This paper reports the results of an effort to shed some light on the relationship that might exist between enhanced standards and single-vehicle passenger car highway fatalities. Quantification of this relationship is not an easy task. Not surprisingly, the literature on modeling the relationship between fuel economy and highway fatalities is very scant. Our analytic framework consists of two submodels: a corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) submodel and a single-vehicle highwayfatalities submodel. Some of the variables that enter the CAFE relationship affect single-vehicle fatalities, as well. The results of this study are not unequivocal in every respect. However, they indicate that enhanced standards and automobile safety need not be at odds with each other.
BelsleyDavid A.KuhEdwinWelschR.E. (1980). Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of CoIIinearity. New York: John Wiley &Sons.
2.
BelsleyDavid A (1991). Conditioning Diagnostics: CoIIinearity and Weak Data in Regression. New York: John Wiley &Sons.
3.
Bureau of the Census (1991). Money Income of Households, Families, and Persons in the United States : 1990. Consumer Income Series P-60 No. 174 (Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOC), August.
4.
CrandallRobert W.GruenspechtHowardKeelerTheodore K.LaveLester B. (1986), Regulating the Automobile. Washington D.C.: The Brookings Institution.
5.
CrandallRobert W.GrahamJohn G. (1989). “The Effect of Fuel Economy Standards on Automobile Safety.” Journal of Law and Economics (April): 97-118.
6.
Energy Environmental Analysis (1990). Analysis of the Fuel Economy Boundary for 2010. Study prepared for Martin Marietta Energy System, Contract No.l X SB 08248
7.
EvansLeonard (1982). Car Mass and Likelihood of Occupant Fatality. SAE Technical Paper Series, 820807 (Warrendale, PA: Society of Automotive Engineers, Inc).
8.
EvansLeonard (1985). “Car Size and Safety: Results From Analyzing U.S. Accident Data” from the Proceedings of the Tenth International Technical Conference Experimental Safety Vehicle. Oxford, England (July 1-4).
9.
EvansLeonard (1991). Traffic Safety and the Driver. New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
Federal Highway Administration (1980). Characteristic of1977Licensed Drivers and their Travel: Report 1,1977. National Personal Transportation Study. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT., October.
13.
Federal Highway Administration (1983a). Characteristics of1983 Licensed Drivers and their Travel. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT.
14.
Federal Highway Administration (1983b). Person Trip Characteristics. Report 11, 1977 National Personal Transportation Study. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT.
Federal Highway Administration (1986a). Speed Monitoring Program Procedural Manual for National Maximum Speed Limit. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT.
17.
Federal Highway Administration (1986b). Analysis of National and Regional Travel Trends. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT, October.
18.
Federal Highway Administration (1990a). 1990 Driver License Administration Requirements and Fees. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT.
19.
Federal Highway Administration (1990b). Highway Safety Performance: 1988 Fatal Injury Accident Rates on Public Roads in the U.S. A Report of the Secretary of Transportation to the U.S. Congress. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT, June.
20.
Federal Highway Administration (1991). 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Study: Current Status and Preliminary Results. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT, January14.
21.
Federal Highway Administration (1992). Summary of Travel Trends: 1990 Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey Advance Copy. Washington, D.C.: USDOT, March.
22.
GarrottW. RileyMonkMichael W.ChristoJeffrey P. (1988). Vehicle Inertial Parameters-Measured Value and Approximation. SAE Technical Paper Series #881767. Passenger Car Meeting and Exposition; Dearborn, Michigan: Oct. 31-Nov. 3.
23.
GateleyDermot (1980). “Individual Discount rates and the Purchase and Utilization of Energy Using Durables: Comment.” The Belt Journal of Economics (Spring): 373-4.
24.
General Accounting Office (1976). Effectiveness, Benefits, and Costs of Federal Safety Standards for Protection of Passenger Car Occupants. Report to the Committee on Commerce, U.S. Senate. July7.
25.
General Accounting Office (1991). Highway Safety: Have Automobile Weight Reductions Increased Highway Fatalities. Report to Congressional Requesters, GAO/PEMD-92-1, October.
26.
GreeneDavid L. (1990). “CAFE or Price?: An Analysis of the Effects of Federal Fuel Economy Regulations and Gasoline Price on New Car MPG, 1978-89.” The Energy Journal11(3): 37-57.
27.
GusheeDavid E. (1991). “Reducing Gasoline and Diesel Use in Transportation.” CRS Review. (March-April).
28.
HackneyJames R. (1991). Difference Between the Safety of Lighter and Heavier Weight Passenger Cars As Assessed from NCAP and FMVSS No. 208 data. Washington,D.C.: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, U.S. DOT, June
29.
HausmanJ.A. (1979). “Individual Discount Rates and the Purchase and Utilization of Energy-Using Durables.” The Bell Journal of Economics (Spring): 33-54.
30.
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (1990). “Where is Safety in the Fuel Economy Debate.” Status Report. (September): 1-5.
31.
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (1993). “Hybrid III for all Compliance Tests but not consumer Testing, NHTSA Decides.” Status Report (December), p.6.
32.
