Understanding of oil and gas production decline rates is important in order to predict future behaviour and give policy guidelines. Most studies propose exponential and/or hyperbolic decline rates. Econometric techniques are extensively used in the present study to establish that logistic decline rates best fit the UKCS data and that the majority offields have experienced complex logistic decline. Newer fields with relatively smaller reserves were found to have higher annual mean decline and decline decelerating rates - a property that poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the industry.
BP, (2001). Submission to the P1UEnergy Review, London, September2001.
4.
ChenZ., (1991). “A Detecting Technique for Production Rate Decline-Curve Analysis with Residual Plots”. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) eLibrary Paper No. 22313; Dallas, Texas, USA.
5.
Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), (2001). “Trends in United Kingdom Continental Shelf Production of Oil”, Energy Trends, London, June, 2001.
6.
IkokuC.U., (1985). Economic Analysis and Investment Decisions, John Wiley and Sons, New York, USA.
7.
HannessonR., (1998). Petroleum Economics: Issues and Strategies of Oil and Natural Gas Production, Quorum Books, London, UK.
8.
HubbertM.K., (1956). “Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuels”. Drilling and Production Practice, American Petroleum Institute, Washington D.C.
9.
HubbertM.K., (1962). Energy Resources, National Academy of Sciences Publication 1000-D, National Resource Council, Washington D.C.
10.
HubbertM.K., (1967). “Degree of Advancement of Petroleum Exploration in the United States”. American Association of Petroleum Geologists, Bulletin51, pp. 2207-2227.
11.
International Energy Agency, (2003). World Energy Investment Outlook — 2003 Insights, OECD, Paris, p.142.
12.
LefkovitsH.C.MatthewsC.S. (1958). “Application of Decline Curves to Gravity-Drainage Reservoirs in the Stripper Stage”. Transactions, AIME, 213, 275-280.
13.
LutherL.C. (1985). “Linearization and Regression Analysis Technique Predicts Hyperbolic Decline in Reserves”. Oil and Gas Journal, August 26, 1985, 78-79.
14.
KempA.G., (1990). “An Assessment of UK North Sea Oil and Gas Policies: Twenty-five years on”. Energy Policy, 18(7), 599-623.
15.
KempA.G.KasimA.S., (2002). “An Analysis of Production Decline Rates in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS)”. North Sea Study Occasional Paper No. 87, University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
16.
MeyerP. (1994). “Bi-logistic Growth”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier Science Inc; New York, USA; 47:89-102.
17.
Performance and Innovation Unit (PIU), (2001). Oil — Initial Scoping Note, The Cabinet Office, London, August2001.
18.
RowlandD.A.LinC. (1985). “New Linear Method Gives Constants of Hyperbolic Decline”. Oil and Gas Journal, January 11, 1985, 86-90.
19.
SliderH.C., (1968). “A Simplified Method of Hyperbolic Decline Curve Analysis”. SPE eLibrary Paper No. 1936; Dallas, Texas, USA.
20.
SpiveyJ.P. (1986). “A New Algorithm for Hyperbolic Decline Curve Fitting”. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) eLibrary Paper No. 15293; Dallas, Texas, USA.
21.
StrightD.H. (1983). “Decline Curve Analysis in Fractured Low Permeability Gas Wells in the Piceance Basin”. Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) eLibrary Paper No. 11640; Dallas, Texas, USA.
22.
TooleS.T.GristD.M. (2003). “Oil and Gas Recovery Behaviour in the UKCS Basins”, Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) eLibrary Paper No. 83982; Dallas, Texas, USA.
23.
WatkinsG.C., (2002). “Characteristics of North Sea Oil Reserve Appreciation”. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 42, 335-372.