increasing. This danger will continue, for there are many sources of disruption. Although the probability of any one type in any one year is low, the chances of escaping them all for several years are also low.
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