JohnsonPKleinT.M.LevyP.MaxwellD. (1980). The Effectiveness of the 55 MPH New Maximum Speed Limit as a Life Saving Benefit. Report No. DOT-HS-805-694 (Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT), October.
33.
JohnstonJ. (1984). Econometric Methods. New York: McGraw Hill.
34.
JokschH.C. (1976). Analysis of Future Effects of Fuel Shortage and Increased Small Car Usage Upon Traffic and Deaths and Injuries. Final Report to NHTSA, Contract #DOT-TSC-839, PB-251 892.
35.
JonesIan S.WhitfieldR.A. (1984). The Effects of Restraints Use and Mass in “Downsized” Cars. SAE Technical Paper #840199. February.
36.
JudgeGeorge G.HillR. CarterLutkepohlHelmutLeeTsoung-Chao (1985). The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
37.
KahaneCharles J. (1990). Effects of Car Size on the Frequency and Severity of Rollover Crashes. Washington D.C.: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Office of Standards Evaluation, May.
38.
KhazzoomJ. Daniel (1976). “An Indirect Least-Squares for Overidentified Equations.” Econometrica. (July): 741-750.
39.
KhazzoomJ.Daniel (1986a). An Econometric Model Integrating Conservation Measures in the Residential Demand for Electricity. Greenwich, Conn: JAI Press.
40.
KhazzoomJ.Daniel (1986b). “The Demand for Home Insulation: A Study in the Household Demand for Conservation,” in Auer, Peter L. and David Douglas, eds. Advances in Energy Systems and Technology. Vol 5: 167-318. New York: Academic Press.
41.
KhazzoomJ.Daniel (1991). Testimony Before the Senate Subcommittee on the Consumer of the Committee on Commerce. Science and Transportation. Reauthorization of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration S.1012 (April, 11).
42.
KhazzoomJ.Daniel (1994). An Econometric Model of Fuel Economy and Single-Vehicle Highway Fatalities. Supplement to Advances in the Economics of Energy and Resources. Greenwich, Conn: JAI Press.
43.
LundAdrian K.WolfeArthur C. (1989). Changes in the Incidence of Alcohol-Impaired Driving in the United States; 1973-1986. Washington, D.C.: Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, February.
44.
MalliarisA.C.HsiaH.GouldH. (1976). Concise Description of Auto Fuel Economy and Performance in Recent Model Years. Automotive Engineering Congress and Exposition, Detroit. Feb 23-27, 76. Warrendale, Penn: Society of Automotive Engineers Document No. 760045.
45.
MurrellJ.DillardHeavenrichRobert M. (1990). Downward Trend in Passenger Car Fuel Economy-A View of Recent Data. Washington, D.C.: U.S.EPA. January.
46.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1982). Sixth Annual Report to the Congress. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT, January.
47.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1989a). Study of the Effectiveness of State Motor Vehicle Inspection Programs. Final Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT, August.
48.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1989b). An Improved Driver Entry System for Young Novice Drivers. Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOT, September.
49.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1989c). Fatal Accident Reporting System 1989: A Decade of Progress. Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOT, Annual.
50.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1990a). Drunk Driving Facts. (Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOT), September.
51.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1990b). General Estimates System 1989. Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOT, Annual.
52.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1990c). Occupant Protection Facts. Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOT, August.
53.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1990d). 1989 Traffic Fatality Facts. Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOT, October.
54.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1990e). The Effects of the 65 MPH Speed Limit Through 1989. A Report to the Congress. Washington, D.C.: U.S. DOT, December.
55.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (19900. State and Provincial Licensing Systems — Comparative Data 1990. Washington, D.C.; U.S. DOT.
56.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (1990g). Restraint System Use in 19 U.S. Cities: 1989 Annual Report. Washington, D.C.: U.S.DOT, June.
57.
National Research Council (1992). Automotive Fuel Efficiency: How Far Should We Go. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
58.
Office of Technology Assessment (1991). Improving Automobile Fuel Economy: New Standards, New Approaches. Report to the Congress. Washington, D.C.: OTA.
59.
PartykaSusan C.BoehlyWilliam A. (1989). Passenger Car Weight and Injury Severity in Single-Vehicle Non-Rollover Crashes. (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration). Paper presented at the Twelfth International Technical Conference on Experimental Safety Vehicle, Goteberg, Sweden, May 29-June 1, 1989.
60.
PeltzmanSam (1975). “The Effects of Automobile Safety Regulation.” Journal of Political Economy. (Aug-Dec): 677-725.
61.
RichterB.ZobelR. (1982). Aspects of the Passive Safety Motor Vehicles. Paper presented at the E.S.V. Conference, Kyoto, Japan.
62.
RobertsonLeon S. (1991). “How to Save Fuel and Reduce Injuries in Automobiles.” Journal of Trauma. (January): 107-109.
63.
SwindelBenee F. (1974). “Instability of Regression Coefficients Illustrated.” The American Statistician. (May): 63-65.
64.
SwindelBenee F. (1981). “Geometry of Ridge Regression Illustrated.” The American Statistician. (February): 12-15.
65.
WonnacottThomas H.WonnacottRonald J. (1990). Instructor's Manual to Accompany Introductory Statistics for Business and Economics. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
